Member Info for Mehmet66

The Marine Energy Council submitted evidence to Parliament advising 3% of GBE spending should be committed to tidal. MEC make this £250m, which suggests they are working to the £8.3bn figure that has generally been used since Labour reversed its initial pledge of £20bn funding. The £8.3bn figure is at risk because of uncertainty about how much warm home spending will eventually come from the GBE pot. Even with a very pessimistic guess, however, it still seems reasonable to expect tens of millions going to tidal.

Remember too that through the National Wealth Fund both UK hydrogen at ITM, and UK mining for metals and lithium in Cornwall, have received significant investment, so again it isn't unrealistic to expect real funds to be committed to tidal. Of course the oil industry is getting £20bn thrown its way for spending on the unproven and unnecessary technology of carbon capture and storage, so money is certainly there, but UK seems to have a very corrupt government right now.

It is good news for SAE that concern about grid connections, curtailment of wind energy, and lack of storage is receiving more and more attention. Recent report by the FT says it is now costing every household £4/month in curtailment fees to turn off renewables, so I think we are reaching a point where it will be politically impossible for Government to reject storage projects.

Thanks for this Munin, you've redeemed yourself being beaten to it by SAE (of all people) with the additional analysis.

And thanks for the reminder on revenues. SAE have long said each turbine equated to about £110k/month in revenue, which fits this.

Your basic assumption on Scottish Enterprise and Meygen revenue is also mine. I think the main funders are probably content to see the revenue stay in Meygen, and probably see it used to support Meygen if necessary, and the ringfence is so it doesn't get sent off to fund anything in other parts of the SAE group in Wales or wherever. Perfectly reasonable and I suspect will prove a positive arrangement at some point.

That 5-year statistic does underline how there really isn't a sector without MeyGen.

We must also be getting very close to 100GWh generated, if it was 50GWh in February 2023 and the turbines are now able to put out 1.4GWh in a month.

It would also be good, when that record is set, to see the breakdown of how long it took to reach each 50GWh (and each 25GWh).

First 50GWh took from 2016 to 2023. Whatever happens, it looks like the second 50GWh is only going to take 2023 to 2025.

Impressive.

@Mister_Tidal

I fully believe tidal is going to happen, it is just a case of if the UK wants to be the one to benefit. UK had the lead in wind energy and then gave it up thanks to a tradition of bad and investment-averse government. Denmark and others cleaned up the profits on a lot of UK innovation. Question is if it will be the same again with tidal or if some lessons have been learned. If UK doesn't make it happen then Japan or France or maybe Canada will, with Proteus well-positioned in the first two markets.

To be a little more positive and a re-run of the precise UK experience with wind (paying Danish companies to develop UK wind power) could still see a success at Meygen or elsewhere, just with the profits of turbine development and maintenance sent overseas. UK would still get a growing and more reliable power supply with declining costs of production, some but not as much job creation, and would probably still see some benefit in associated R&D, as well as intangibles such as financing, law and other elements of the tidal economy. Owing to the City and bad government, this is just the way the UK economy naturally points without interventions to steer it in more productive directions.

@mister_tidal

No you are very right - I was referring to the Quinbrook-owned project completing in Q1 2025, but I fail to see how the first operational infrastructure at the SAE-owned USEP won't generate (or supply!) some interest, especially if commencement happens alongside some breaking-ground on the first SAE-owned BESS.

I was told by someone close to the sector a few months back that Meygen has to happen or tidal in the UK is done for. I was in agreement with that sentiment. Awful as Starmer and this Labour government are, cutting as they are at the budget and remit for GBE, I don't think they can totally end support for the GBE project. Even in the event that they tried to, I think Scottish Government would step-up with further support and Westminster's betrayal of the tidal sector would just be one more factor accelerating the return of the SNP. The next turbines at Meygen are contracted to start turning early 2027, with the CFD agreed, and so at some point news will have to come here. I feel that a lot of the upside in the share price is now stored in Meygen, with its revenue potential being sizeable but for now almost totally priced-out.

And, as always, interest rates. It is already good to have a 100% increase in the SAE share price while the rest of the sector saw values cut in half. Two members of the BoE committee voting for a .5% cut in the interest rate, and all analysts predicting a number more of .25% this year, should also provide a tailwind for equities.

Quinbrook have the first BESS slated for completion Q1 2025, which is basically inside the next five weeks. We know from the final payment a month ago that 10% of batteries were already on-site since as of then, and from regular project updates that everything has gone to-schedule and on-budget.

This means that within approximately the next five weeks we should have an RNS saying that the first stage of the USEP is now installed and operational, with planning permissions recently finalised for the second stage, which SAE will own and operate. This should represent an encouraging signal to the market without need of doing purely promotional RNSs. It is also genuinely helpful to know that data centres are part of the envisaged mix for land use at Uskmouth. I am not sure anyone needs to waste time discussing if it is important that an MP used the word "generation" for electricity that comes from a battery, rather than perhaps the word "supply".

In terms of future financing, note also that Abundance debentures are up to date and have been rolled-over to 2029 with considerable investor support in the voting, ensuring that the relationship there is obviously durable.

Normally I'd beware anything that seems too much like it's attached to a current craze but in my view this is useful information. It doesn't excite me as a project, but clearly a data centre adds value to the energy that will be available at Uskmouth. Although past talk of underwater data centres at Meygen seemed a little fanciful, this is a feasible and deliverable option at Uskmouth. Data centres need a highly reliable energy supply, which BESS naturally offer because batteries obviously represent hours of backup. Talk of data centres, and local political figures visiting Uskmouth, also helps tie-in the site to national and regional development agendas in Wales, in the same way that Meygen gets a lot of support simply as a result of being in Scotland. Considering all the land at Uskmouth, and question marks of how it might be used, with solar having seemed like one option, it is good to get clarity on what's on the table.

I think a fundraising is unlikely (whether or not it was suggested maliciously on a forum of retail investors). The last annual report specifically noted SAE has moved out of the position of needing to resort to intermittent equity raises. This is also a good example of where the board being invested is helpful, because they will also prefer to avoid dilution. Messaging across recent months, especially from the CEO, of the small tight ship that is now being run at SAE, and the laser focus on costs, also suggests that things will be under control.

Financial close and construction commencement for BESS Phase 2, and turning-on of Phase 1, remain for me the significant milestones to watch for in the coming months.

No problem, Mister_Tidal .. likewise I find chartists interesting while never placing too much value on what they say, but didn't mean anything too harsh by you (or your sister!) either.

Anyway, here's to more to come.

Thanks, Tidal_Lover.. happy that I seem to have accidentally summoned an RNS with it!

Respectfully I'd say that bouncing between 2p and 3p on a share that within the last year traded at 0.9p is a good performance.

This feels like the best run for the share price we've seen in a while; it increases the entry price (and therefore the likely holding price) on newcomers buying-in upon significant news. Rises that take place outside of any news are also helping set a floor that is more valuable than the ceiling highs or price discovery attained during any spike.

My expectation for useful upcoming events includes:

February BoE meet on interest rates, with a number of institutions predicting as many as half a dozen rate cuts in 2025, and the economy certainly in need of them.

Great British Energy funding was due an announcement in January. While the details and Labour's trustworthiness are both uncertain, I feel that something will have to get announced and it at the very least shouldn't harm SAE.

Construction slated for March - and so financial close assumed - on Usk BESS Phase 2. This one is curious to me as it seems strange to have construction beginning so soon and without financial close yet in the bag; at the very least there'll presumably be some RNS on construction beginning. Perhaps SAE now has enough funds to begin some of the preliminary civils before financial close, and - though only guesswork - with forecasted interest rate cuts, and any borrowing pegged to base rate, perhaps they're holding out until rates come down slightly. Hard to say. The start of operations at BESS Phrase 1 in a couple of months, even if it's basically a Quinbrook project, will imo reflect well on SAE and the entire concept of the Uskmouth Sustainable Energy Park.

The Meygen BESS decision from Scottish Government, which will hopefully go the right way and help lock-in that entire project.

It will relate to any announcements from GBE, as well as perhaps an increase in the tidal/marine energy ringfence, but if I'm not mistaken the next phase of Meygen is due to be turning in the water and delivering power to the grid in only a little over two years from now - spring 2027. At some point a regular news flow concerning how that's developing would seem necessary. So far all we've had is the Proteus MOU.

There's also the scoping opinion on phase 3 of the BESS at Uskmouth, and finally with all four turbines in the water I expect Meygen will go over 100GWH total exported to the grid sometime before long. SAE did a good amount of press at both 30GWH and 50GWH total generation, so 100GWH seems like it will certainly be a notable milestone and confident signal of where the sector, or certainly MeyGen, is currently at.

Plenty to cautiously look forward to anyway, and with luck this current uplift in price is investors recognising that.

Think fair to say we're not totally insane and SAE had a unique trajectory that made it more dependable than other companies had they been in similar straits: doing well on a promising new technology, central government comes in, then comes out, devolved government remains in, then central government comes back in. Add in Gupta taking a slice of the company at a steal, saddling it with a millstone which takes the focus off the core product (tidal), but ends up leaving the company a hedge for when central government turns against tidal, gives a relationship with a big industrialist, and finally the millstone turns out to be very valuable in totally reworked understanding of core company strategy.

I don't think there are many companies this small and with this much turbulence behind them that had, regained, or could (in the Scottish Government case) rely upon so much public backing. This is exactly the way it should be for renewables (and UK Government should never have pulled out in the first place, while a different decision from Welsh Government on Uskmouth and we'd probably be sitting around 15p or so right now anyway, so it hasn't all been plain sailing - but I feel there was always a basic level of strategic support). Public backing for SAE as a tidal company was always large in my thinking at times I might otherwise have bailed.

Rates will go back down and it'll be a rising tide that lifts all boats, retail investors will come back, if slowly. Meanwhile we're still in the basic area of recently being priced to fail so every milestone that takes us away from that helps. On the downside the money that left ESG I don't think is coming back anytime soon. BoE continue to drag their feet on rates and destroy the economy, so we will likely see a fall in power prices but I don't think either is material for us. The ESG collapse hit the likes of Orsted where large funds held billions, not a small tidal producer in Scotland. Similarly, we do not currently sell that much power, so nor is a fall in power prices material; any fall in power prices between now and 2026 will decrease SAE value much less than having a BESS operational would increase it. The Quinbrook BESS is about to show that SAE can deliver a BESS; from drawing board to commissioning.

Nobody should invest more than they can afford to lose but right now depressed SPs are structural while SAE as an individual company has reasons to be cheerful. I would invest more but won't out of basic diversification, not because I think doing so is mad - I invested more when it was far riskier and don't regret doing so. Political support remains in place or has increased, and SAE itself is in a stronger position to justify the support.

Think it's going to be a good 2025; a company on the up in a wider market hopefully ready to turn a corner. Good luck to us.

Great roundup and good to have things sounding so confident. By my reckoning that is the second of the monthly updates that were promised upon Reid's appointment, only about two years after the first! I'll take one a year if they're clearly getting on with important work.

Very heartening to think that, irrespective of Meygen revenues, SAE is potentially now under 24 months from a circa £10m annual revenue that doesn't require land sales or leases.

Nice slip of information too that the batteries have begun to be delivered to the Uskmouth site. With the final payment triggered by only the first 10% of the batteries arriving, that will no doubt happen in the new year - all being well. The first BESS comes online in spring iirc - even with no further payments attached to that event (and payments haven't triggered much SP movement anyway), it'll be interesting to see if such a milestone gains attention. To my mind it is good evidence of a company that has been through some hard times but matured a lot.

Wouldn't mind a Proteus re-merger as a new years wish one day, and rate cuts and improving macroeconomic conditions are essential but inevitable in 2025. All in all I'll take this with no complaints, particularly on where the company was even a year ago.

With all respect to Riomaster and the decisions anyone makes, I enjoy someone saying they are waiting for a favourable price at which to exit and park the money in a high interest account, but what's the right price and why aren't we reaching it? The reason, of course, is precisely the decision making and wish that is being expressed - multiplied by millions of investors small and large taking precisely this course of action over the last two years.

Not to be an interest rates and macroeconomic broken record either, but it is as hard to swim against tides as it has been to get UK governments to offer meaningful support to tidal energy (excuse the pun). ITM trades at 10% of what it did a placement of £400m at a few years ago. The SP at ORIT has been practically cut in half, despite paying a 7% dividend that's well-covered by earnings. The good news for the SP at SAE, I would say, is that Riomaster's move at this moment is probably not actually at the best time (perhaps it was for previous other exits), as the certainty of repeat interest rate cuts next year is now clear. This will improve overall market sentiment in a way likely to favour the ultra small cap that SAE currently represents. It would have to be a hell of an interest rate to outdo a share price that will probably for a while still be able to do most of 100% in a day of genuinely big news.

It is hard to make a guess at correct price in this sort of market. As with others, I bear in mind the research note, somewhat conservatively estimated, around 6p. I seem to remember some price support around the 4p mark for the old SAE, even if we may now have been moved to a totally new understanding of the SP.

I don't feel that this stock is being much traded right now. Multimillion pound CFD wins don't budge it, successful and revenue-generating turbine deployments don't budge it. I don't mind that, and much prefer the sizable re-rate since Going Concern issues were resolved.

Significant and overt GBE investment in tidal has the potential to deliver a significant rerate, at which point the tidal side of the business would be factored into SAE value and SP (for now they aren't much). Concurrent incremental gains to the SP will I think come with BESS milestones, particularly Scottish consent (the difference between 0 and 1 guaranteed BESS at Mey is, in my view, more significant than the one between 2 and 3 or 4 at Usk). At some point, with the professionalism and good form the company has been showing, these concurrent incremental gains will develop a momentum or catalyse as a rerate, all of which will be helped along by a change in interest rate policy and overall market conditions, and hindered by a continuation of current policy and conditions.

Personally I feel there's every reason to believe it will at some point down the line be able to regain the 20p+ mark from Uskmouth conversion days. It's my plan to be around for that.

Interesting to see some speculation on ADVFN about uncovered short positions and likely upwards buying pressure as people seek to close them when the SAE future becomes gradually clearer. As is being pointed out, there are no records of significant short positions in SAE but one of the platforms on which I hold SAE shares offered me the opportunity to loan them out to shorters, with the chance of making (or of course losing) money on the agreement. I obviously declined as I'm overall long and want the renewables and tidal sectors to make money from its success, not make shorters money from its failures, but not everyone will have taken that decision.

There is quite a lot of fearmongering and negativity still attached to this company, and those with short positions will still be hoping for it to materialise. I think reality will go against them and won't lose any sleep if they get burned.

Macroeconomic conditions and the demise of ESG still hang over everything. At some point and probably more gradually than they should, the Bank of England will decide the economy is dying, rates will get down properly, and shares will start to represent an attractive prospect again. Of course we'll be looking at diminished power prices if the economy gets ruined first, which is not great if you're selling energy.

These are all headwinds but I think the SP represents value enough that it can still grow healthily from here. Obviously all long term holders here know what happens when planning decisions and call-ins go against a company, so while I think the BESS projects are safe, people are sensibly waiting for that Scottish consenting decision to get over the line, at which point a substantial derisking will have been achieved. With this in mind I looked recently at Scottish consenting decisions on other BESS projects and they seem to be waving through quite a few big ones, even in the last month or so, so here's hoping it's just a question of waiting and an adjustment will happen on that news going the right way.

I continue to feel good about the company and anyone able to get through these years without selling, and possibly accumulating, has done well and will likely be rewarded as overall market conditions improve. Significant rerates on both Meygen and planning decisions are also perfectly plausible. Although it represents only a small further payment, even completion of the first Usk BESS will help the company as both proof of concept and testament to its ability to get these projects delivered.

An RNS and a small bump tomorrow would of course be welcome ahead of all that. Good luck to the company and investors.

Further to Munin's response to Littlegrandma's point, no time reduction means that much when the array is only 4 turbines and in most cases SAE are only working on one turbine at a time.

It's when you multiply the time saving by twenty turbines that it starts to rack up, and to SAE's credit I think all of these calculations were always made with that future scale in mind. The timeline towards that scale being achieved in 2027 must by now be very clearly set out in Meygen offices. Hopefully a fully operational array being announced on Monday will be the next step on the road map.

Thanks as always for the images from the site.

Who knows what form it will take but I believe GB Energy declared January / H1 2025 for its investments to be made.

With financial close on the SAE-owned BESS project ay Usk also slated for then, and some of the backed-up planning decisions certainly coming through either then or before, it promises to be a strong few months.

Meanwhile we can hope for a successful turbine redeployment and a well-worded RNS. MeyGen running at full capacity for the first time in years, and the future of UK tidal coming together, should warrant some confident comment on where things now stand.

This stuff is interesting. I'd been thinking recently about the obvious complication of picking winners and parking a load of public money into Meygen. Despite it being the obvious beneficiary as the home of tidal energy, and despite it being part publicly owned via Scottish Enterprise, still plenty of scope for Orbital or Nova or others to take issue with that. One thing SAE and Meygen does need though is a financial regime that reduces the costs of turbine insurance and warranty provisions and the like. It might be that rather than a big SAE-linked RNS we just get some small tweak to funding regimes that quietly revolutionises the deliverability of tidal and Meygen. Hard to say for sure, and at least there is enough tidal, renewables and offshore energy media regularly reporting SAE that I suspect relevant changes will gain some coverage that way. All guesswork of course but that's where I have got to so far.

Yes.. I agree, and I was joking. Like I say it is reassuring that they've moved from a company that promoted every possible opportunity into one that is just getting 2 things actually done.

Quite like that all anyone really wanted was to be thrown a bone of 'we have a spare field we could put a few solar panels in', which would have led to at least five articles from AIM-focused websites, the SP would've gone up 80% tomorrow, and that would've been that ... but they just refused to throw the bone!

Very reassuring.