Member Info for Mehmet66

Useful timeline. I would have included the annual CfD auction results, the next being around July or August of this year, at an increased price per MWH over last year's. A growing stream of government-backed revenue will no doubt form part of the financial planning of Meygen and is likely to be reflected to some extent in the share price.

My mistake if it was an Andritz one that has been down there all that time. Thanks for clarification though. I stand by the bit about coming out preemptively and that we seem in ok shape.

Standard practice to renew auditors. Not good for transparency to have too close a relationship with your auditor.

SP is just market. Large UK renewables groups down by a proportionate amount. Was a lot of recent sentiment of certain rate cuts that is being tempered atm.

Given comments made to Abundance investors I am confident that Plan A is for the turbine order to go entirely to Proteus. That also has a 20% benefit to SAE due to the holding. I don't know what the Plan B is and as Proteus obviously attracted an injection of funds for the buyout, no reason not to believe that this is what makes them the well-capitalised manufacturer we've heard about. Let's see.

Turbine out of the water isn't great and we can look forward to the fourth going back in in the coming months. We know the revenue from each turbine is about £1.2m annually. Obviously that is welcome revenue but small on the scale we eventually hope to be talking. Remember that the turbine now in the workshop was brought out preemptively and having been in constant operation for around 4 years. That's before the upgrades now being made - it's a positive story.

We know that closing finance for the project is a big milestone slated for H1 2025. Let's hope we hit it. Longer-suffering investors will remember the recent highs of the share price came after Hanna announced their financing partnership for Usk conversion. These steps are by nature slow-moving but very significant when they come.

Another thing happening to the SAE shareholder base I feel is a movement out of the retail shareholder and day trader. Many will have been burned before, and the overall woes of stock market now weigh heavy on small caps with some risk involved. I could be wrong but I don't think we're going to see the 50% spikes around obsessively looking at vessel trackers when a new turbine goes in - these successes are nice but aren't the make-or-break or to-the-moon moments for this or any serious company. What is probably going to happen is slowly putting in place the footings for a large, successful company with a bright future, which serious investors will gradually take more interest in. It's a change I'd welcome and be overall positive for long term holders.

IIRC correctly Meygen financial close is H1 2025... so still a way off most likely.

Also ( hope not naively) I think we should consider financing as a regular business process rather than SAE needing to pull a rabbit out of a hat. SAE after all made financial close on a 4-turbine array when there was nothing in the water. The prospect of getting investors in line to enlarge the array from that start point, with something being operational , should be easier, and to be looked at as a process of hard work rather than a magic trick.

Pretty sure the last Abundance webinar referenced planning for Meygen BESS is hoped to come in H1, so that may happen sooner than we think.

Also investors in current macro climate reluctant to put forward cash in advance of assets being operational, which makes sense but is unfortunate. SAE seemed to have the measure of the situation however, even if undesirable, but does mean we can hope for the financials to pick up pace as construction gets underway (and if we start to see some rate cuts in 2024)

IMO very important not to talk too much about LCOE. Onshore wind has been cheaper than everything for a long time and got banned by Tories for thanks. Meanwhile nuclear is a regular overbudget, delayed white elephant and see how they chuck cash at it. Same for offshore wind... got its prices down nicely but still got screwed when it needed some support in face of rate hikes and inflation in material costs. No such problems with the oil & gas boys when they need a favour, because they made sure the political terrain was made for them, with no concern about the facts.

Very true that predictable tidal grid balancing is a fantastic asset in its own right, but UK supply chain, UK success story, Westminster not killing Scottish industry, are all just as valuable arguments, maybe even more so.

(Obviously this doesn't change that LCOE is definitely going fast in the right direction).

Good luck for 2024 everyone.

Hitting some development milestones on Meygen will be positive. Ironically we are likely to see at least one more CFD win for subsequent phases of Meygen before financial close not to mention construction.

Near term return to water of the fourth turbine (in H1 2024) will help both as return of a full array, and an extra £1m annual revenue (assuming no other turbine comes out with it).

Overlap of interests between Meygen growth and significant SAE ownership of Proteus will start to be interesting as and when Proteus is announced as turbine manufacturer.

BESS payments being finalised, as will granting of planning consent for more BESS at Uskmouth and Meygen in coming months.

Probable end of interest rate hikes from central banks - likely in 2024 and with positive effect for all equities, especially AIM-listed small caps.

IIRC the 2022 SAE annual report concedes that recent financial position had relied on equity raises - circumstances the company would now be moving out of. We can only hope no need to raise anytime soon, and the company an obviously more attractive prospect when it does.

In conclusion the foundations are looking a lot better but there is no science for when, how, and by how much the market will begin to value that. This is not an unknown company, many will have lost handsomely in it, so patience probably a virtue for a while yet.

Minesto - An interesting company but IMO no real comparison. The fact its kite is so different to most designs in the sector does not fill me with confidence. If nothing else it will be harder for Minesto to harness economies of scale enjoyed by manufacturers with more similar designs.

I also think it will be a positive outcome. Watched the webinar for debentureholders the other day and all sounded positive. Debentureholders received steady 10% on these bonds for years and even if maturity and rolling-over would have been nice, having watched other debentures on the Abundance platform collapse, I don't think SAE performance is looked upon too badly. Also the Abundance investor base is committed to climate change action and value chance to play a role in establishing the tidal energy sector. We will see.

Recent central bank statements about decrease of interest rates in 2024 will also be helpful. The share price went from 2p to 1p on not much more than interest rate hikes.

I am aware of that. Still good news both for beyond the first 80MW of Meygen, and BESS helping Phase 1 avoid the nasty surprises plaguing connection on UK renewable generation. Support from two bits of government policy is better than one.

That's good news about no EIA. They've made some noise over the years that the Meygen substation is the only onshore impact on the landscape, so I had wondered if a whole BESS might be problematic. Also wouldn't be surprised if the existence of the BESS and extra capacity helps National Grid focus minds on any necessary grid upgrades needing expansion for Meygen. Government starting to give priority to BESS and storage would also mean the project benefits from exposure to that angle, as well as tidal support.

Anyway it is very healthy to see this taking definite steps. Seemed a year ago like it was just a nice idea that might happen.

All looks good to me.

That it's £10m now but without owning the land 31 years from now really doesn't bother me too much. Very little disappointment that it is a small amount under the £11.8m for securitising the revenue that SAE once floated, but hard to moan in current market conditions. As mentioned it is only phase 1 of the BESS and the update on a BESS at Meygen is more exciting than losing a small amount of land that was tied up for the next three decades anyway.

It is not a bad offer they are putting to Abundance investors and I guess it would be accepted, meaning no liability headaches for a long time if the vote goes as we'd want. An increase in interest payment, repayment of capital starting earlier, and incentive for SAE to repay sooner or incur higher rates, is all reassuring. Continuing to receive 10% p/a or risk your investment going into default would seem a no-brainer imo.

Nice to see some Q2 certainty on turbine 4 going back under. Think bids for next tidal auction round open in March at the new strike price, with successful bids announced early Q3, so good things up in Scotland too. Initial market reaction seems of similar view. Also happy to have RNS and Abundance comms harmonised. Increasingly professional.

Update that there has been no news on the secondary market trading suspension on Abundance. Apparently information is due to be relayed soon.

The Abundance marketplace is for debentures that have already been bought, to offer some liquidity, so it is definitely not the case that the bonds were not sold!

Secondary trading of the bonds is simple but not effortless, my guess is Abundance would not want to waste time on it if debentures are about to be paid down and closed. As has been mentioned, at times this situation would be concerning but right now, with director deals, turn into profit, and the annual report showing less concern about going concern status, I do feel more likely that it is good news, perhaps exercising right to repay the extended debentures a little earlier.

SAE clearly value the Abundance relationship and even if it has not been all plain sailing, and there were some minor delays, they have never missed an interest payment. I suspect Abundance value this and it will probably be of mutual value if SAE can tie up the outstanding debentures and then go back to the platform for a new package over 5 years as Meygen expands. I'll share more news when I get it.

Sounds good. Today's announcement of 66% increase in CfD strike price for offshore wind a promising signal also.

Don't worry Mister Tidal, maybe Tidal Lover's investment history is statistical noise and you still get lucky the once.

Glad we're all in agreement then! Only say all this too cos as well as good work by MEC and others I increasingly see things like people writing in on letters pages about tidal, and politicians aren't up to much but they do have to reply to letters from constituents. Some are lazy but some will be keen to show that they're working for you, and paying attention to what voters are concerned about - even a narrow issue like tidal energy. If investors don't want to do this thats understandable I just think a better and probably less frustrating way to use energy.

Anyway as always watch yourselves and heres hopin' more good things up ahead.

The initial RNS about Proteus was one time where info was clearly lacking and I think it good that people pestered investor relations and that SAE then replied with better info. Other than that and whatever a CEO said about monthly updates 2 years ago it is better for me (and probably also for the share price) if info is only released when it is solid, something that won't happen often because these are big and slow moving deals taking place in what is pretty much a global economic crisis. There are many things about this board that are staggering including the fact that this would be a surprise. My instinct also is that even if SAE have sometimes been imperfect with info, they are not that bad, and all the energy that goes into badgering for info that isn't yet there, from people who want the same things you do, could really be better spent badgering politicians or whoever to expand on the very small amount of support we're just starting to see return after the whole industry got dumped in 2016.

It's not that I don't want more tidal promotion, of course I do, just think there's lots of wishful thinking in the idea that some social media will 'get the word out' and then up goes the share price. Onshore wind has sky-high public approval and awareness and lowest LCOE but no turbines up in a decade. Trade bodies like MEC, devolved government in Scotland and Wales, specific targeting of MPs with specific asks is where its at imo. Repeatedly telling an investor board of people who know already about tidal (and would also like the SAE price higher!!) that the company need to do better social media just never seems like a likely path to glory but I could be wrong.

Was a solid result in AR5, and a well-worded RNS with lots of little details that had realism and confidence from details we wouldn't have been aware of. The AR5 win helping burden of higher costs since AR4 was a nice reassurance, as was news of turbine planning. Hope everyone is enjoying it.

For share price and putting aside macro conditions, we are in a position where securitisation of BESS income would leave a situation of more cash at bank than equity value of the company, so would definitely expect a rerate from that. That news is due in Q4, and I think it fair to say there is a lot of retail daytrading in SAE, but in order to catch that upswing they have to actually stay invested, so the potential for a chain of good news benefits LTHs and maybe even brings in new ones. Any news of future BESS at Uskmouth also helps.

Overall I would hope for a mixture of repayment to Abundance next year, plus some investments rolled-over, bringing in potential new funding.

As for 'pushing the brand' and stuff, and social media - forget it. Orbital have a brand in tip-top condition, and Nova say they have IPO plans but neither seem to bother with socials any more. Meygen is basically a power plant, and when did a power plant have a social media presence? It is a first-of-kind pioneer in tidal energy space, and we can hope that has a bigger impact in driving interest to SAE. Would be much more upside to have from government announcing a 2030 tidal energy target, and an improved ringfence, than a few thousand new followers online. Once again enjoy the news and hope for greater rewards to patience.

What we can expect?

As per OFGEM on AR5 - news by September 10th iirc.

As per SAE annual report:

Securitisation of BESS phase one revenue by end Q4 2023.

Financial close on Meygen Phase2 in Q2 2025. This will be financed mostly you'd expect by regular project finance, as with Phase1. Annual report suggests costs of this capital slightly better than estimated in 2021.

You'll probably get a turbine redeployment sometime in that period too, and probably at least a Phase2 of the BESS plan at Uskmouth.

Still you can always just sell-up.. markets are great right now and I'm sure you'll get strong returns in loads of other companies!