Member Info for LuckyLuciano

Interesting reaction, US Retail Sales comes out well below forecast and the USD goes up?
As to be a relief mini rally, after a dreadful week. Incidentally USD Index is playing with support at 100.680 day.
Next week should be interesting

My apologies for the off topic on (gold chart).

Hi mrtibbles
Thanks for the link but...no thanks.
Your link seems to have "org" extension and I wonder who is paying the bill of this organization.
Freedom of speech is a very much grey area, hopefully will never be regulated.
I wouldn't like that even a simple personal opinion, get policed by someone that as the means to prove differently, based on past information. Noting would change and the world would become more and more polarised by economic interest.
I do agree though, that the owners of social medias and those whom facilitate similar platforms, would take some responsibility for the negative consequences their platforms cause, to the lives of some individuals.

Just imagine what some bad news from banks earnings, would do to the USD and POG.....
Not that I am predicting that though and imo little retracing is more likely, but just look at the USD index graph.
https://www.investing.com/currencies/us-dollar-index-streaming-chart
Steep drop since easing of inflation and possible pause of rate rise, the speed of the drop imply a stop down to the 90s.
Add to that that now buying of physical gold is much higher wiouth mentioning the creation of a new gold pegged currency and you can excuse if some talk about gold price at $3000.
In my crazy Fib guestimate I get 2250 first resistance, if we go past all time high...that is.

agree rylidan.
obviously POG allowing, this can move higher and faster.
If by any chance the market will start to sense that POG will consolidate at higher prices for longer, PAF imo will be one of the faster upward mover among gold miners. Its relative low debit, good management and high reserve/resources to market cap ratio among the other point for a rerate here...
Am I reading this correct?
https://www.panafricanresources.com/operations-at-a-glance-2/mineral-resource-mineral-reserve-2/
Unheard more than 20 M/oz indicated resources, 3.7 M/oz measured ???? Crazy

mrtibbles
while we are on this conversation I would add.
What happened to all the millions if not billions the Tory where awarding to ghost covid related companies, in 2020 and what happened to BBC coverage on that.
If they at least would collect taxes only via VAT and not personal income, it would be a fearer society, where more money you have to spend and more you pay taxes.
More over that is when they could control and effectively implement policies. No real need to making many laws really, just put up or down a VAT on items that you want to promote or prohibit and the Gov. job is down....but then again can you imagine how many Ministers would be queuing at the unemployment office?

..have to say, although market are close today and we could have a completely different reaction comes tomorrow.....but look at what effect it has had a little rise in USD index on POG...now futures down almost 1%..
Interesting to see if this move is design to catch out stops, or is a more meaningful move downward...
I believe is more the second option.

Yes a pull back definitely on the card.
With no economic indicator till Wednesday, looks like market is picking up where it left on last Thursday....one or more Fed rate rise expectations .
I am just trying to figure out when POG $2000 level (ish) resistance will become support. For a mid long term investment view on miners, imv valuations have reached high levels if POG remain below the $2000 and yet many catalyst on macros are pushing for much higher POG... Best trade with caution right now.

...indeed as I am writing, USD index just shot up past 102, meaning that for gold price is not going to be so straight forward for a rise in short terms...
IMO POG needs more of changes in the geopolitics economies, than simply a correlation between USD, rates and the Fed,
unless bond yields don't get back down to very low levels (need a new QE..)

Thanks for the link.
I find it difficult to understand the validity of below statement from Proactiveinvestors article, but overall I agree that gold has many positive catalyst coming its way...Would be interesting to figure out which single catalyst can greatly affect POG.
Surely the BRICS countries possible creation of a new currency pegged to gold price should be one to note.
But on Proactiveinvestors article when it says:
As yields on bonds decrease and interest rates rise, the gold price is also likely to rise, as the dollar purchasing power and consumer standard of living decrease.
=============
Now normally when Fed. rate rises also bonds yields rises (not decrease). But i am guessing the writer is assuming that we are going to get CPI rising with the Fed. pausing rate rises and a bond yield decreasing.....Well is all to be seen if is going to happen and not so straight forward. Who is going to buy US debit if yields are coming down, and worst if also U$D value is coming down?

Sure hopefully tomorrow a leg up opening price and new high for current uptrend.
POG is looking good no retracing and a consolidation above $2010 will set for new record high.
If numbers are bad for ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar) on Wednesday and Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday
IMO a new record high is sure thig.
Meanwhile down the line still the ghost of more bank troubles....
https://www.investing.com/analysis/as-investors-look-past-banking-crisis-one-regional-bank-signals-more-bad-news-200636882

https://www.investing.com/analysis/as-investors-look-past-banking-crisis-one-regional-bank-signals-more-bad-news-200636882

Shame you can't read the link from Reuters I have posted....very eye opening...
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinese-lithium-producers-set-price-floor-demand-evaporates-sources-2023-03-31/

....and yet most of the Lithium mining stock prices are down.
Who knows how much lower they would be, if wasn't for that doggy attempted take over of Liontown from Pilbara of recent...
I don't know....I have mixed feelings, lithium price in China keeps dropping according to this market..
https://www.investing.com/commodities/lithium-carbonate-99-min-china-futures
Indeed there are many contract strike prices out there, making it a bit of a lottery to forecast projects profitability.
One thing is for sure, and that is one as to be very convinced and right, that there will be LCE shortage in 2/3 years time to invest in Lithium miners wanna be right now.
Conversely Li price has drop so much and recently the drop is accelerating, usually a precursor for a rebound upwards.
IMO lithium stocks have become a trading opportunity rather than investment long terms...

Indeed before the British Empire was created, few royal navy vessels at the time use to wait offshore Britain, for the Spanish conquistadores to come back from South Americas, with ships full of gold, for then attaching and stealing all the gold lol.
The pirates of them days...lol
I suppose with that money they managed to build their own ships and go to get the gold abroad, for them self....lol

For those invested in banks it only make sense.....
Pan African Resources possibly the best value UK miner out there ATM.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinese-lithium-producers-set-price-floor-demand-evaporates-sources-2023-03-31/
https://electrek.co/2023/04/01/ice-car-values-plummet-in-china-and-it-is-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine/#:~:text=A%20looming%20crisis%20is%20brewing,due%20to%20incoming%20emissions%20rules.
https://www.arenaev.com/11600_byd_seagull_launches_on_april_18_with_305_km_sodiumion_battery-news-1624.php

..have a feeling $2000/oz level is becoming a new floor for POG.
Toady bad U.S. JOLTs Job Openings is important because this data was one of the last bullish data supporting a strong USD imo....
Finger crossed for tomorrow U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Thursday U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
Create Alert.
But imv today number are already setting POG for new hights..

lol
forgot to add link of graph that I had painstakingly created....
Anyhow do your own graph....lol
It was interesting to see market reactions after OPEC oil production cut over the weekend.
Is good to see initial rise of USD and drop of POG reversing....The disconnect here is oil price rising together with USD, mainly because both are to a certain extent manipulated prices...Oil more than UDS .
I am reading that China buying of US debit is at the lowers level for 12 years....who is going to finance USA debit? The Arabs are out, China is winding down, and recently even Total the French oil giant accepted payments in Yuan.

For gold price we are definitely at a cross road, when it comes to psychology of numbers in trading and price action.
Possible posted before but imo is worth as much as many other fundamentals arguments, including the $ and rate rise (or not). This especially because POO is at such critical price level , been the $1000 and now the $2000 mark.
Below is a self explanatory graph of POG. After having gone trough the $2000 few times and including the fact that this consolidation, has matured in a similar time frame of when it went past $1000, imo is now time for gold price to see $2000 as support and move much higher ....
Note also that this historic price movement ($1000 in 2009) and $2000 this time, are occurring at the begin of dramatic change of monetary policies from the Fed....