Member Info for Mehmet66

Strangy - scrutiny is good and I don't want to condescend but I don't feel you help your own or the company's situation. Personally I don't want RNS about algae biofuel manufacture at Usk that doesn't happen. Same if a pellet possibility in Czech Rep or Poland opens but then closes. All that just needs to be treated now as a bonus if it comes good. Obvious I wanted Usk conversion to happen and it was going to without the call-in. Legit or not it was a political decision that was hard to predict and without that we'd all be in a different position.

You were worried about debt and now you're worried Quinbrook payment isn't more to cover more than debt. I invested in Orbital with Abundance and system there saw about 50% of investors just roll-over their investment when it matured. Think and hope SAE will get option to do likewise so long as they have funds in place to cover the whole.

You're right that there are issues with relying on Proteus for some services, but also a great upside to not relying on one manufacturer for all your plant. Swings and roundabouts. Also if you want to look at SAE in isolation of rest of the market then do so, but don't also say that others are the ones with selection biases. You have a good weekend and I hope for a day soon where you don't have to fret so much over this share price.

Strangy go look at the share prices of Orsted or Vestas over the same period. Everything is down, and AIM only amplifies that.

Also to remind, before you were annoyed there was nothing happening. Now you're annoyed the anticipated BESS revenue is just for leasing the sites. This is a fair point and let's hope we can grow that knowhow and gain that extra revenue but just to point out that this is still an improvement on your previous concern. I say this in case you haven't noticed you're just as annoyed but at a situation you think has improved.

Also the 4th turbine isn't just waiting about, it has to have a significant retrofit of a key part. I think SAE have probably had a shift of culture to only announce significant and tangible steps, and that's a good thing imo. Also believe you're underestimating the massive amount of work that goes in to a fivefold increase at meygen, which absolutely has to come online for the agreed cfd date in 2027. Also just not sure why you'd be so committed to talking down your investment. It's rough having to wait but that's just the nature of the beast.

Neat work from the picture editor there too

iirc has been past discussion about eligibility of tidal in the capacity market which rewards those generators that can guarantee power to the grid. Obviously tidal can't guarantee power at any time in the way a fossil fuel station can, but it can guarantee when it can guarantee power. It makes sense the grid management recognises and rewards this and can only hope this is a step in that direction.

Think it's no big deal. Was anomalous having the directors' options at 2.2 or whatever it was, double prices it's been at since entire market slumped. Definitely think internal not external move and I'm sure SAE want the share price up but the focus seems to be on delivering projects. Wider staff share package organised for 2024 also looks like a promising mix of staff incentive and long-term planning.

Fair point about communication .. with luck it improves as things stabilise. Healthy scepticism never harmed a company either.

ur other points on sites are relevant, but we all saw years of tidal energy headlines for seabed leases that never came to anything. Orbital recently did one for leasing off Orkney, and Nova got one for Shetland. Not to say they harm, and a bit of hype is nice, but difference between buying a lease and developing a project is clearly considerable. I would rather have one site really shifting, making money and showing the tech works, safe in knowledge that the global market is huge when SAE is ready to go.

Ringfenced budget - Tories (and UK government generally) always know how to be pennywise pound foolish and the cut is disappointing. Labour make for shoddy opposition these days, but they do keep saying not-bad things on green industry. Minister comments someone linked to recently, that the £10m ringfence can increase if the projects are there, was a nice surprise too. Also AR5 results where SAE got most the allocation could well be repeated. Final thing to remember is that as these projects grow in scale and tech gains you start to get more MWs for less pounds. That's how the auctions are structured and why we now get GWs for the same money we got MWs for in offshore wind a decade back. Is still good to see the likes of Marine Energy Council pushing government to increase the budget, but that's the mechanism.

Obviously hit character limit. Was something like:

Feels... like a lot waiting to come good.

Obvious shareholders will be unhappy with this performance, right or wrong I still cut the company some slack. A poor decision from the Welsh government and awful one from Tories on tidal CfDs years back created years of headwinds. Would also like to see the share price in a world where central banks hadn't killed the economy with rate hikes - that has punished nothing harder than risk and innovation, both there in SAE, so this has probably had a bigger effect than any other single thing. Imo with rates as they were or more modestly risen the SP could easily be double this in exact same circumstances. Wishful thinking gets you nowhere but even now I feel Meygen revenue, Scottish govt support and Cfd structure returning are all great foundations for the future. It helps if you're invested in the company for the success of tidal and so happy to be in it for the long haul.

For other points including Graham Reid. I don't think people should project disappointment with SP on company and staff as a whole. I always thought it interesting that (as well as utilities background) Reid managed London Bridge Station redevelopment - a massive infrastructure project with many participants and moving parts. This is highly relevant experience. Tim 'mother of all corrections' Cornelius has a great energy and Australian directness to getting things done but that alone isn't enough either, and has problems of its own. Other tidal companies, particularly Orbital who once had pretty regular social media, are also quiet, so I think is correct that the whole sector is cutting additional spend on comms and anything non-essential. Due to size and importance of Meygen, we are fortunate that anything that benefits tidal benefits us, and there are advocacy groups out there already doing good work. Best thing is if average member of the public starts to also say 'tidal' when they say 'wind and solar'.

Overall SAE under Reid achieved its goals of beginning BESS at Uskmouth, winning a Cfd, and major cost-cutting. The last part is most important to steadying the ship and reducing losses, but company set goals and are meeting them which is good. Most recent comments are that each Meygen turbine brings in £150k/month, so we can't get the 4th back in the water quick enough but this is already material revenue. Clearly isn't money there to pursue JVs right now, but I think developing direct storage experience and expertise are big next steps. If there is a targeted 1gw of BESS at Usk then for now it looks like we will develop and lease sites for the first 500MW, which brings in ready cash but loses long-term profits. In future SAE will hopefully develop knowhow and funding stream to capture this value too.

It is a hard overall climate and SAE has had to ride rough luck but there is big potential and I don't think I question commitment of the company. Fourth turbine and finance on first BESS are hopefully soon, July should reveal what Meygen expansion we win in AR6. Feels

I wouldn't talk nationality but you are the one who comes in talking about 'Mediterraneans' (for a Scottish company!), and now 'shady souks'.

You sound strange and like you could use a holiday.. one where you don't keep working.

German complains other people aren't working hard enough while waiting to make money in stock market

Heard the partnership ended because Nova were concerned SAE could gain valuable info on Nova turbine performance if they had all access to turbine data at Meygen. Sounds totally amicable parting of ways and makes sense.

Aside from the 21% stake in Proteus, there is so much expansion to do at Meygen, especially if SAE begin pioneering a BESS/tidal operation there. I think it will be a while before other sites are added(we've been down that route before), but this transition from manufacturer to project developer was always in the works, always a tension, and Orsted certainly haven't done badly despite never making a turbine. IMO probably the Orsted model that will be followed one day, but that is a way down the line and there are loads of lower-hanging megawatts before that.

Last Abundance update said deployment Q2. Everything sounded under control though so with luck early in the Q. Useful info about future plans for BESS, including SAE developing knowhow to operate one independently at Meygen. All felt quite constructive.

Good news in the RNS today, demonstrating clear path towards financial stability. Good to have more details on Usk BESS expansion plans, and storage at Meygen would be great as tidal predictability is known to pair very well with storage systems.

Nice to have news of future raises on Abundance platform as it is a great source of capital from committed investors, and good to see a continuing working relationship between SAE and Abundance. Also nice to have more news on securitisation of BESS revenues.

Hope now that debenture holders vote it through, but seems to me well worked out and takes us in the right direction. The plan for a future raise on Abundance shows some confidence in this outcome, as a default or rejection of terms would presumably be the end of that relationship.

Not as good an RNS as 100MW bagged in AR5 of course, but solid and takes SAE another step in the right direction.

SAE get price support from government but the consumer purchases the energy at or close to market price. In this case perhaps it carries a small premium for being a pioneering renewable supply, which fits the Smartest Energy brand and mission. The consumer doesn't pay the cost price. A bit like the Cornwall geothermal power due online soon, with its output bought by Ecotricity because their customers want green and it fits the brand to help pioneer new clean energy.

@Blonnyman see your point of view on equal comms but also that a debenture is a very different product to an equity so I don't really begrudge there being a difference. Also feel is a sign of a good relationship with Abundance which is also to be welcomed. A lot of what is shared is info that gets reported elsewhere, tho of course something good about direct communnication anyway.

Had the same question myself about if it meant specific debt to Abundance. No info beyond what I posted so I would optimistically like to guess it is, as said, total debt. Do think the restructuring is probably making headway, and even past news on e.g. there being no outstanding loans to Simec has given hint that they were getting on top of it.

SAE offered its end of year update to Abundance investors. I believe there are a few bonds for sale on the Abundance secondary market for anyone who wants to receive more and future info. Seems I can't copy paste everything into this board but sharing the below section on debt because I feel the mix of anxiety and incomplete info often shared isn't helpful to anyone, especially those fixating on it, and the overall debt issue once BESS funds are secure sounds like it is in-hand and even positive.

Also including section on Meygen and AR5 as it came up a lot recently and SAE (as with Orbital / unlike board members) sound positive.

Also mentioned was further BESS possibilities at Uskmouth and seems like conversation in Eastern Europe around that conversion knowledge. Not sure anything is going to the moon just yet, but imo a good update all the same.

MeyGen Subsequent Phases
SAE welcomes the recent government announcement that tidal stream will participate in Allocation Round 5, applications for which will open in March 2023. MeyGen expects to participate in Allocation Round 5 and win additional tidal capacity which may be added to the 28MW already secured in Allocation Round 4.

Debt Covenant Reporting
Under the terms of your Debentures, we are required to ensure the value of our group's assets is at least 2.8x the value of the total debt we have outstanding - this is called our debt covenant ratio. We are informing our investors that SAE forecasts that it will not meet the minimum Total Debt to Total Assets ratio of 1:2.8 as at the 31st December 2022. The ratio is forecast to be 1:2.2. However, SAE expects that the breach will be remedied during Q1-23 when the previously announced 230MW Battery Energy Storage System reaches financial close. At that point a £6m loan provided by EOS, the battery project developer, will convert to revenue and a further £4m development premium will be realised which will improve the ratio to approximately 1:3.6.

Would have been nice if AR5 had said "£100m ringfenced for tidal" but it didn't. It didn't say anything specific about any other technology type either. If AR4 had been structured the way you are presuming AR5 will be then floating wind would have got everything then too. Reason to believe that some curation of the pot will take place to ensure against that, especially with growing visibility for tidal and appreciation of predictability.

All this considered it seems good that a company (Orbital), who know the policy detail and history better than we do, is actually welcoming the news. IMO still the case that writing to an MP or Ofgem is a better use of energies than this board. It also seems good that the budget per MWH is up from £178 to £202. Again, if the pot structure is what you are suggesting then I don't know why BEIS wouldn't just put out a press release saying it's all going to floating offshore wind, because that's what your interpretation of stated numbers suggests. The £202 figure would seem more like bad news if you are a small tidal stream company that can't envisage getting a project in under that figure.

There's obviously both lots been done (BESS, AR4, consolidating Atlantis) and lots to do. Hard to imagine a worse environment for equities and especially a company with SAE's profile, but until central bank interest rate policies change it's hard to see what one CEO in one company is going to do. The last CEO was good at doing the rounds and drumming-up interest in the share price, but still presided over the greatest fall in value, not to say that it's all his fault either. Have to hope that selling electricity, and gaining government-backed contracts for it, are as solid an income stream as you get in this time, and at some point that will begin to show in the SP.

All that said I'll keep my complete and utter rubbish opinions to myself from now. Happy new year!

Saw this recent tweet from Orbital, welcoming news on the AR5 structure. This seemed like the common-sense view anyway, but adding here to reassure anyone who doesn't run a tidal energy company but worried that AR5 was bad news not good news.

Also definitely see it as good news to have a CEO running a company and not a Twitter account.

https://twitter.com/Orbitalmarine/status/1603025867881746434?s=20&t=HGiCTOP-1SPkz3tCYNnyNA

I think on the contrary it would be strange (but fantastic!) news for an MoU discussing 80GW of power, with many gigawatts already being generated, and gigawatts of interconnectors, between more than half a dozen countries, to have mentioned a technology that for now only has a few megawatts generating, even with the future potential.

I hope you write to your MP and others about tidal as much as you do us lot! And maybe take a break from waiting on news sometimes, it's not always helpful (or good for you!).

Nice one those picking up the phone.

Small silver lining is I would interpret not disclosing holding to not influence quotes from other turbine manufacturers imo suggests a bigger not smaller holding. Presume thinking is that a closer relation of Proteus and SAE would be less welcome at rivals, so if you wanted to dispel that concern and stake is small then you'd just announce. Small consolation there tho, only a logical deduction, and awful amounts or guesswork in all this.

Some clarity for project and company was needed. Big issue is if this now gets the company safe or if a lot of upside has been lost in return for only more limbo. Meygen can be a big success and needs pushing over the line, so question is if this gets us there.

Re target-setting, relevant context is offshore wind, which in 2010 had a £100/MWH target for 2020 and in the 2020 CfD was hitting sub-£50/MWH. Totally feasible for tidal also and good to see these sort of figures coming out now from OREC. Much better than the previous 'cheaper than nuclear' tag that kept getting used across the sector.