Back to lithium and the market14 Mar 2023 13:13
Lithium price we all know is coming down at fast pace, I am watching it every day to look for opportunities to buy in cheap Lithium shares..
But imv the trend on Lithium price, is much more complex than a simple offer/demand dynamic.
For start we have a situation where Xi Jinping China President, has recently met with the bosses of CATL the world biggest battery maker.
This has happened at the same time when CATL decided to drastically reduce battery prices.....
In my view not just CATL want to keep or gain world market shares, but also China with its large share of Lithium production, is trying to keep or increase its world market and hegemony on this metal supply.
The thing is that with the backing of China Communist Party, in order to achieve this objective they may be going all the way to sell battery grade lithium at a loss, to stop Western countries developing their industries.
Something is already happening on the political front, whereas Western car manufactures will not be allowed to use or adopt Chinese product and technologies.
The trade war is dividing the world for political reasons and Atlantic is on the Western side, with a western partner (PLL) and in a Western stile democratic country been Ghana. Is also likely that current lithium price difference between China and the Western market will widen.
Given the current business mode set up for Atlantic Lithium I am expecting that the remaining (lets say 100000/t net SC6% )production, will be sold to Western company maybe European.
I can not see though Ghana been able to develop their industries in a vertical manner, whereas they will start also to refine the Spodumene and produce battery for the automaker industry....that is not going to happen imv.
Ghana is and always will be a mining commodities producing country.
Going back to the Chinese war on Lithium price, the Chinese have a problem here because some half of the battery grade lithium they produce, needs western spodumene mostly coming from Australia. So although they can reduce prices or subsidise Chinese spodumene producers, they will have to pay the full price of Western market for the SC6% they need.
This is why companies like Ganfeng are aggressively looking outside China for sources of Spodumene.
Watching closely when the Lithium price descent will start to slow down, for any sign of buy opportunities.