The trouble with RKH5 Feb 2021 23:46
I have been in this share on/off for over 12 years now. The main problem with RKH has always been that it is a retail buyer share - Back in the days of the move towards £5.40 it was all the hype, all over the news, during an oil price spike. Nobody cares about oil anymore, in fact it's the opposite.
Ever since those days, We have been plagued by shorts. They saw we were too high for such an early stage in the exploration to production cycle, which was probably correct. Then of course the oil price declined and we ended up with PMO as a partner (which if you look at the details at the time, it was an OK deal ) in a declining oil price environment.
As an extra kick in the pants, our BOD decided it would be a good idea to buy MOG which was potentially the worst mistake they could have ever made (withstanding the outstanding arbitration outcome). They also farmed in to the Egyptian Assets that were pretty useless, as the Egyptians aren't too worried about making sure they pay their bills on time (surprise?) . RKH ended up selling the Egypt assets for a bit more than bought and called it a success because they got shares in a new company (that were pretty immediately sold after the next positive result). Without much realisation about all the costs already spent.
There was also the announcement that actually, PMO can't meet the deal that RKH signed up to. How that is even possible without RKH suing PMO in to the ground and getting the agreed percentage stakes back is beyond me, but our BOD bent over and just accepted that they didn't need to meet the original agreement !?!? How this happened still puzzles me, as any competent board would have challenged this much more aggressively.
Now we have Harbour taking over PMO (Good f** riddance) so maybe there is a chance, but they are coy with us so far. I personally don't think the Navitas deal will actually take place anymore, as soon as Harbour is officially on board. That deal was a joke and took even more from RKH because PMO was useless. It was essentially RKH giving even more % away, after being screwed by PMO already because they were incompetent as there was no other option.
In my view (If we don't just get taken out completely on the cheap) Harbour will drop Navitas and reclaim their original percentage of SL, then they will hold RKH over a barrel and try to punish the BOD because they know they are weak, and because they know they are running out of cash.
I wouldn't be surprised to see RKH ending up with a 10-20% full carry of SL, with Harbour owning 80-90%.
That being said, Even 10% of a 80kbpd asset is many multiples of todays share price.
The OM arbitration is the only thing that can change this dynamic, but it may come too late as we everyone knows how good lawyers and bureaucrats are at stalling.
For full disclosure, I am in RKH heavily at an average ~14p for ~450k shares. I want this company to succeed as much as any other long term holder.