Member Info for Mehmet66

Correct about variation in tidal strength creating variation in MW output. Technical point but I'm pretty certain that a tidal turbine is always turning even if only a little, this iirc is actually one reason the technology is so well suited to battery storage because it means there is always a source of charge which improves battery performance.

I don't know why but despite a bit of friendliness now growing with neighbours at Orbital, I have a feeling that Andritz or Proteus turbines would be preferred model for a while. If I'm not mistaken the Hydrowing design is lots of smaller (Tocardo) turbines affixed to a submerged frame. The Andritz and Proteus models represent design convergence with the Nova design but at a much larger scale, with the Nova model I think being only rated for 200KW. Orbital being so close must present logistical advantages, but it's such a radically different design I feel there must be some drawbacks to project management. Who knows. On some level of course it is a nascent industry with small output so far, while SAE have a big CFD overall to fulfil - it may simply be the case that it is helpful or even necessary to draw on the manufacturing capacity of different firms.

Anyway happy with this latest win today, even if clearly some holders were hoping for more from the SP in response. Not surprised that down here in 2024 a 59MW at guaranteed price deliverable in 2029 isn't really priced that differently to 50MW at guaranteed price deliverable in 2028. We wait now on GB Energy and planning announcements which I always thought hold much more potential to move the SP.

Basically any CFD win is very good money, especially when you add a BESS storage optimisation option too. The current working out is about £100k/month per turbine (stated casually by both SAE and correlates with Munin's (another regular we recently forgot to mention!!) posting of figures) which is obviously healthy. After 50MW brought in with the previous two ARs, increasing that amount by 20% seems good to me.. it presumably also tops-up the profitability of the current setup in a way that should also help with financial close (or subsequent profitability) of earlier phases, which was always truly the next and most important big step . As someone else has noted, the cost of tidal per MWH coming down is also a good thing and exactly what the sector needs. That anyone would see any of this as anything but good news is beyond me, and the share price will respond as and when it's ready.

Haven't looked long at this and won't but I think for 1. Hydrowing are really doing well at catching up in tidal (they have their own install boat which must help enormously on costs), and 2. additional to large wins in the last two auction rounds it is good that we brought-in a further 9MW - the largest 'win' in the round (alongside 10MW at Hydrowing). To be honest I'd be more worried if I were Orbital and not expanding at all, but perhaps they're saving themselves for AR7 ... that would also make sense.

Overall looks like the growth in floating offshore is a big trend to watch and most of all we just need to bring home the circa 50MW of capacity we secured in the last two auction rounds. This additional 9MW will help nicely to enhance the growing scale and profitability of Meygen. Overall the planning permission on the Mey BESS represents a bigger imminent step-change for future profitability (and also the SP) than anything this CFD could have delivered.

Well done everyone... definitely no need in my view to be fuming.

Just to say that even with his questionable past comments about souks and just now calling us vermin (lol!) I too am fond of Deutscher as part of the gang. I intended the joke about CFDs to be friendly. Maybe we can just put it down to German humour. I would also add Pask? and Keltick ? to the old gang who will also be lost in the tide of ramping that is coming for us, before finally the SAE board dies because it's just a well-established company and the SP only ever moves a couple of % at a time.

Anyway.. for the more important news of the CFD. I am cautiously optimistic that we will see an uplift but I think it is as-likely to come from (or alongside) imminent planning progress due at both Mey and Usk BESS. I also double checked and we have two (I had thought only 1) outstanding payments for phase 1 at Usk BESS, totalling just under £3m, and I feel these milestones will have a small but good effect if only because they will be more cash-at-bank. I don't think the CFD news will see us go to the moon just yet but I am interested to see if the expanded pot and our phases already in the works will make for a substantively different situation and MW win. It isn't impossible. Taking a degree of solidity from news that the initial CFD win required OFGEM to see demonstrable milestones being hit as signs of progress, so we can only assume that is happening. The financial close (apparently on-track) H1 2025 is I think going to be the big one, but the nature of GB Energy tidal support also has, imo, some potential to make a big difference. Taken together, and along with almost certain rate cuts, as we all know and seem to feel, good things are coming up.

For near term I think and would be happy to see the share comfortably clear and stay above 3p. That would already be a 25% gain on the current price and I'm happy to go slowly to the moon. Given previous price support around 5p it may go well above 3p quite fast, but I'm more interested in the steady growth than these ups and downs.

Have a good weekend everyone and fingers crossed for good news next week.

i also remember @deutscher making what were (for a scottish company) very bizarre but quite ****** remarks about the management hanging out in a souk and not doing any work. nobody cried you might be islamophobic then just like nobody made any comment about you being german now. your english is good and seems to be much better than your understanding of sae or uk renewables policy. good luck with your investments.

I like how much Deutscher has complained about this company without even knowing what a CFD is! 😂

Another date for the calendar is I think September 18 when the Fed almost certainly announces a rate cut - probably too late to save the economy from the double shock of the US war in Ukraine and the rate hikes, but should have an upwards ripple through all global equities.

Good point Lutra - yes I suppose the geothermal potential rises considerably when we are talking about it as a source of heat and not only as a power source, which I think requires more specific rock types and higher temperatures. I feel there is an advanced project or plan of this nature with old mines somewhere around the Pennines.

That said and I might be wrong but so far I saw GB Energy talked about mostly in terms of electricity generation, and I think the polling was for renewable sources of electricity, for which I don't believe the UK has for geothermal anything like the much-touted 10GW of potential tidal. Would still be good to see more of it of course, both in heat and power.

The news comes when it comes @Strangy!

But to repeat the timeline coming up this should with luck mean:

CFD announcement inside the next 2 weeks

Turbine hopefully back in at MeyGen inside the next 6 weeks

Planning permission at Mey BESS inside the next 4? weeks

Scoping response at USK BESS (phase 3?) inside the next 4? weeks.

Second reading for the Bill in Parliament and GB Energy moving forward inside the next 3 weeks.

To give a little more detail on the scoping decision and your question. A scoping decision is prior to a planning application to find out about any likely hurdles. You do have your thinking a little upside down in in that SAE don't land a project and then begin developing it. SAE begin developing a project and then sell it. In the earlier stages of fixing Uskmouth for BESS the company had to sell/lease pretty much everything in the project, including land, because it was desperate. The recent news of buying back the operating rights of an USK BESS reflects decreasing urgency, the ability to retain and profit from operating projects, and a stronger position from which to retain ownership, or larger proportions of ownership, in future projects.

On the subject of the scoping decision; the chances are high that there are no problems and we proceed to a planning application. It is a project that fits the Welsh climate and renewable energy agendas, and we know because Usk is a brownfield site there is a presumption towards development. SAE are now familiar with this process and it should be a rinse and repeat of previous BESS applications at Usk, with the scoping decision the first stage.

Think of it if you like as the moon rocket having another fuel pod fitted ahead of take-off.

Interesting results. Level of public awareness would in the case of tidal be the more useful thing to have a measure of - I expect it is growing. I also expect that tidal stream benefits from large, prominent tidal barrage projects like on the Severn, as a result of an assumption they are one and the same technology. People generally do tend to be pro-renewables when asked, but it is good for awareness that tidal is being included in questions among mature technologies.

One interesting inconsistency is geothermal energy being included in the polling of "other notable" sources, but not tidal, despite tidal having more deployment in the UK. That changes when the Cornish geothermal plant comes online later this year or next, but in general I think tidal has more UK potential than geothermal, so doesn't quite add up.

Good to see the public haven't been swayed by the nuclear lobby. All but the most idiotic could see from the cost and delays to the Hinkley plant (not to mention uranium supply and disposal), that it's a disastrous technology type. Shame the lobby is so powerful and the media and politicians so crooked, stupid, or both.

Thanks as always on posting these figures, Munin.

Think this is quite big - I assumed we sadly just had a turbine out of action and we would stay at-best at 3 turbines, with the uprated one going back in and the out-of-commission one coming out: understandable but disappointing.

Being back at three operating turbines with the fourth due for redeployment within the next month and a half gives a realistic chance of potentially soon having a full array of four operating turbines after all. Because of the cost of vessel hire, we know for a certainty that if there is any maintenance at all needed in the foreseeable future on any of the turbines currently down there then it will be coming out. This in turn means it is probably safe to deduce that if no turbine does come out then we should equally have a full array operational for the foreseeable future. I guess we find out soon.

You're still doing that Reddit forum @Mister_Tidal?

That is fine work indeed! If the share price ever goes Gamestop style and we pass the £10 mark then you'll have to send an address and I'll transfer you an ETH or two!

Firstly I'd say don't be impatient and maybe even tune-out. The SP is doing very well (bear in mind wider market uncertainty right now) and has already undergone a substantial re-rate very recently. Secondly you can always wait for it to go lower for a bigger bargain that might not come, or you can - I think probably safely - assume that the SP will go higher and anything bought in the 2s (or probably 3s and maybe even 4s) will before long seem like a very good price - just as it would be a fantastic price to people who invested in 2017.

Overall I would bear in mind that this is still an AIM-listed retail stock and probably very attractive to day traders. You can trade a 10%+ fluctuation in a day and - now that the long-term security of SAE seems secure - this even limits your downside and reduces the uncertainty of such trades.

I would suspect - and think recent activity evinces this - that there is still a good amount of 'selling the news' going on. Materially good developments occur, price tests and breaks 3pm and people who watch and do this regularly take some profit as new money comes in. I suspect that at some point some of that profit is reinvested to help juice a little bit of movement, which again doesn't take too much when an SP is low and volume traded is limited.

I say all this as a committed long term holder in SAE. Whatever day-trading games happen at these prices is immaterial to the price SAE should be reaching, and for now it's just all part of the market as the company starts to get noticed again. Once that happens and beyond a certain point momentum should build more steadily.

Good luck to you but remember as always the risks of any investing.

Remains my opinion that Orbital have provided great advertising for UK tidal industry as a whole, helped by such an iconic design and being very professional in marketing it.

Noticing too that SAE have started to promote them a little more since becoming neighbours at Nigg. Makes me think that at some point there will just be an advantage to having more than one well-capitalised turbine supplier, especially such a local one, and SAE will perhaps be turbine-agnostic and Meygen will have different models.

On the other hand - SAE previously did sound a lot like they had made the decision that bottom-rooted and on monopiles was the way to go. As I understand it, Orbital harness greater power because tides are stronger closer to the surface, but the model of not being seabed-fixed puts a lot of strain on four points of the design, especially where chains meets the nacelle and the anchors. The O2 was apparently down for a while lately awaiting maintenance on some of this.

There is also the valid argument that the O2 is not the world's most powerful turbine, but two 1MW turbines attached to the same hull - there again and like I say, Orbital have proven very good at marketing.

Nonetheless it is good to see more and positive media, and I'm confident all this will be overcome. Funny watching the presenter look at a single turbine and then point out that it generates less power than the country's largest wind farm!

NAV in the current market is far from a bible. In ORIT and TRIG the UK sees its biggest renewables trusts trading at about a 30% discount to NAV. This despite huge generation and having healthy dividends covered. All a product really of interest rate hikes of the last few years and the economic harm there, not to mention Tories trashing the idea of the UK as safe place to do business, and Labour then doing a big U-turn on initial green energy spending commitments.

Obviously a 30% discount on a 6p NAV at SAE still gives 4p, but these aren't hard and fast rules. I think the main thing is that the 6p is a conservative estimate and there is potential upside to come, with more of that upside derisked as each positive milestone is crossed. My feeling in general is that a combination of growing awareness of the company (or old followers aware of changing fortuers), plus changing sentiment around equities, especially as rates fall, will be a tailwind for a company that is obviously now undervalued. Of course it is hard to put a timeline to this sort of thing.

A final thing to consider is that the ESG investment trend of recent years had the wind pulled out of its sails; big oil unsurprisingly jumped off the bandwagon, and big finance at BlackRock et al (who had talked it up and invested heavily) I think followed, giving in to the right-wing pressure that hated ESG on principle and waged a successful propaganda war against it. I think SAE value is so far below what it could be that this is more relevant to the big players in the sector, but still represents a reality that there is less money being thrown around than in 2021.

Don't know about 3p Monday but certainly great news to now be bringing on our own BESS.

Also that now looks like a very busy and significant H1/Q1 2025, with financial close anticipated both for the BESS and the first expansion at Meygen.

I agree that going into a CFD win in the current position rather than the previous will also be interesting to see and presumably positive. The CFDs and the share price in general I view a little like pressing down on a coiled spring; not necessarily immediate movement but more energy stored up for release when the project truly becomes tangible. That as we know, really, is financial close. Until then with the BESS in the business valued on its own at 6p good things should happen of their own accord.

I almost quite like that we're a share that follows the wider market again, not just a hobby for eccentrics!

I think if the price can do 150% in a month and stay there that counts as good news!

Very nice to hear people confident. I also think it warranted and is good for the company too. I started contributing here originally because there was a mixture of bad news and uncertainty, and I feel having some sort of pool of committed investors sharing reliable news and even doubts (not just speculating on every peak) was and is good for the company.

Tidal is interesting in that some (Scotland, France, Indonesia, Canada) have obvious tidal resource to exploit, while I've seen Austria noted a few times as one of those quite involved in the sector despite having no tide of its own, but a strong manufacturing base. France has strong manufacturing and tidal potential, UK not-great manufacturing but great tidal potential. It is an interesting mix of countries.

I also quite like the idea that Mister Tidal and Tidal Lover are actually an old married couple - often bickering but lately with things seeming quite happy.

It is a good question and I'd love to (and to an extent do) see it as a valuable 10%. I think first though we need to see if/how Proteus can pull off the 3MW turbine and what the leasing or warranty options will look like. I would also be very happy to see them develop the Normandy site (which I think they owe SAE £750k on if certain milestones are crossed).

I have a great affection and hope for the idea of tidal and it does seem like it can really work. In the circumstances that it's proven, I'd happily take a reverse merger back together with Proteus, although I suspect that is a bit of a pipe dream.

For the time being and in terms of valuation, however, I don't factor-in the Proteus holding at all. I hope the future changes that and if it doesn't (or if SAE relinquish it in lieu of services) then I'll remain content that there are a number of other secure avenues to profit now opening.

We don't get a "pop" moment of the ITM variety because unlike the skys-the-limit hydrogen case of an electrolyser on every street (or for Tesla as an EV in every garage), it is very hard to imagine what that might look like for tidal energy or battery storage!

Orsted has the European offshore wind market in its pocket and has a share price of around £40 (£100 iirc during the pandemic peaks). The top UK storage companies enjoy between, iiirc, 50-70p share prices. Interestingly this (crude as it is as a working) does suggest that there is still more potential upside to becoming the Orsted of tidal than just being a very good UK BESS company.

At SAE's current 3p a share there is obviously massive potential for a good many multiples being done before whatever happens medium term. It is still a long road to whatever the overall value of the company could be, and nearly impossible to guess at usefully, so patience remains a virtue, but we can maybe hope for a slightly easier road ahead. Personally I'm happy if SAE has done its time among the froth of AIM, and a steady climb suits me fine.