RE: over 6 months24 Apr 2023 15:36
Hi
Have been reading many comments and valuation on HUM.
I am invested in PAF and for comparison before deciding to buy HUM, I was trying to compare the two...
Looking at the balance sheet, Hum has much bigger debit than PAF, I have considered only Property, Plants and Equipment together with current assets and subtracted total liabilities and from last data available PAF come up at $280 millions versus HUM at $20 millions. These are very rough calculations just to make a sense of market cap difference.
What it means is that (280-20=260) PAF market cap is valued $260 millions or some £200 millions more than HUM.
Has PAF MC is £350-200= £150 should be the fair MC valuation comparison of HUM, which is roughly double today sp.
Where I am stuck is on the disproportional amount of reserves that PAF has compared to HUM, and the fact that PAF is already achieving 200k/oz production whereas HUM has to incur much higher costs during ramp-up till and of this year, when they will be reaching commercial rate production...
By the way a PE multiple of 4 for HUM, can be considered on Net Profit and not EBITDA, in which case $70millions would become maybe £30 millions and x 4 would make a sp of 20p . Is likely though that the market would grant a slightly higher PE ratio, if POG keeps up, in which case would also be good for bottom line Net Profit.