Member Info for Longish

According to BBC, the pension scheme is in surplus but those coming up to retirement will only be guarenteed 90%. Have they lost 10% or get it later when the dust settles?

https://www.ft.com/content/8095f040-dee4-11e9-b112-9624ec9edc59

I originally bought at £31.98. In and out all the way down. Just a gamble now

See how the £/$ moves... Div seems to be propping the price up more than IMB

Interesting article Fleccy.
If I dont get div income, I drawdown capital.. so I need SP growth if the div is cut otherwsise I stay in cash.

'I am starting to think Ofcom needs to start being regulated itself'

...I guess it is regulated through compliance with WTO rules, GATT, BEREC etc. Trump is negotiating the rules on trade whilst the likes of BEREC are enforcing anti trust on open architecture models and developments...google fines etc. We are stuck in the middle...
BT has negotiated a line in the sand which protects its commitments to stakeholders including some investors need for dividend income. Once governments decide how much consumers and citizens are collectively entitled to within their respective 'sovereign' economies and territories, network operators can plan, match national supply and demand. In the meantime new entrants, strategic partnerships nibble away at the base, target towns and cities etc.

Imo, the iterim div will stand but the final could be cut and eg match Vods glide path

..'assuring that the capital loss will be far far greater then all the the accumulated dividends'

The market is doing the same across alot of blue chip shares in the last 2 years. Generally driven by low interest rates and the need for income imo. Could muse that its all part of a 'soft landing' as indexes are not tracking down as much. If so, there is still some downside as interest rates stay lower for longer eg draghi may provide more stimulus later this week...

Must admit I missed the offset with bonds currently in bubble territory and would have covered those equity capital losses....

'Sky rockets'
...or like a rocket being wheeled out of the hanger at 0.05 mph with 2 miles to the launch pad??

...maybe a man walking in front carrying a red flag

I am already half way round the world on mine....just in time to clear the credit card!!

I am all for social inclusion for over 60's. But these proposals make that increasingly likely to be in the queue at the unemployment office...and means tested so that if you own your house or saved hard all your working life, you will be socially and economically isolated at the end of that process.

This whole Brexit shambles gets nominal sovereignty away from EU for sure .....but to sell our pension interests to overseas industry and governments???

The EU has a big problem ahead ...paying for welfare benefits if they stop cheap money. But the FED is likely to throw more cheap money into the mix this month.

With such huge momentum in the capital markets anchored to cheap money, why is the UK throwing its ageing population under a bus???

Would be a major blow to lifetime financial planning to change a marathon into a sprint with 2 - 5 years to go... add a bear market or recession and a whole generation will wish they voted to remain in the EU welfare system or fought harder for a compensating Brexit settlement. Financial planning aside, there are postcodes where male life expectancy is less than 75.

Anyone investing for their pension should be interested in Paul Lewis's article in 'The Weekend FT' which has a handy summary of Duncan Smiths think tank proposal on state pensions (the centre for social justice).

Key points in the glide path look like this...
Born after Apr 6 1955...new state pension age 66-67
Born after Jul 6 1957...new state pension age 70-71
Born after April 6 1960...new state pension age 75.

According to the OECD, the EU pension average of salary is 62% and the UK is currently 26%...

I guess it wont happen so quickly but prorogation etc who knows? The trade might be some form of fiscal policy, increase tax/ national insurance in line with EU, reduce pension tax relief...?

Duncan was born in 1954 and wouldnt be impacted personally ;-)

'Carrots'
A major positive for Brexit is funny shaped carrots. Not dog shaped carrots, of course, because the year of the dog is not until 2030 and could get in the way of any agreement. And not just donkey power. Think ....'carrot sticks with houmous or taramosolata'....

Hi Gerry,
'Timeframes'
Yes my portfolio is the same kind of net negative over those timeframes.. .. even with divs reinvested...so now just spending them

Hi Faultsman
Might have been me in a post replying to Velo entitled 're: before moving on from Q1'

'page 14 of this weekends 'FTWeekend'. That's my source for the Jansen BoJo story. No link unfortunately..'

'Otherwise why would it cause him to let off steam'
Yes the payoffs were much bigger than they are today.
Having said that, Baronness Altmann (LoL) was crowing she had cashed in a few of her final salary schemes and got similarly inflated values because interest rates were so low. I think thats what has caused the mess we have today - bonds and equities going up together and interest rates going down and a slow grinding bear market correction to engineer a 'soft landing'?

'For non manufacturing companies they should use:'

Hi Fleccy, you are probably right. But BT manufactures and bills traffic events and bundles LoL

'So, did BT forgo topping up the shortfall of all those early retirees? '

I guess the big difference was back then, interest rates were so much higher. As an example of how to create a huge deficit take the following example:

Pension £20k per annum in perpetuity...
Interest rate 10%. Fund value required = £20k/.1 = £200k
Interest rate 5%. Fund value required = £20k/.05= £400k
Interest rate 1%. Fund value required = £20k/.01 = £2m
Interest rate .5%. Fund value required = £20k/.005 = £4m

Z Score
I found a few references on the web. This one says the score is currently 0.94 and includes the calculations and financial data to 31 March 2019.
As I mentioned in an earlier post, I don't think the historic total asset cost is really relevant as the cash has been spent. The next generation cost is lower...all you can eat economics etc
So could argue it is a bit unfair to make comparisons or draw firm conclusions based on total asset cost.
There are pros and cons and I think it is fair to say that the trend is negative YoY. This is probably why the 300 buildings closure, withdrawal from Spain, Ireland and Latin America is now being pursued to reduce that total asset cost and avoiding any general write down to fair value based on regulatory economic and long run incremental network costs.
https://www.gurufocus.com/term/zscore/BT/Altman-Z-Score/BT-Group-PLC

On a separate point, my prorogued stop loss has me sitting on the benches ~#@~~@! Currently my BT cash is sitting in a div index tracker and if I get a red day, will buy back in... I will be spending my BT divs on holiday shortly so I don't feel too bad net net . However, in case I don't see you.... good afternoon, good evening and good night!!

Thank you Newbie :-)