Member Info for Mehmet66

JD - These were my thoughts exactly.

Deutscher - Be consoled that your SAE shares correspond to 10% of Proteus, and at the time 100% of what became Proteus. You did not buy under false pretenses, the world just changed, and although companies must always be respectful of the money of their investors, there is never a guarantee either of things staying the same or not losing money while hoping to make money as an investor in the work of others. That's life and that's investing.

Depends on the individual. Seems a conservative valuation for the company so I guess the idea is that the upside of taking equity is a return much higher than 11% , if you don't mind waiting for the exit. If you don't want to wait, then 11% return after about a year seems OK too. Nice pair of options and a year to make up your mind depending what happens. Obviously risks are your own etc but tempted to actually invest rather than just a little to follow news.

..will return*

Some thoughts, having watched the Proteus webinar, and combining what was said with ideas about SAE share price.

Firstly and the imminent reinstallation of the fourth turbine (by Proteus), likely a first instance of all four turbines being operational in many years, is excellent news not just for revenue of approximately £100k/month, but also what it signifies for Meygen and the UK tidal sector. I'll be curious to see what difference the installation operation (vessel arrival, RNS, etc) has on the SP. My hunch is that the large SP movements, pumped by day traders hyping/selling news when these offshore ops take place, are likely now a thing of the past and anyway distracted from useful assessment of SP.

Big news this week will be Bank of England decision on interest rates. BoE is reliably more hawkish than US Federal Reserve or ECB. They may but I doubt will follow the Federal Reserve's .5% rate cut, but combined with the west making wars everywhere, and economies flatlining, I cannot see how they could not make a .25% cut, and maybe .5%. Certainly the latter would feed positively into equities. All major benchmark renewables stocks have fallen in recent weeks, not just SAE. Additional to this, I suspect the recent SAE drop is down to traders who had been anticipating bigger gains off the back of a CFD win, and faster BESS planning decisions. This money comes and goes. The end of October will also see the Budget, hopefully with some details on financing for GB Energy.

Turning to Proteus. I found the webinar presentation very confident and felt other comments here almost a little reserved. The (iirc) £6.5million in revenue that SAE earned from Japan the year before the turbine business was spun out are clearly now among the recurring revenues for Proteus, additional to the recapitalisation the buyout achieved. While confidentiality obviously prevents disclosure, it seems Proteus think they have a strong chance of being named soon as turbine supplier at Meygen. This would of course be good news for Proteus, but also seems a more likely prompt of movement in the SAE share price. It hasn't been mentioned much, but SAE looking at BESS financial close in H1 2025, on a deal of around £65m, shows SAE in its current shape aims to secure tens of millions in project finance - precisely what a Meygen turbine order will require. Proteus confirmed that they will not be a direct manufacturer, but will outsource to an industrial major like Hyundai or GE, and this answers further questions about how large turbine orders for Meygen would be filled. Finally, strong prospects at Proteus, apart from making it sound like a good investment in itself, gives a sense the 10% holding in it by SAE is also materially valuable, or soon will be.

Further to this I suspect planning decisions in both Scotland and Wales will derisk the coming projects with incremental SP gains. As others have said, it is a world of traders not investors, but over time the latter wil

I think Proteus will struggle in the current economic environment for crowdfunding, but I don't think this is an instance or all-or-nothing crowdfunding. Whatever they bring in will likely just help top-up more institutional funding, and crowdfunding done well can be a good form of advertising, networking, and things other than the funds themselves.

Should go without saying to committed members of this board, and tidal enthusiasts, that a small investment in Proteus will also be the best way to get information on Raz Blanchard development (for which SAE gets a payment), 3MW turbine development, and the potential progress of potentially very large turbine orders from unnamed parties. There is an investor webinar later in the week where I'll probably put in a few questions.

This is very interesting, not least for adding to current upbeat mood at the company, and you'd guess they wouldn't share were there not something in it. Question is if they're talking co-location of projects to help solar make use of the valuable grid connections at SAE. Or, possibly, something new with the technology - I am reminded that Nova have a solar-tidal concept product, with panels located over water helping cool panels and enhance their performance. Perhaps Mey is too stormy for that but I'll still be interested to learn more.

I've also looked at the Proteus crowdfunder offer recently. Noticed that they already have a couple of dozen staff, which suggests that the company is indeed properly capitalised. Also seem very sure of turbine install in Japan soon, and France too, with what seems like a pretty definitive revenue forecast. Interestingly, and unusually for crowdfunders, the payback is more structured and offers an 11% rate of return or a conversion to equity when what is effectively a loan matures. All told and it seems encouraging: good news for turbine manufacture, the tidal sector, and the SAE holding in Proteus.

Ha! Many thanks Timaeus.. very kind of you to say, even if obviously an issue I've taken no joy in being correct about! I have always very much valued your thoughts also.

I do think the US Federal Reserve doing a big cut and saying more to come is indicative of these people realising they left it too long and have probably set in motion some real economic damage. Still think SAE have done on balance really rather well in such a turbulent and economically mismanaged time. Shareholders who managed to make it through this period without selling, and possibly accumulating, will probably be rewarded. There's certainly a lot of manifestly undervalued stuff out there, particularly in renewables.

A good weekend and general good luck all round, as always.

Correct about variation in tidal strength creating variation in MW output. Technical point but I'm pretty certain that a tidal turbine is always turning even if only a little, this iirc is actually one reason the technology is so well suited to battery storage because it means there is always a source of charge which improves battery performance.

I don't know why but despite a bit of friendliness now growing with neighbours at Orbital, I have a feeling that Andritz or Proteus turbines would be preferred model for a while. If I'm not mistaken the Hydrowing design is lots of smaller (Tocardo) turbines affixed to a submerged frame. The Andritz and Proteus models represent design convergence with the Nova design but at a much larger scale, with the Nova model I think being only rated for 200KW. Orbital being so close must present logistical advantages, but it's such a radically different design I feel there must be some drawbacks to project management. Who knows. On some level of course it is a nascent industry with small output so far, while SAE have a big CFD overall to fulfil - it may simply be the case that it is helpful or even necessary to draw on the manufacturing capacity of different firms.

Anyway happy with this latest win today, even if clearly some holders were hoping for more from the SP in response. Not surprised that down here in 2024 a 59MW at guaranteed price deliverable in 2029 isn't really priced that differently to 50MW at guaranteed price deliverable in 2028. We wait now on GB Energy and planning announcements which I always thought hold much more potential to move the SP.

Basically any CFD win is very good money, especially when you add a BESS storage optimisation option too. The current working out is about £100k/month per turbine (stated casually by both SAE and correlates with Munin's (another regular we recently forgot to mention!!) posting of figures) which is obviously healthy. After 50MW brought in with the previous two ARs, increasing that amount by 20% seems good to me.. it presumably also tops-up the profitability of the current setup in a way that should also help with financial close (or subsequent profitability) of earlier phases, which was always truly the next and most important big step . As someone else has noted, the cost of tidal per MWH coming down is also a good thing and exactly what the sector needs. That anyone would see any of this as anything but good news is beyond me, and the share price will respond as and when it's ready.

Haven't looked long at this and won't but I think for 1. Hydrowing are really doing well at catching up in tidal (they have their own install boat which must help enormously on costs), and 2. additional to large wins in the last two auction rounds it is good that we brought-in a further 9MW - the largest 'win' in the round (alongside 10MW at Hydrowing). To be honest I'd be more worried if I were Orbital and not expanding at all, but perhaps they're saving themselves for AR7 ... that would also make sense.

Overall looks like the growth in floating offshore is a big trend to watch and most of all we just need to bring home the circa 50MW of capacity we secured in the last two auction rounds. This additional 9MW will help nicely to enhance the growing scale and profitability of Meygen. Overall the planning permission on the Mey BESS represents a bigger imminent step-change for future profitability (and also the SP) than anything this CFD could have delivered.

Well done everyone... definitely no need in my view to be fuming.

Just to say that even with his questionable past comments about souks and just now calling us vermin (lol!) I too am fond of Deutscher as part of the gang. I intended the joke about CFDs to be friendly. Maybe we can just put it down to German humour. I would also add Pask? and Keltick ? to the old gang who will also be lost in the tide of ramping that is coming for us, before finally the SAE board dies because it's just a well-established company and the SP only ever moves a couple of % at a time.

Anyway.. for the more important news of the CFD. I am cautiously optimistic that we will see an uplift but I think it is as-likely to come from (or alongside) imminent planning progress due at both Mey and Usk BESS. I also double checked and we have two (I had thought only 1) outstanding payments for phase 1 at Usk BESS, totalling just under £3m, and I feel these milestones will have a small but good effect if only because they will be more cash-at-bank. I don't think the CFD news will see us go to the moon just yet but I am interested to see if the expanded pot and our phases already in the works will make for a substantively different situation and MW win. It isn't impossible. Taking a degree of solidity from news that the initial CFD win required OFGEM to see demonstrable milestones being hit as signs of progress, so we can only assume that is happening. The financial close (apparently on-track) H1 2025 is I think going to be the big one, but the nature of GB Energy tidal support also has, imo, some potential to make a big difference. Taken together, and along with almost certain rate cuts, as we all know and seem to feel, good things are coming up.

For near term I think and would be happy to see the share comfortably clear and stay above 3p. That would already be a 25% gain on the current price and I'm happy to go slowly to the moon. Given previous price support around 5p it may go well above 3p quite fast, but I'm more interested in the steady growth than these ups and downs.

Have a good weekend everyone and fingers crossed for good news next week.

i also remember @deutscher making what were (for a scottish company) very bizarre but quite ****** remarks about the management hanging out in a souk and not doing any work. nobody cried you might be islamophobic then just like nobody made any comment about you being german now. your english is good and seems to be much better than your understanding of sae or uk renewables policy. good luck with your investments.

I like how much Deutscher has complained about this company without even knowing what a CFD is! 😂

Another date for the calendar is I think September 18 when the Fed almost certainly announces a rate cut - probably too late to save the economy from the double shock of the US war in Ukraine and the rate hikes, but should have an upwards ripple through all global equities.

Good point Lutra - yes I suppose the geothermal potential rises considerably when we are talking about it as a source of heat and not only as a power source, which I think requires more specific rock types and higher temperatures. I feel there is an advanced project or plan of this nature with old mines somewhere around the Pennines.

That said and I might be wrong but so far I saw GB Energy talked about mostly in terms of electricity generation, and I think the polling was for renewable sources of electricity, for which I don't believe the UK has for geothermal anything like the much-touted 10GW of potential tidal. Would still be good to see more of it of course, both in heat and power.

The news comes when it comes @Strangy!

But to repeat the timeline coming up this should with luck mean:

CFD announcement inside the next 2 weeks

Turbine hopefully back in at MeyGen inside the next 6 weeks

Planning permission at Mey BESS inside the next 4? weeks

Scoping response at USK BESS (phase 3?) inside the next 4? weeks.

Second reading for the Bill in Parliament and GB Energy moving forward inside the next 3 weeks.

To give a little more detail on the scoping decision and your question. A scoping decision is prior to a planning application to find out about any likely hurdles. You do have your thinking a little upside down in in that SAE don't land a project and then begin developing it. SAE begin developing a project and then sell it. In the earlier stages of fixing Uskmouth for BESS the company had to sell/lease pretty much everything in the project, including land, because it was desperate. The recent news of buying back the operating rights of an USK BESS reflects decreasing urgency, the ability to retain and profit from operating projects, and a stronger position from which to retain ownership, or larger proportions of ownership, in future projects.

On the subject of the scoping decision; the chances are high that there are no problems and we proceed to a planning application. It is a project that fits the Welsh climate and renewable energy agendas, and we know because Usk is a brownfield site there is a presumption towards development. SAE are now familiar with this process and it should be a rinse and repeat of previous BESS applications at Usk, with the scoping decision the first stage.

Think of it if you like as the moon rocket having another fuel pod fitted ahead of take-off.

Interesting results. Level of public awareness would in the case of tidal be the more useful thing to have a measure of - I expect it is growing. I also expect that tidal stream benefits from large, prominent tidal barrage projects like on the Severn, as a result of an assumption they are one and the same technology. People generally do tend to be pro-renewables when asked, but it is good for awareness that tidal is being included in questions among mature technologies.

One interesting inconsistency is geothermal energy being included in the polling of "other notable" sources, but not tidal, despite tidal having more deployment in the UK. That changes when the Cornish geothermal plant comes online later this year or next, but in general I think tidal has more UK potential than geothermal, so doesn't quite add up.

Good to see the public haven't been swayed by the nuclear lobby. All but the most idiotic could see from the cost and delays to the Hinkley plant (not to mention uranium supply and disposal), that it's a disastrous technology type. Shame the lobby is so powerful and the media and politicians so crooked, stupid, or both.

Thanks as always on posting these figures, Munin.

Think this is quite big - I assumed we sadly just had a turbine out of action and we would stay at-best at 3 turbines, with the uprated one going back in and the out-of-commission one coming out: understandable but disappointing.

Being back at three operating turbines with the fourth due for redeployment within the next month and a half gives a realistic chance of potentially soon having a full array of four operating turbines after all. Because of the cost of vessel hire, we know for a certainty that if there is any maintenance at all needed in the foreseeable future on any of the turbines currently down there then it will be coming out. This in turn means it is probably safe to deduce that if no turbine does come out then we should equally have a full array operational for the foreseeable future. I guess we find out soon.

You're still doing that Reddit forum @Mister_Tidal?

That is fine work indeed! If the share price ever goes Gamestop style and we pass the £10 mark then you'll have to send an address and I'll transfer you an ETH or two!

Firstly I'd say don't be impatient and maybe even tune-out. The SP is doing very well (bear in mind wider market uncertainty right now) and has already undergone a substantial re-rate very recently. Secondly you can always wait for it to go lower for a bigger bargain that might not come, or you can - I think probably safely - assume that the SP will go higher and anything bought in the 2s (or probably 3s and maybe even 4s) will before long seem like a very good price - just as it would be a fantastic price to people who invested in 2017.

Overall I would bear in mind that this is still an AIM-listed retail stock and probably very attractive to day traders. You can trade a 10%+ fluctuation in a day and - now that the long-term security of SAE seems secure - this even limits your downside and reduces the uncertainty of such trades.

I would suspect - and think recent activity evinces this - that there is still a good amount of 'selling the news' going on. Materially good developments occur, price tests and breaks 3pm and people who watch and do this regularly take some profit as new money comes in. I suspect that at some point some of that profit is reinvested to help juice a little bit of movement, which again doesn't take too much when an SP is low and volume traded is limited.

I say all this as a committed long term holder in SAE. Whatever day-trading games happen at these prices is immaterial to the price SAE should be reaching, and for now it's just all part of the market as the company starts to get noticed again. Once that happens and beyond a certain point momentum should build more steadily.

Good luck to you but remember as always the risks of any investing.

Remains my opinion that Orbital have provided great advertising for UK tidal industry as a whole, helped by such an iconic design and being very professional in marketing it.

Noticing too that SAE have started to promote them a little more since becoming neighbours at Nigg. Makes me think that at some point there will just be an advantage to having more than one well-capitalised turbine supplier, especially such a local one, and SAE will perhaps be turbine-agnostic and Meygen will have different models.

On the other hand - SAE previously did sound a lot like they had made the decision that bottom-rooted and on monopiles was the way to go. As I understand it, Orbital harness greater power because tides are stronger closer to the surface, but the model of not being seabed-fixed puts a lot of strain on four points of the design, especially where chains meets the nacelle and the anchors. The O2 was apparently down for a while lately awaiting maintenance on some of this.

There is also the valid argument that the O2 is not the world's most powerful turbine, but two 1MW turbines attached to the same hull - there again and like I say, Orbital have proven very good at marketing.

Nonetheless it is good to see more and positive media, and I'm confident all this will be overcome. Funny watching the presenter look at a single turbine and then point out that it generates less power than the country's largest wind farm!