Member Info for Mehmet66

A quick misreading on my part there: £4.5m revenue from Meygen (within £10m overall). Also turbine scheduled for redeployment now in Q3. Disappointing slight delay but at this stage one can expect it is now certainly within the coming months. Will be looking forward to some boat-watching excitement and it will be fun to think about it not even affecting the SP!

The report in full makes for great reading. Very professional outline and and reduced debt and costs particularly reassuring.

Another noticeable thing is that today we hit what I think is approximately a 3-year high in the SP. These things come and go of course but they do highlight progress to those watching precisely these metrics.

Good to see strong buying pressure even high above 2p. Seems like a good deal of price support is building, as it should be with the clearer understanding of NAV.

The Simon Hirst CFO interview is as impressive if not more. His is a slightly better communication but both have an absolute straightforwardness about where things are at and going, including on the replicability of these results. If anything I find the absence of a glitzy sales pitch reassuring - it all quite simply speaks for itself.

Noticeable too that tidal is spoken of as contributing to the operational experience on BESS, but is scarcely mentioned as part of the business case - which focuses on BESS. Tidal is almost presented as an additional upside for new investors. Very reassuring mention of raising finance rather than equity for additional projects.

Incredible set of results and richly deserved reward to long-term patience. Whatever the exceptional 2022 energy price situation owing to Ukraine, it is still fantastic to see Meygen bring in in excess of £10m revenue.

Well done all. Enjoy.

It is all just feeling quite healthy right now. If Proteus really are moving towards a viable 3MW turbine, even without the 20% SAE holding, that is great news for the sector. Then if you add in Orbital picking up work in the US and Nova having it in Canada and EU (the former getting built the latter serious funding) as well as potentially Indonesia (where diesel power on remote islands with strong tides is hugely expensive/polluting/wasteful).. we really are starting to look like we have a sector on our hands.

And all this is without even mentioning Meygen, which is of course the flagship and most successful project in that entire sector, and stands to grow naturally with it.

I wouldn't say 6 months, but it will be interesting to see where things stand a year from now.

I'm not expecting anything to change in time for the next announcement, especially not with bids having already gone in. My curiosity is more what amount SAE feel they can deliver and at what price (much more/ much lower?) on the basis of the economies of scale now being built by all prior phases at Meygen.

For next year it is hard to say but I'm cautiously optimistic. A GB Energy with an HQ in Scotland (for all the Labour weaselling and absence of hard cash backing) is certainly going to be good for tidal. Similar the desire of the Westminster set to perhaps see off the SNP when weak again means I think tidal is pretty safe from too much meddling that would anger Scotland needlessly.

I've been impressed with the method and motivation from the MEC. As such I'd be surprised if the ring-fence isn't increased in the next round. I also think a formal GW target for tidal is an inevitability that will help build momentum, and it is low-hanging fruit for government to provide. I think EMEC in Orkney growing in scale and business model will help make another compelling advocate for investment, especially as it has to become financially more self-reliant. Same applies for the successes the other main manufacturers seem to be enjoying, especially with big funding going from the EU to Nova.

Finally I would not be too centred on the CFD model. MEC are I believe rightly advocating for alternatives to support it (although not replace). Think of CFD as a trickle-down approach to a problem - at a higher price you make lots of money if you can generate lots of power. This is great until your cable frays or your yaw mechanism breaks and you are making no power. Targeted grants for technology development not only help avoid this they also provide up-front funding that is crucial to new technologies. Again, I think MEC are abreast of this and let's hope to see some of it adopted; push-factors to support the pull of the CFD mechanism.

Meanwhile it will be good to see the report soon, and hopefully also Graham Reid's interview before long.

Key word missing there was Meygen financing*.

I think you're right to highlight some big stuff on the horizon, and a high likelihood of some good news that will continue the upwards trajectory. Very curious to see what sort of scale a new phase of Meygen could win in forthcoming CFD.

For me though the next truly pivotal thing is Meygen scheduled to be announced in H1 2025. So I think your time frame is out, even though a SP improvement before isn't impossible and would be nice, especially if we are finally to see an end to the harsh interest rates policy soon.

Well for that MT you've nobody to blame but yourself!

Obviously no idea what you set your order at but wouldn't be surprised if it vibrates a little round this price as day traders take their microprofit, but of course we all hope that the only way is up, and way way up.

Good luck to you.

Very interesting and good to have ITM provide an electrolyser in Norway rather than the locals at Nel.

As ever some good points from Timaeus and I think his conviction of the need to lease turbines is of course the key to all this. I think 1. we have to presume that nobody would have taken on Proteus without the capacity to provide just that, because it is obviously the only viable business model in turbines. I also think 2. That people at Proteus are thinking about this as hard as people at SAE are thinking about Meygen.

Beyond that. I am happy that presentations to Abundance have proven correct in suggesting that Meygen BESS was every bit as advanced as Usk. I once had a conversation with SAE comms team in which I mentioned the lack of news and they said "when construction starts it's easy to put out more RNSs at every stage". It always stayed with me that certainty around "when construction starts".

Other things. Timaeus' points about turbine manufacture also sit alongside the recent cordial expression of welcome to Orbital at Nigg. Orbital of course themselves are presently doing exactly what Timaeus sets out - manufacturing around a half dozen turbines to meet their own CFD needs. It also points to the capacity for expansion at Nigg. We should also I believe hold in mind that between Meygen and Japan, Proteus does indeed have thousands and thousands of hours of data, past mistakes, and learning with which to inform the manufacture of the 3MW turbine.

A final point on dates - we have to have power into the grid by spring 2027 to meet the CFD requirements. That said I read recently of government criteria on CFDs that obliged projects enter the CFD as soon as generation was possible, this was to avoid projects capitalising on high prices during the Ukraine proxy war, and selling at market prices for a while before the CFD began. This is not an essential point, but it does suggest that a project can turn on when it's ready, potentially before any hard deadline at which it must.

Good luck to everyone and enoy the good news. All goes to plan and there'll be more before long.

Wouldn't trust Starmer and Labour as far as I could throw them, especially since the U turn on the original spending pledges and the promise to continue austerity.

As I've said many times I think a massive part in the fall is interest rate hikes to cover the inflation from Ukraine, so the beginning of the reversal in that I think promises a great deal for us.

On this was reading some analysis yesterday and forecast was an uptick particularly for .... small caps and utilities. Which sounds about right to me.

Also lol @wenglishboy having no complaints apart from the losses! A very forgiving approach to owning a stock!

Anyway good luck to everyone. I think the company is turning a corner and I hope those losses get made back and more.

If we can see a 25% move without even an RNS and the extent of Mister Tidal's negativity is that the substantive buy is an insider trade then something good must be happening.

Here's hoping on actual good RNSs soon. Between planning apps, turbine 4, and AR6 there should be some cause for them. Patience is definitely a virtue here.

Orbital arriving at Nigg is very interesting imo. Remember there was the past potential collaboration with Nova at Meygen. At the end of the day Meygen has to supply tidal power but can be agnostic on which turbines are used, or what mixture of turbines. Whatever happens there have to be synergies from being this close. Promising.

Nice news - also from what I remember of an old Abundance presentation the Meygen BESS application is at least as advanced as those at Usk. Interesting that the market would place so much value on it but I guess a power source paired to a storage system that can sell at optimal prices is a pretty strong proposition.

*monopile!

We had years ago Drew Blaxland rolling his eyes at running a hydraulic pitch adjustment mechanism rather than the eventual electric one.

We had every turbine with its own cabling because the subsea cable wasn't around.

Every turbine on gravity foundations and now moving to monopole.

Going from 1.5MW to 3MW turbine size is definitely a big question, but overall Meygen should be seen as a probably very successful R&D project in turbulent economic and political times that were hard to control for. It makes very little sense to expect a new technology to be immediately successful with only the first 4 examples of that technology in the water. Lots of sub-ideal circumstances not least of all share price but no reason not to believe that they didn't start out needing to learn pretty much everything, and as has been pointed out, SAE probably have done quite a lot of learning invaluable to the company and the sector.

Good to see it coming along and SAE barely even mentioned. Actually think it's quite welcome to be just a plain old project developer. Construction completion and progress will help unlock new opportunities too - companies aren't taking any unnecessary risks investing in plans right now and material facts in place should open things up a bit.

Tidal stream is also exportable - you can sell turbines around the world and ship them in ways you can't big concrete barrages. Barrages are always eye-catching because they can generate loads of power and being so place-specific represent regional opportunities. They also deliver very cheap and reliable power but the payback is more over 50-100 years while CFD structure is for 15 (although change is apparently coming to recognise barrage ROI over long periods). Another example of how UK policy in particular is short termist. I do think energy price shock of recent years will however have focused minds in regional authorities and so some of these good value projects may finally happen. It is all good for the tidal supply chain because of similarities of many parts and resulting economy of scale in a developing sector.

People should be complaining loudly about the need for a £30m ring fence and the need for an official target for tidal by 2030, but I think the current level of support is now, without wanting to jinx it, low but secure enough. The flop of the last CFD auction due to higher costs, and quick increase to auction prices in the next round, I think shows the government got at least some of the message that it can't be complacent or mess about any more. Tidal should have been here in 2017 but better late than never.

The whole tidal stream sector is imo doing well. Orbital just got a new project in the US, Hydrowing seem to be developing at a good rate, and Nova continue to bring in big funding and in Edinburgh their factory is operational and producing turbines. They also have their Canadian, French and Indonesian projects and I think will bid for a CFD this year. The Proteus news from Japan is also good news for the sector and 20% very good news for SAE!

Share price - I think we will get news on BESS soon and I think development of BESS at Meygen in the medium term also. Overall Meygen is a 300MW power plant with no fuel costs, so at some point the revenue will be there (as it would have been with Usk). For now and people have money parked in savings accounts or stocks paying dividends but as SAE hits milestones, at current prices it is going get gradually more attractive, but hard to say especially with macro trends at what precise point that is. As many have said I think the team managed crises of recent years pretty well all considered and it is exciting if choppy to be involved with the biggest company in probablt the most exciting sector of the renewables economy.

No price target here and did not want to be too harsh in response, I just felt you painted it a little bit too much like a lost cause when reality is we know the creditors are supportive and that things are improving: debentures rolled-over, going concern status resolved, moved to profitability and should have more of the one-off payments for BESS that brought that improvement about.

It is just a hell of a market right now, and you can get 5% in a bank for no risk. SAE turned a very positive few corners just as the world economy turned some very negative ones, but at some point I think that will right itself and patience will be rewarded. It isn't like there are other small cap or even big ESG stocks with a positive story right now.

Labour will be better but it depends on things like if the Greens can pressure them in marginal seats. Good to see Marine Energy UK have now said it wants to see a £30m tidal ring-fence. Every tidal company that is now growing also adds to its ability to make this case.

That said I think Mister Tidal is being negative - Meygen's main creditors are Scottish Enterprise who have an interest in the sector succeeding, are doing the long term development funding tidal needs, and unlikely to want to do anything that jeopardises Scotland and the world's biggest tidal stream project.

Also Meygen does not rely on public money - it relies on government making policy that supports new and beneficial technologies, in a way government should be expected to. These are not the same thing.

Meygen and USK need to hit milestones and probably will but at a pace not unusual for significant infrastructure projects. There is also lots of evidence that tidal - especially paired with storage - is a superior renewable energy source to others.

As always, we are in a bad market, and renewables funds that booked bumper years can still expect to be 20% down on last year's prices. At some point this will also change, and I think SAE hovering around 1.2 on promise of good news has now at 0.8 just taken the hit already seen in the SPs of other big funds over recent months. As always, it does not track the market tightly.