Musings on a deal24 Mar 2019 20:51
I have been wrestling with this one since Friday. I don't want to overreact / appear to be hysterical re: something that might not happen, but at the same time I think it would be such a devastatingly ill-judged decision that it would be wise to talk about it in advance in the hope that IF this was about to happen, PERHAPS it could be averted before it happens.
INFA's new company address is the same as Fairfields and Gazprom (UK) Ltd, one of Fairfields clients.
Let's talk purely theoretically. A big IF can be placed before everything that follows ...
Suppose Gazprom put in the late (and most lucrative) bid to be Project Finance partner "It's all going East". JW was for it. GL was against and he left. All guess work might be miles off).
Gazprom carry out extensive due diligence - more than the others - and probably now know everything there is to know about Islandmagee, the project, the geology, the people, the risks. Everything.
Then this news about address change comes out first. Maybe JW is asking for our opinion. I think we should give it to him. I believe most of the significant shareholders of INFA are, like me, patriotic Brits, who are both trying to make a few quid, while improving our national gas energy security, which without Rough, is precarious. It is one small part of a plan to reduce the threat Russia poses to our security of supply and price. Another is renewed Gas exploration activity in North Sea, LNG imports and diversification into Wind etc.
I'd rather be called nuts and be wrong, than not say anything and be right. I urge all significant shareholders McAdder, DAwski, Setanta, Peter Wale etc to contact JW informally with a simple statement "We do not support this". He'll know what it means. Let him know that if he does this, we will not back him. We've removed one board, we can remove another.
The fundamental problem with getting into bed with Gazprom is that they are a tool (and occasionally, a weapon) of the Putin regime. And we have been in an unconventional, non-linear, hybrid war with the Putin regime for several years now. We largely use economic sanctions, but they use all and any channels at their disposal, including corporate transactions.
Putin's leverage over Europe and the UK is Gas supply.
Gazprom (i.e. Putin's) interests re Islandmagee are diametrically opposite to the people of the UK, patriotic INFA shareholders, the DUP, the Tory party. Assuming their terms were the best, you have to ask 'Why were they so much better'. Because the value for them is not commercial, it's strategic and geo-political. It's ensuring they maintain their leverage over us. However they're involved, IF they were to be involved, it would make absolute logical sense from their perspective for the project to not be delivered or at least delayed as long as possible. I would surmise it will become mired in legal issues and will rot.
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