Member Info for Mehmet66

The current geopolitics carries a risk for anything that is incomplete and a premium for anything that is complete, especially if it supports energy independence like a BESS. The US-Israeli war on Iran is helping US oil companies because to them Gulf oil is a competitor, but even these people have limits on the amount of damage to the world economy they can get away with. Fossil fuel companies have bought-up the political right and in the UK Farage & Co have been paid to take on US hostility to the net zero agenda, even though advantages of electrification and domestic renewables are clearer than ever. The Conservatives, Labour and the media moving further to the right isn't helping. A flabby, slow-moving Labour government is making matters worse.

The structural reasons for BESS are now overwhelming, and the Ampeak grid connections and planning status works in our favour. I suspect that most everything for AW1 has been purchased at existing prices and that is good. Hormuz also isn't relevant to imports (the batteries) needed for its construction. Because most current European politicians are totally corrupt they probably won't do much to stop US and Israelis committing more attacks, and will instead leave it to central banks to control the inflation using interest rate hikes. This is obviously bad for the economy, which has not yet recovered from the interest rate hikes of their Ukraine war. The fact that the policy of generally decreasing interest rates has now done a U-turn into generally increasing interest rates shows that people and business are mostly expected to live with the unnecessary chaos.

I think everything in the UK is now so set-up for renewables and BESS that a pretty mature proposal like AW2 or even MeyBess will still be ok, but deals agreed yesterday have an advantage over deals agreed today or tomorrow. Aside from Meygen and whatever happens with GBE, for the company SP the main event and rerate will remain the difference between having an operational AW1 BESS or a BESS project at an advanced stage of development. I don't think there is any real reason to believe things aren't on track at Usk but that will be the news to watch for.

Isn't there a potential expansion of storage capacity at the (I think) Quinbrook site that would also net another payment? Remembering the structure of that deal it was a tenth of batteries in-situ that prompted the final payment - perhaps that would be the sort of milestone we can expect news at. I feel we will likely hear something before that anyway. A more formalised power partnership on the old Liberty Steel data centre conversion should also prompt some kind of rerate. Some kind of Cardiff regional development funding could also I think come in to bridge if there is a small gap before first BESS revenues. I'm not concerned by the absence of news while we know construction is underway, with any luck it is just a sign of steady, unspectacular progress.

Current SP movements I put down to the wider market uncertainty as the US/Israelis try to smooth the fallout from attacks on Iran using only social media posts from Trump. That worked for a time but some people are obviously getting jittery.

Great news. A multimillion pound vote of confidence from an energy investor that clearly wants AMP in their portfolio.

Alongside the restructuring of the Meygen debt, the SIMEC holding was also one of the legacy issues the company was always likely to have to figure out at some point. This marks another very healthy step forward.

Thanks Marshall.. yes, that's the one and what I'd seen reported. I couldn't find the AR7a results (and they were delayed, yesterday, I believe).

Ultimately a shame for those of us more interested in the tidal side but doesn't change what I'd written earlier, or just the need for UK Government and GBE to pull its finger out. If they gave half as much support to renewables as they do gangs of the likes of Mandelson we wouldn't still be twiddling our thumbs on all this.

Orbital only grabbing 2MW despite its advantages of scale from past rounds also speaks to a similar trajectory. I suppose the one Scottish company to do ok in all this is Nova but that being because its main future turbine deployment is in Wales.

It seems a little confused. Some reporting that 20MW of tidal has been allocated, but also official statement that government missed its deadline for non-offshore wind results, including tidal. This is what Government website documents also suggest.

The uncorroborated reporting suggests over 15MW of that 20MW is in Wales, then only 2.5MW for Orbital in Scotland. Would be consistent with Welsh Government investment in the sector to help get costs down. Inyanga is the big winner in the reported results, with 10MW won, yet nothing is reported on the Inyanga website, which seems odd.

There is probably more and clearer news to come. In political terms it is good that Miliband's statement clearly references wind, solar and tidal in the build out, which I think is the first time tidal has been spoken of this prominently by a minister. It would be disappointing to see MeyGen receive nothing, but also understandable given that it has 50MW of buildout already with CFDs and GB Energy decisions still ridiculously backed-up. Considering MeyGen has far more advantages of scale already in place and in this pipeline, it would seem unlikely to me that other test-scale projects can outbid it if it is competing.

Suspect there is more news still to come.

I am sure I speak for everyone here when I say that, as an original member of the band, I also wish that!

You should round back up to a round million while it's still under 5, but you know your book.

Nice to see it being linked fully to MeyGen too. Although can't imagine the NIMBYs who were fighting it will love seeing these nice views of the fields that are going to get containers planted on them.

Thanks anyway Tidal Lover... are you rebuilding your position here?

Revenues from AW1 in a year, annual report before then indicating a strengthened position, Quinbrook expansion probably signed, RNS milestones on the AW1 build will represent both derisking and new publicity for the project. Plus the opportunity for gains upon any MeyGen investment from GB Energy, data centre collaboration at Usk, or BESS projects announced abroad. Possibly another tidal CFD too. Also first revenues on AW1 will, if everything hits the timeline, almost be coinciding with financial close on MeyBess.

Seems like a growing likelihood of momentum here now (and the stock has gained +50% in each of the last two years). Think that 0.8 value given to tidal is low and probably represents the current 6MW setup as the extent of it, any real signs that it can get towards a 60MW tidal power station with government revenue support will see it factored back in properly. Looking good really.

Nice summary Munin, and certainly a strong and nicely-worded RNS.

In other news I see Orbital Marine just got a new £7m equity investment. Good to see the sector strengthening and what seems like a generally growing confidence in its future.

No problem Munin, like you say a nice rare surprise to get probably the most important bit of info by reading through to the end of the annexes! Thanks for your summary too, which I agree with. I also agree we shouldn't really have to be sleuthing like this. We'll see if the forthcoming works and any RNS that follows can maybe offer a clearer picture.

I do think (even if a CFD ringfence would be nice) that the political alignment for tidal is there or coming, and that however bad consecutive UK governments, the idea that we need more of everything is still the basic understanding on renewables - otherwise there wouldn't really be any incentive to development wave energy or geothermal either. It would be a nightmare scenario for every other renewable sector if governments around the world just decided that batteries, solar and wind was the way forward, and stopped innovating, but that doesn't seem like it's happening. It's always the case that new technologies can offer bigger gains and new attributes like predictability in the case of tidal. Meanwhile it's good that the domestic supply chain, and devolution government support, will go on creating political movement for tidal as the technology develops and costs come down.

Overall I'm still of the view that one working AR3000 down there will be a big and exciting step forward for Meygen, and the turbine model becoming viable should lead to a leap forward in tidal, including probably in the £/MW the company can bid at in future auction rounds.

Pretty logical Pask, only thing being that I don't think GBE will want to de-emphasise its tidal spending (but would probably be happy to have a BESS hedge on a (much-trumpeted) tidal investment ).

For tidal to be mentioned first in the list of ventures, ahead of CCUS, is imo positive. CCUS does have more serious lobbying money behind it, and much less to show for its trials than tidal, but I don't think GBE can invest in that while not investing in a working, predictable energy source with a well-researched cost reduction curve and domestic supply chain.

Ampeak are happy to now let other companies sit on the boards of tidal advocacy groups, and those other companies are aware Meygen will probably be first to benefit from any new policy, but that those benefits will ultimately be shared across the industry (improved financial services, turbine insurance, economies of scale, investment in infrastructure etc).

GBE is generally behind on its rollout, so as frustrating as that is, I'm not worried. Given the declared Ampeak input on the Newport part of the government data centre plan, I see this as another solid bit of news that will probably drop at some point. Bigger question really is whether the backing will be tokenistic or similar magnitude to that one recently given to Pentland Offshore Floating Wind.

No problem TRBob.

Mister_Tidal: a viable AR3000 will change everything in tidal, so proof of the turbine somewhere is bound to come first.

OT, just search the document for Scottish Enterprise mentions. It's not in the main report but in Annex 2, introduction to the FIC AR3000:

"To this end, MeyGen seeks to deploy a single AR3000 turbine at the MeyGen site to

gather techno-economic data and test environmental monitoring technology, in collaboration with Scottish

Enterprise (SE) under a research and development grant. The AR3000 First In Class (FIC) turbine will be

provided by Proteus Marine Renewables (PMR)."

Also realised the budget announcement for the tidal CFD ring-fence is due December 8. Marine Energy Council requesting £40m, up from the current £15m, so it could be an interesting few weeks of Meygen news. I think the AR7 schedule had slipped but more CFD news from that is due early in the new year.

I skim read the EIA screening report and it seems encouraging. I'll take the gains, rerates and milestones of the BESS but tidal remains the most interesting side of the business for me, possibly also the biggest potential upside now that it's almost totally unreflected in the SP.

Main points:

Obviously good to have any firm steps on an AR3000 being manufactured. The filing of the report (and Scottish Government approval) shows Meygen quietly ticking away in the background. I have long felt the ring-fenced Meygen revenue is to ensure this is paid for, in return for Scottish Enterprise seeing Meygen debt as part of a long-term investment.

Biggest point for me, buried in an appendix, is Scottish Enterprise seem to be providing a development grant to finance the AR3000. This, as well as recent Meygen visits by MSPs, is clear sign of continued political and financial backing. Coupled with likelihood of GBE investment, things are shaping-up.

Meygen won't be fulfilling its CFD allocation before 2029, but this is noted as part of the wider UK problem of grid connection issues. It may be the case that the grid connection delay proves a non-issue (or helpful) for tidal as it overlaps with the technology maturing.

The consented nacelle length for the AR3000 is within same parameters as the AR1500 (so not necessarily the exact same, but not radically larger). This suggests doubling of power output and large increase in rotor diameter is being achieved without radical design overhaul.

The AR3000 will go in on a monopile and not using concrete ballast. This will simplify installation and is part of the LCOE coming down.

Still a decision to be made on if a subsea hub will go in with the AR3000. Permission has been granted but the company is yet to decide. If an SSH eventually goes in this will be a strong sign that Ampeak plans to attach more turbines to it.

Much of the report is on impact of Meygen on marine life. Fortunately it seems like there's no real impact, but from this you can also read other things: reduced cabling due to a SSH reduces electromagnetic effects of the array on marine life but also cabling costs and so LCOE. Same obviously for getting the same power from two-thirds the number of turbines; good for seals, good for LCOE.

Was good to see a significantly reduced clearance between rotor and seabed being signed-off. Apparently the original 4metres clearance (now 2m for AR3000) was not for wildlife but to prevent material fatigue on the blades, which has proven a non-issue. All this adds to the view of Meygen as a highly successful pilot project in a sector that was messed around by UK Government.

Will be interesting to see if the SP reacts to the upcoming turbine works. I suspect not but with ongoing pressure for a tidal-specific CFD pot, GBE, continued Scottish support, and Canada and France now spending properly on tidal, things look good. Overall, just one AR3000 going in will be a great step for Meygen.

Certainly the vessel hire is the guts of £100k/ or more day, and I seem to recall that the last visit was around 4 days with more complex manoeuvres, perhaps around cabling. Will be interesting to see how many turbines are left in and turning at the end of the operation. Anyone keen to find a more precise number for vessel hire could perhaps check the financial statements for years without any re/deployment of turbines, and the opex costs at Meygen relative to those in which re/deployments took place. Still, always good to see work happening at Meygen.

As for upgrading an AR1500 to AR3000 by just fitting new and larger rotors. I'd like that but with it being a doubling of forces through the components in the nacelle I'd expect more engineering is required. Obviously the plan is also to move from the current concrete ballast fixings on the turbines to monopiles, so will be interesting to see if that happens just for a single turbine or not. Again, although the concrete ballast was over-engineered due to fear of turbine failure at Meygen Phase1, would seem like the doubling of forces through the turbine would require more in terms of foundations.

All in all I think both things are good news. Even one AR3000 turning at Meygen would be real progress, and all activity at the site is a welcome indication that the key stakeholders remain invested.

That FT article was focussed on tidal barrage not tidal stream. To be fair tidal barrage could still come good if they get more of the ultra-long CFD structure in place. Tidal stream has a much better business case because not only do turbines not require major civil engineering, you can also pack them up and export them to places like an Indonesian archipelago or remote Newfoundland where power costs are high and so tidal energy is immediately more competitively priced.

That recent Scottish update about a single 3MW turbine at Meygen I found promising. The AR3000 does have a much larger swept area so it's good that authorities are content there is no further permitting requirement. The prospect of a single AR3000 being manufactured and deployed would seem like a very promising consolation right now, given the wider delay to Phase2.

Overall there is every reason for impatience and frustration but still think between Scottish Government, GBE, Westminster and NWF there is a political commitment to tidal that will eventually be followed by investment. Orbital recently picked up a big power purchase agreement in Canada, and France is increasing funding, so it is a case of where and when, more than if, tidal gets the backing to bring it to market. Bear in mind too that there about 5 companies across Scotland and Wales, all now with CFDs and supply chains in place, that UK Government and GBE will be condemning to uncertainty if they decide to pull funding on the sector for the second time in a decade.

Fair to say GBE spending timeline is behind schedule, although the comment that spending would begin in October was made only once and wasn't really a hard deadline. Slowness of visible GBE investments (aside from some community energy projects) has been defended reasonably enough on the basis that GBE is an effort to build a serious platform for the industry. The announcement will obviously just drop at some point.

Recent news did report that a local task force has been established at Aberdeen HQ to ensure delivery for GBE in North East Scotland - obviously good for Mey and Nigg. Everything put out by either GBE or Miliband repeats the emphasis on nascent technologies and UK supply chain. We know that tidal stream is nascent and we know it has over 80% UK supply chain. The company line "Think tidal, think Meygen" might not be the catchiest but it is certainly hard to argue. Impossible to overstate how bad and incompetent this Labour government, and the raid by nuclear on GBE spending is shocking, but even with that I can't see how the emphasis on "nascent" and "domestic supply chains" doesn't eventually give something to tidal, and I can't see how that could happen without something at Meygen. All the regular names of NWF and Crown Estate also being repeatedly mentioned, latter of which we also know is especially integral and seems genuinely keen to support tidal.

I can imagine the more cautious money is holding off until confirmation, but the political signs are certainly strong. Meanwhile it's nice to have the BESS side of things going well to firm up the price before hopefully we get back on track as a successful tidal business.

Wouldn't normally respond to this kind of question but think it's fair to say that in main the best time to buy this share was yesterday and failing that, today.

GB Energy spending was due to begin in October, which has the overnight potential to see an entire side of the business priced-in having currently been priced-out. Tidal stream does seem to keep getting mentioned positively and distinct from wider scepticism about tidal more generally.

We know there are now no planning objections to MeyBess, so presume an approval from ECU. This is also due potentially anytime, and which would take Ampeak from being a one-site BESS company to its intended two sites. I suspect the less risk-averse money has already bet on this, but more cautious investors will follow that green light.

The pattern of the last two years is big increases on big news, then sold at high levels, but reverting to a steadily rising baseline price that lifts each time with these derisking milestones.

The thing I'm currently quite curious about is the investor day next week. The company would only host such a thing if confident that there is an underlying business case that - seen up close - makes a very compelling case for itself. The sort of money that takes a trip to South Wales to walk around fields that could host batteries in container units is not trader money but real investors who will stick around with useful sums. We also know that the SP reacts strongly to any volume at all being traded, so if the event proves to be worthwhile at all then it should have some sort of upwards effect. That effect would likely be amplified if the ECU decision for MeyBESS is in by then, allowing the company to present an even stronger business case.

Not sure anything (apart from GB Energy investment) would break the 5p recent high, but a steady rise up in that direction seems probable.

Thanks Munin - welcome thoughts and review on the tidal side of things, as always.

I think there is now perhaps a bit of a "you first" with Proteus/Raz Blanchard and French support for an AR3000 development.

Recall also the previous statement from the company, summarising its gratitude but also the need of continued support from Scottish Enterprise. I do think that support is likely to be forthcoming in Scotland, but stating it openly clarifies where things are.

Nonetheless the tidal side of things seems to have been almost entirely factored-out of the SP, meaning a significant change in circumstances holds more potential upside than downside. It is such a small amount of real investment, both political and capital, from UK Government/GBE that there isn't really much point making any serious decisions until that becomes a known quantity.

It's clear there are many other opportunities at Uskmouth, first off the capacity expansions we already know about. Most of the RNS from the company now mention the huge amount of land at the site, which I interpret mostly as a signal to other partners and potential partners. The land and energy backup of BESS make it an obvious possibility for data centres and capturing that added value from energy sales. Wasn't there also once a post on social media of one of the management team with someone from a solar company? Again, co-location of storage and solar is, given the land available, a possibility. There basically isn't need to rule anything out - if it requires energy and land, Uskmouth is probably a good option.

Years ago I spoke to someone in tidal who felt that Reid's background in utilities was not what the company needed, thinking it unsuited to a fast-paced, emerging sector. Ultimately I think the opposite has proven true, especially for Uskmouth, where experience in piecing together large energy sites, step by step, is exactly what has been required. If UK Government doesn't totally fail to do the bare minimum for tidal, I think the same experience will prove very valuable at MeyGen.

The share price will increase as all of these projects are derisked and progressed, sometimes steadily and sometimes with spikes. The equities market (where renewables trusts that pay steady dividends are also down 50% on 2021) will recover and bring serious investors back. Institutions are desperate to invest in storage. Any entirely new project showing serious prospects obviously has the ability to prompt a positive SP re-rate. The share price is up more than 100% in the last 18 months, with the company likely to start generating significant revenues from AW1 inside the next 12 months, and likely repeat of similar growth repeating with these milestones. Plenty of reasons to be positive. At some point SP behaviour will change due to a different kind of investor arriving, and meanwhile traders help keep a stock liquid and talked-about, so do provide a small service in their own way, even if they can be annoying. Hard to overstate how significant that AW1 financial close was, especially at a time when investors in other perfectly good companies are reading news of the latest delay to financial close and FIDs due to extreme difficulties of market conditions. Hopefully GB Energy and UK Government don't mess things up this autumn. No reason not to have the tidal side of the business showing just as much promise.

I share the sentiment that trader frenzy is nothing to worry about in light of recent positive news. A smaller spike falling back to mid 2.5p on AW1 planning news is almost evidence of the SP stabilising, and should at some point continue to reflect what has now been a steady 18months of good news. I expect that - as and when the MeyBESS planning permission comes through - we will see similar trading behaviour. It is also good to note that these spikes have seen new investors come in at prices as high as 5p. At some point money will stick around.

Imminent announcement of GB Energy spending, and the chance to consolidate MeyGen, also has potential to be equally or more transformative, but I believe Ampeak is now - sensibly enough - operating on a logic that UK Government can't be fully trusted not to waste its strength and industrial leadership in tidal. A sad state of affairs but we'll know more soon. I did notice recently there has been a small uplift to the price per MW for tidal energy that the company was awarded in previous CFDs, which all helps.

The share price peak of recent months, followed by the retrace, does represent an equities market that is depressed. My view is that many shareholders sitting on big historic losses nonetheless kept a little faith that things could come better, and then got out fast with an amount double what it was a day prior. LTHs with lower entry prices and who can afford to keep holding are in a good position. The Ampeak situation, particularly financial close, is even better considering the amount of bad news for renewables, and particularly financing, currently seen across the sector. The fact AW1 should be operational and with revenues inside 12 months is very positive, meaning the company ceases to be a classic AIM stock based on something years down the line. While the MeyBESS site will be transformative, we are fortunate to have the Uskmouth rail link, and the ease of delivering aggregate and batteries by rail is evident in its much faster development timeline compared to MeyBESS. Given the appetite now being seen to acquire or invest in storage, particularly battery storage, and given the size of the potential Ampeak portfolio, an institutional investment at some point, of the sort just made by National Wealth Fund, seems a real probability. Imminent receipt of the rest of the Cardiff loan following AW2 planning is also helpful.

The price of a share is determined not just by value of a company but by funds available to buy it. Funds have been sucked out of the sector by the collapse of ESG and high interest rates, the latter of which have to unwind as economic growth is now so flat. Replacement of ESG funds is less straightforward, but capital is out there, and is going to have to look harder for a return as rates come down. Storage is so essential to even existing renewable capacity that it remains the bright spot on the horizon. The decisions on tidal due soon could make for even better prospe