Member Info for Mehmet66

I wouldn't talk nationality but you are the one who comes in talking about 'Mediterraneans' (for a Scottish company!), and now 'shady souks'.

You sound strange and like you could use a holiday.. one where you don't keep working.

German complains other people aren't working hard enough while waiting to make money in stock market

Heard the partnership ended because Nova were concerned SAE could gain valuable info on Nova turbine performance if they had all access to turbine data at Meygen. Sounds totally amicable parting of ways and makes sense.

Aside from the 21% stake in Proteus, there is so much expansion to do at Meygen, especially if SAE begin pioneering a BESS/tidal operation there. I think it will be a while before other sites are added(we've been down that route before), but this transition from manufacturer to project developer was always in the works, always a tension, and Orsted certainly haven't done badly despite never making a turbine. IMO probably the Orsted model that will be followed one day, but that is a way down the line and there are loads of lower-hanging megawatts before that.

Last Abundance update said deployment Q2. Everything sounded under control though so with luck early in the Q. Useful info about future plans for BESS, including SAE developing knowhow to operate one independently at Meygen. All felt quite constructive.

Good news in the RNS today, demonstrating clear path towards financial stability. Good to have more details on Usk BESS expansion plans, and storage at Meygen would be great as tidal predictability is known to pair very well with storage systems.

Nice to have news of future raises on Abundance platform as it is a great source of capital from committed investors, and good to see a continuing working relationship between SAE and Abundance. Also nice to have more news on securitisation of BESS revenues.

Hope now that debenture holders vote it through, but seems to me well worked out and takes us in the right direction. The plan for a future raise on Abundance shows some confidence in this outcome, as a default or rejection of terms would presumably be the end of that relationship.

Not as good an RNS as 100MW bagged in AR5 of course, but solid and takes SAE another step in the right direction.

SAE get price support from government but the consumer purchases the energy at or close to market price. In this case perhaps it carries a small premium for being a pioneering renewable supply, which fits the Smartest Energy brand and mission. The consumer doesn't pay the cost price. A bit like the Cornwall geothermal power due online soon, with its output bought by Ecotricity because their customers want green and it fits the brand to help pioneer new clean energy.

@Blonnyman see your point of view on equal comms but also that a debenture is a very different product to an equity so I don't really begrudge there being a difference. Also feel is a sign of a good relationship with Abundance which is also to be welcomed. A lot of what is shared is info that gets reported elsewhere, tho of course something good about direct communnication anyway.

Had the same question myself about if it meant specific debt to Abundance. No info beyond what I posted so I would optimistically like to guess it is, as said, total debt. Do think the restructuring is probably making headway, and even past news on e.g. there being no outstanding loans to Simec has given hint that they were getting on top of it.

SAE offered its end of year update to Abundance investors. I believe there are a few bonds for sale on the Abundance secondary market for anyone who wants to receive more and future info. Seems I can't copy paste everything into this board but sharing the below section on debt because I feel the mix of anxiety and incomplete info often shared isn't helpful to anyone, especially those fixating on it, and the overall debt issue once BESS funds are secure sounds like it is in-hand and even positive.

Also including section on Meygen and AR5 as it came up a lot recently and SAE (as with Orbital / unlike board members) sound positive.

Also mentioned was further BESS possibilities at Uskmouth and seems like conversation in Eastern Europe around that conversion knowledge. Not sure anything is going to the moon just yet, but imo a good update all the same.

MeyGen Subsequent Phases
SAE welcomes the recent government announcement that tidal stream will participate in Allocation Round 5, applications for which will open in March 2023. MeyGen expects to participate in Allocation Round 5 and win additional tidal capacity which may be added to the 28MW already secured in Allocation Round 4.

Debt Covenant Reporting
Under the terms of your Debentures, we are required to ensure the value of our group's assets is at least 2.8x the value of the total debt we have outstanding - this is called our debt covenant ratio. We are informing our investors that SAE forecasts that it will not meet the minimum Total Debt to Total Assets ratio of 1:2.8 as at the 31st December 2022. The ratio is forecast to be 1:2.2. However, SAE expects that the breach will be remedied during Q1-23 when the previously announced 230MW Battery Energy Storage System reaches financial close. At that point a £6m loan provided by EOS, the battery project developer, will convert to revenue and a further £4m development premium will be realised which will improve the ratio to approximately 1:3.6.

Would have been nice if AR5 had said "£100m ringfenced for tidal" but it didn't. It didn't say anything specific about any other technology type either. If AR4 had been structured the way you are presuming AR5 will be then floating wind would have got everything then too. Reason to believe that some curation of the pot will take place to ensure against that, especially with growing visibility for tidal and appreciation of predictability.

All this considered it seems good that a company (Orbital), who know the policy detail and history better than we do, is actually welcoming the news. IMO still the case that writing to an MP or Ofgem is a better use of energies than this board. It also seems good that the budget per MWH is up from £178 to £202. Again, if the pot structure is what you are suggesting then I don't know why BEIS wouldn't just put out a press release saying it's all going to floating offshore wind, because that's what your interpretation of stated numbers suggests. The £202 figure would seem more like bad news if you are a small tidal stream company that can't envisage getting a project in under that figure.

There's obviously both lots been done (BESS, AR4, consolidating Atlantis) and lots to do. Hard to imagine a worse environment for equities and especially a company with SAE's profile, but until central bank interest rate policies change it's hard to see what one CEO in one company is going to do. The last CEO was good at doing the rounds and drumming-up interest in the share price, but still presided over the greatest fall in value, not to say that it's all his fault either. Have to hope that selling electricity, and gaining government-backed contracts for it, are as solid an income stream as you get in this time, and at some point that will begin to show in the SP.

All that said I'll keep my complete and utter rubbish opinions to myself from now. Happy new year!

Saw this recent tweet from Orbital, welcoming news on the AR5 structure. This seemed like the common-sense view anyway, but adding here to reassure anyone who doesn't run a tidal energy company but worried that AR5 was bad news not good news.

Also definitely see it as good news to have a CEO running a company and not a Twitter account.

https://twitter.com/Orbitalmarine/status/1603025867881746434?s=20&t=HGiCTOP-1SPkz3tCYNnyNA

I think on the contrary it would be strange (but fantastic!) news for an MoU discussing 80GW of power, with many gigawatts already being generated, and gigawatts of interconnectors, between more than half a dozen countries, to have mentioned a technology that for now only has a few megawatts generating, even with the future potential.

I hope you write to your MP and others about tidal as much as you do us lot! And maybe take a break from waiting on news sometimes, it's not always helpful (or good for you!).

Nice one those picking up the phone.

Small silver lining is I would interpret not disclosing holding to not influence quotes from other turbine manufacturers imo suggests a bigger not smaller holding. Presume thinking is that a closer relation of Proteus and SAE would be less welcome at rivals, so if you wanted to dispel that concern and stake is small then you'd just announce. Small consolation there tho, only a logical deduction, and awful amounts or guesswork in all this.

Some clarity for project and company was needed. Big issue is if this now gets the company safe or if a lot of upside has been lost in return for only more limbo. Meygen can be a big success and needs pushing over the line, so question is if this gets us there.

Re target-setting, relevant context is offshore wind, which in 2010 had a £100/MWH target for 2020 and in the 2020 CfD was hitting sub-£50/MWH. Totally feasible for tidal also and good to see these sort of figures coming out now from OREC. Much better than the previous 'cheaper than nuclear' tag that kept getting used across the sector.

Overall think good news for the sector and getting Indonesian islands out of their diesel. Tocardo largest turbine is same size as the SAE test turbine sent to Japan. Also Hydrowing ownership of its own vessel is a substantial thing in the business model, meaning the company just represents something slightly different to SAE in what it offers. They've also done SAE installs before , I think reason to believe there's room for everyone to grow.

Feel there's a lack of political awareness going on in a lot of all this. As was pointed out I think Scottish support of tidal is a good idea and is going to grow. There is also lack of awareness, in blaming SAE for it all, of the fact that at root the fault of so much of this is with English political choices aka the Tories. SAE parliamentary evidence on viability of tidal even points out Meygen was smaller than it could have been specifically because revenue support system was supposed to be guaranteed and in place for a number of years, allowing them to optimise deployment a few years on rather than rush it through. With hindsight rushing through would have been better for company because the Tories shafted the tidal sector, just like they did for onshore wind for the last decade, like they look ready to do to solar. Can't exaggerate what a bad investment environment these people have made for the British clean energy economy.

Turbine size - agree as with all investment comms, more info would be nice but lack of it a product of the above turbulence and probably limited resources to give to it. AFAIK AR300 is - per the company - to be deployed at Raz Blanchard. Part of the issue here is on sea depth, with greater depths allowing greater rotors. Guess we just wait and see. Twitter account would be nice but SAE have got lots of abuse and therefore bad PR on it from people annoyed they're not rich already, so hard to say if good or bad keeping only good RNS news on it.

Financing - hardly comfortable but there seems some chance of greater funding thanks to Scottish political choices, multidecade guaranteed revenue we hope from BESS soon, and high energy prices from Meygen. Getting books back in shape also opens regular project finance options. Abundance too are important here and this is IMO why was doubly important that the debentures were brought back in order as the platform does have the capacity to bring in millions in ways that support SAE the company while Meygen the project is successfully expanded.

You are also living a historic market downturn, especially UK. Ukraine war obviously makes the case for renewables but economic environment is killing investment, and Tories aren't providing the sort of political certainty to calm that. Not the best time to be trying to get rich on the stock market, and if it comes good SAE and tidal will be one of few growth options.

Also was a report a some years ago that industrial harvesting of offshore wind would slow windspeeds more than originally anticipated. Recall a 10% drop in Orsted share price on the news, but as Bob says I think in the bigger scheme of things this might be one matter we don't need to worry about!

UK confirmed into recession and interest rate announcements. A few % up in those conditions when all else goes down, for a small company, is probably best you can hope for right now.

may be wrong but isn't SAE in a joint venture at Raz Blanchard? Would seem mad for another company to get it. Also the SBS position that only SAE has experience of making utility-scale turbines, and would be the Indonesia partner, just seems like Simec is the main company in this space. For same reason and even if I'd like better comms when it comes down to it Orbital and Nova do great comms, help get tidal back a CfD pot, and Atlantis get the biggest auction award. All about a slice of a growing pie. Don't need RNSs on algae partnerships or data centres unless they're going to come good. SAE repeating the new line it's responsible for 75% of all global tidal output is a good call and strong.

Imo Raz Blanchard significance is being oveelooked.. partly as Atlantis is a UK company in mostly English media, so the media is less concerned with/ attuned to development in the French space and the French media is less concerned with a UK company.

Atlantis director Drew Blaxland was at a tidal summit in Le Havre over the summer, talking specifically and positively about RB progress. Simec rep on last years Tidal Express webinars (up on youtube) specifically said RB is a site from which we hope for good things in 2022. The French (generally pro domestic energy and not shy of investing) just need to take the same step UK government did with tidal and CFDs, and if they do we have a second meygen in play.

Definite mistakes made over time and with benefit of hindsight Usk was a mess, but main thing that did for SAE was Tory government pulling the subsidy agreement for tidal in 2016, messing up all the workings around meygen. I cut the company some slack for not doing everything perfect in a crisis causes by inept Tory mismanagement

Complex I think. Nova have turbines in Shetland and won a lease for more. Also have Indonesia work and Scotland factory support from Scottish governmentt, and a power purchase agreement in Canada (and maybe Wales). Many things look good for them but their turbines are only 200kw so they would have to install many many turbines to get Meygen kind of output. You are right i think a partnership was mentioned but has since gone quiet. A mystery. Nova also noticeable as the only major Scottish manufacturer not to win a CfD , so things do look good for the company but not great info out there.

Like Wenglishboy says there are now new components available that are meant to make the AR1500 yaw mechanism more efficient. Its obviously in Atlantis' interests to upgrade while turbines out of the water, but retrofitting might not be totally straightforward and also creates reliance on separate supply chains at a time when they are very stretched everywhere.

AIM sentiment is the opposite of what SAE needs, and what should be expected from any new technology when the government pulls the rug out from under a new industry (as it did with tidal soon after Meygen launch). Investors should be happy that high energy prices (first good luck at Atlantis for a while) means two turbines will for now create revenue of multiple turbines. Company took money from GHR sale, availability of a £2m loan from SIMEC also good news, and due to previous issues we know company slimmed down operations probably in a way intended to make sure the books balance for as long as possible and through all near term obligations.

Meygen should be seen as a pilot project for a new industry and tech that has in general given good performance. We know Atlantis want to move from ballast-weighted turbines to monopiles, we know there are few installations vessels of the type required and that hiring them is on a per-day basis very high cost, we know that new turbines will be different design to old ones, and we know that the ideal scenario is not to get 2 more turbines in ASAP but ultimately 100 in the medium term. Feels like with all these considerations are many reasons that 4 aren't in the water right now, even if it would be nice.

As for CFD - it is for sure the main point of interest. Orbital do a great job on many fronts but have only ever made two turbines. It would take 8 Nova turbines to match output of one AR1500. It's been a choppy ride but getting out/being out this close to a CFD seems odd to me, all the more so for those who have already taken a lot of rough luck over previous years. Impossible to rule out bad luck, but also fair to say no company seems more likely to benefit from the CFD than Atlantis.