Member Info for Mehmet66

RJ and Laura,

Would add to that sensible roundup that SAE previously repaid all outstanding loans to SIMEC company, suggesting a loan facility could exist there if needed. Also Scottish Government have invested before - they probably would not want to repeat the unconventional way they did that time, but they remain a valued partner and possible source of backing.

For Abundance and whatever the rules of the platform allow, compared to other investments on it SAE may not be as unpopular with members as some. Despite the extensions, SAE have made all payments with exception of a couple that had to be delayed a month or two, they have paid new penalty rates of interest, and the tidal sector continues to move forward with the help of Meygen, which I think Abundance members value. Against the total collapses and restructuring Abundance has witnessed from some parts since Ukraine and interest rates, that might not rank too bad with investors. Will be interesting to find out.

Nobody mentioned it but the below was something that I thought interesting from annual report, in spite of rates and everything there has been a small projected *decrease* in the cost of capital for financing Meygen. This would be encouraging as it suggests a lower risk than before.

"The model is based on probability weighted sensitised cash flows using a weighted average cost of capital ranging from 8% to 10% (2021: 8% to 12%). Capital costs for the subsequent phases of the MeyGen project are based upon 3rd party quotes for the capital cost of developing the 28 MW Phase 2 array"

Welcome anyway and thanks for views. Always feels sensible for a company when a board is attracting sensible thoughts and questions. Helps keep at bay the rampers, derampers and general madness.

In response to Noisyboy's original point we can sadly expect higher opex in a year with so many turbine changes - mostly down to vessel hire. With many turbines now upgraded to same status as the one that spent years on the seafloor without issue, we can hopefully expect lower opex, and eventually many more turbines from similar opex.

On AR5 was more news today. Government increasing wind and solar budget. Tidal gets a mention which is good but only maintaining the £10m ringfence. Good that the sector is getting more attention and has clout enough to get a mention, but a smidgen disappointing not to have more money allocated in response to cost pressures.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/energy-security-boost-with-multi-million-backing-for-renewables

All going to plan and things like £11m securitisation of BESS income, or real progress on a second project, should see some change in share price. A tough market for any share when you can get 5% in the bank, but if the near-term milestones come good then it should begin to look like good value at this price. Do think that imo another success in AR5 would also help with that.

Good to take a look back at that corner I think we might have started turning.

As a few have mentioned, very nice sentence this:

"Management’s forecasts through to 31 July 2024 anticipate revenues from trading will increasingly meet the working capital requirements of the Group."

A number of encouraging numbers in there but the key information points are just as good. Heads of Terms signed on a new BESS. Co-development of BESS. Advanced plans on a BESS at Meygen, with it obviously being recognised that that would be a whole new renewable technology type. Nothing explicit of course but it felt a bit like they were inferring something like a grant could be available for that, which is no more than you'd expect anyway.

Obviously a long way to go but it sounds like there is good focus at SAE, and in short term a number of quite well-advanced developments that as and when announced should bring a boost. Nice one everyone holding on!

Think that's unduly glum and a seems a bit like an emotional reaction, even if that's understandable.

A few things to consider:

Compared to other projects caught up in the last year of market chaos and rate hikes, BESS at Uskmouth has actually stayed pretty well on-track. Management deserves some credit though it points also to the boom in interest in UK energy storage. SAE communication through that period hasn't always been great but it is also not that bad when compared to other AIM listed companies when things aren't going great.

We'll all be waiting on the report but a few things stand out lately. The consistent delivery of news when there is news (and much of it showing steady progress) is good. The consistent RNS reassurance to shareholders is understandable when many are so down on investment, but I don't think they would be offering that reassurance at all unless on some level management think is plausible - not sure it would do any favours to do so.

If we take the statement at face value, the decision to take Turbine 4 out preemptively shows management for the future. We know for a fact that vessel hire is the main cost so that makes sense. The extensive period of works carried out recently, not just switching the one turbine, shows clear proactive site management is happening. The big thing to consider is the extent of the works done already for Meygen - the onshore cabling and substation, very big one-off costs that were already covered and with more turbines can be taken advantage of.

There are some small and encouraging signs here in a very rocky time. Put aside the 20% Proteus stake (and Uskmouth) a second and still there is a big amount of revenue potential at Meygen, but also a lot of learning being done for how to optimise this site, and maybe one day replicate it.

Maybe I'm barking up the wrong tree.. the annual report will confirm a lot, as will AR5 results. Time will tell but some signs worth consideration.

With small but broad uptick across the market in the last week, and this good news, interesting to see where the share price comes back in at. Be nice to see the last of the underside of 1p for good.

..for the trading suspension from Monday for a while? Mow the lawn, clean the house, read a book, take up a hobby? Think of all the hours! Gonna be bliss. Happy SAEholidays everyone!

It did look very fouled, which they don't normally, so hoping it's the one that's run constantly since 2018 - out for routine maintenance or whatever. Only a guess though and in some ways just as impressive if that one is still going strong - great bit of proof of industry reliability.

Good to have confirmation that the lease was completed. Rough ride as always but positive news.

Recent Abundance webinar said £150k/turbine.

Fwiw re Alderney, I think the tidal project went with the FAB (France - Alderney - Britain) interconnector that would've made tidal profitable there (as an export rather than just providing to the small Alderney market). Credit to Simec for making themselves available at the time, but I think FAB hit all kinds of obstacles including corruption and the opportunity not coming off isn't the fault of the company.

All of the negativity about the company needs to be filtered through the fact that Tories pulled the rug out on the industry and everyone has been playing catchup since - thus the enthusiasm from SAE, Nova and everyone when the CfDs came back.

For why the CfD win didn't create a total U-Turn on the company I would say it is a long game. The repeat raises done when throwing money after Usk would immediately be a red flag for many larger investors who as a matter of course won't invest in any company that has raised repeatedly in recent history. Hope would be that time since last raise + more improvements will see an improving sentiment.

I received a perfectly courteous reply from Parsons and things all sounded under control earlier in the year.

There is an hour long webinar and Q&A up on Abundance. You can probably pick up a debenture for under 50quid and watch it and receive the approximately half yearly debenture updates.

Haven't said anything because at least some of the webinar and its slides were noted as confidential, but Graham Reid did say the share price was disappointing rather than a problem, and understanding it a result of past setbacks. It all sounded pretty level-headed. Was nice surprise to hear him say he wants to see the company get to a place where it can pay a dividend. Don't know when that is and it isn't a strategic plan on its own, but still a helpful insight into longterm ideas, and sense that things are under control.

Obviously not as good as being flush with cash but prefer what the company has to be spent on things like turbine redeployment.

Not totally unexpected either if you ask me. If lease payment is due in 3 weeks and this in 4 then that leaves a very narrow window for moving millions between at least three institutions. Much better to restructure than have the debenture move into technical default.

Good news. Expect more to follow with the cash in a few weeks. iirc a payment or maybe repayment of an Abundance debenture is due end of June so would obviously be good (and maybe is just the plan/reason for the option expiry date today) to have the money in to cover that without need for an extension. Again iirc Orbital experience on Abundance saw about half the value of the bond rolled-over into a new one by debentureholders happy to stay involved. That newer one was a longer bond, on lower interest rates and over longer period as project derisked after the turbine was built and in the water. Would be good if SAE get the same sort of deal, and a bonus if means some of the payment didn't leave the company right off the bat.

Good news anyway. Sure there is some sort of technical or legal reason why the wording is a bit odd.

Good to be reminded of some of these numbers, some of them familiar and certainly not all of them great. I continue to feel good about the fact that one of the turbines operated consistently since 2018/9, evidence it can be done. I think fundamental problems and the outages (like choosing the wrong yaw mechanism, not having wet-mates) were inevitable in early development and are one offs that won't repeat, even if therell be new issues.

Agree about very poor UK culture of supporting new companies and R&D (French Technip are the firm that took a chunk of Orbital) but I think this is more a concern now for Proteus (and us before) because that's where lots of the innovation (both funding it and gains later) now is. SAE basically has a more straightforward task to build a single power plant in the best possible way.

Not totally sure about ROC and CfD agreements. I may be wrong but I think it is more recent CfDs where the government makes money back if market price goes above strike price - part of justification for windfall tax on many renewable generators is that earlier CfD arrangement meant they also got to keep the upside. Another question is if electricity generated is sold in advance as a PPA or similar - some generators made much bigger profits because bigger proportion of energy is sold on the spot market. Some make less because it was sold for agreed prices in advance. Pretty patchy information on where SAE sits - at some point we were definitely selling an amount in advance for an agreed price, which would limit our upside from last year's high prices. Find out soon I guess.

Nice to have views and info exchanged anyway. Bumpy ride in an awful market but imo does something to make the whole situation easier to understand.

Imo this is a bit pessimistic, but I keep it in mind and would be good to see some proper numbers. Trying to remember what we're going off here?

Considering how complicated SAE has been, it would seem hard to put a pure number on profit/loss at Meygen. That figure would be combined with costs from old seabed leases and project development in dozens of sites globally, turbine manufacture and R&D, GHR, Uskmouth and more. Even two of the Abundance debts are openly a mix of use for Usk and Meygen. Meygen profitability is an interesting question, and obviously has advantages of scale still to grow. Would be happy to be pointed at/reminded of any numbers that give a clearer picture of the site alone, and there obviously isn't any info about current situation since cost-cutting.

What do you want them to do? RNS that the turbine is in the workshop but they're just waiting to hire a vessel? Then RNS it again when the slot is booked? You're given information, then ask if anyone has info and say that you don't trust that information.

The company won a big CfD last year and that alone didn't stop the share price falling, so we hope for good news in summer but it isn't guaranteed to reflect soon in the SP. Only those comfortable with LTH will see those gains.

Seems quite clear the SP is waiting on BESS financial close and that financial clarity. That will be good news as and when it hits, but even without it the forthcoming annual reports will show what impact high energy prices/revenues and the cost-cutting programme made. That's the thing to watch for, and if BESS funds can land before that then situation might even look better than expected.

The wetmate upgrade is being done on-site in the Nigg workshop. Maybe that's an obvious point but maybe also helpful for people to realise the turbine is in there.

As Marc says SAE owns a fifth of one of the named companies. The vid is full of footage advertising Meygen and SAE. The vid makes accurate claims about tidal sector getting ready for commercialisation, and the truth of that, and the fact being sold so positively and professional in a vid like this is obviously good for creating political support for tidal. This then increases possibility of more ringfenced funding for tidal and bigger allocation for Meygen.

If you dont trust SAE to capitalise on all this then no problem, but it is obviously not irrelevant to a company operating the world's largest tidal energy project.

This was released this week and I think overall shows how the industry is growing. Interesting mentions of both Raz Blanchard and quite a few of Proteus (good for the shareholding at least). No mention of Meygen but lots of footage of it and Japan and Atlantis turbines, as well as Orbital and Minesto and other usual suspects. Would be nice to have SAE named among it all but end of the day Meygen is the working site, earning revenue and CfDs. It is good to have a lot of projects in the sector growing, and momentum for more official support. Nice video.

https://interregtiger.com/tiger-project-is-driving-growth-of-tidal-energy-in-uk-and-france/

I definitely have positive outlook for the company but it isn't an easy time. Very good to see Quinbrook also making noise to their own stakeholders about BESS at Uskmouth as that shows how invested they are in it. Financial deals are all backed-up right now, everything is moving at glacial pace. Who knows, maybe SAE are even working to extract terms that reflect some account of recent inflation costs. Maybe not.

I do think very public shareholder impatience around turbine 4 might even weaken SAE position in negotiating for vessel hire - all just a guess but not inconceivable. They updated prognosis for turbine 4 install as H1 some time ago - disappointing but still some time according to this schedule, therefore.

At end of day you have government-backed, inflation-linked revenue from Meygen. Hard to compete with that but also hard to get hype for anything in these market conditions. You can't look at SAE separate from the wider market. In the last 6 months TRIG posted their best ever post-IPO results, great profits, and share price 10% down to show for it. ITM sit on a huge cash pile and are, if UK government ever sort it out, sure to benefit from hydrogen economy - share price down by 80% or something.

Sadly we just have to wait - SAE has more prospect of good news on the horizon than most, upside of being in sustainable energy, and with growing interest and policy in support of tidal. Would recommend pushing those things.