Member Info for Longish

I haven't seen mine yet with HL. TBH, I forgot completely about it.
What VOD giveth, the market taketh away, except this div is being spent on holiday, not invested woohoo!

..and the shorters. They will close at end of the day imo. I wont be selling to them though

Agree with Dodger. Results were steady. Whole market is down. Only question for me still lurking is Capex v Div. I think interim div will be safe and Aug 2020 final rebased based on current course and speed....

Hi mehmehmeh,
From an earlier post. Barclays said:-

"Adding Liberty Global (Germany/CEE) adds c€1.7bn to FY21e EBITDA, c€200m to FCF, +€18.4bn to net debt, with €500m+ of synergies inside 5 years boosting FCF"

"Removing NZ reduces EBITDA c€300m, and net debt c€2bn. With other minor changes the net impact is to increase FY21e EBITDA +7% (€15.7bn), EPS +12% (11.0p), FCF +4% (€5.87bn) and net debt (+€16bn)."

I think the SP will do ok if the outlook is maintained and no new surprises. Ideally it will be H1 before div rebase and that declared in next years final not December 2019 interim?

Very odd pricing today. Maybe 'fat bot finger' lol

Hi Dan,

No advice intended but looking at the candles, we had a Bearish Harami today, a 2 day pattern occurring after an upswing, second candle closes above previous days open, a bearish reversal signal...

So either MMs shaking out nervous holders and then SP upwards or a retrace to 140s? I know, absolutely no help at all LoL

Hi Velo,
I was going to mention that Marubozu candlestick earlier as it wouldn't go amiss at Cape Canaveral. I picked up on the same trend (3 below) in a conversation with Dan last week where we concluded all VOD bears have bald heads. However, todays Marubozu suggests VOD bulls very definitely also have bald heads :-)

Crikey, I might buy some more next week just to sell on, but thats how I got caught with too many VOD in the 1st place. Maybe its a day trade all next week and the longs stay in the bottom draw.
Thanks Velo, appreciate your insights.
GLA and good night!!

Hi AL75,
Agree it is UK government approved and starting with the EU regulatory framework Act 2002, the pressure for regulatory convergence led the EC and the UK to form OFCOM with a statutory duty under the UK Communications Act 2003.
Found this link which is an easier read and highlights that dividing lines don’t truly exist – the EU is a fundamental part of the UK government.... until, of course, we Brexit!!

My point still is that openreach might go the same way as VOD towers under the same pressures..

https://thefrogsalittlehot.wordpress.com/2014/12/11/oftel-ofcom-and-bt/

Hi Dan
'Nick got 99% support '

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Yes he did. As you say he may be greedy and he didn't get as much support for his LTIP. Some of the shareholders at the AGM told him why....also we remember the UK Director selling at 185 just before thee drop and now he is getting the new LTIP. I guess he was rewarded for the UK turnaround and now he is being rewarded to keep it that way..thats the way the system works and if the SP recovers plus divs, then I wont be complaining

Yes please, £1.50 on Monday. Confucius he say 'always expect the unexpected'. Another 10% would also be fine with me

Longtime, yes it is. It was a UK institution when it was OFTEL. It became an EU institution regulating the UK when it became OFCOM. My point is that all the Brexit stuff is mainly about physical movement of goods in the EU market while telecom services are generally agreed under WTO. So any competition/ anti trust issues with VOD in EU (and IPOs etc) might be matched by equivalent consideration by an EU institution regulating the UK.

To be honest, I have no idea how Boris sees telecoms and how he figures the deals going on at the moment but he has been profiling superfast broadband in his maiden speech..

Hi Dan, yes good day and a relief that Nick and team can coordinate a complex 'transformation' with news delivery etc. Someone else said in an earlier post the last thing you need is someone new coming in who doesn't understand the operational inter dependencies to deliver the EBITDA/FCF. NR will have to prove himself to the new Chairman and H2 needs to be on track, otherwise it looks like a return to a progressive dividend, which is what I want some certainty on too.

Hi Velo,
OFCOM is an EU institution and EU telecoms working under WTO rules so Brexit in theory shouldnt impact too much. That said, I can imagine BTs version of the Tower is Openreach. Openreach managed to stay in the Group under the principle of equivalence, which is one step away from an IPO and could theoretically be a reciprocal arrangement with EU on competition grounds etc , imo...

Good day and the most relaxed I have been since snowballing down from a small initial buy at 225

GLA next week. Liberty assets physically transfer to VOD next week so no doubt stuff is still unwinding..

Good news...

'Having secured network sharing agreements in several key markets, Vodafone Group Plc ("Vodafone") announces today that it is proceeding with plans to monetise a substantial proportion of its European tower infrastructure during the next 18 months, including the previously announced intention to combine Vodafone Italy's passive tower infrastructure with Inwit S.p.A. '

Highlights
· European tower infrastructure to be legally separated into a new organisation (referred to as "TowerCo") which will be operational by May 2020, with a dedicated management team
- Europe's largest towers portfolio, comprising 61,700 towers in 10 markets with potential proportionate EBITDA of around €900 million
· Preparations underway for a variety of monetisation alternatives, to be executed during the next 18 months (depending on market conditions), including a potential IPO of TowerCo
· Highlights the significant value embedded in Vodafone's tower infrastructure
· Continuation of active and passive network sharing strategy
- Unlocking industrial benefits, including substantial opex and capex savings and accelerating the roll out of 5G
· Proceeds will be used to reduce Group debt

https://www.sharecast.com/news/Company-Announcement-General/VODAFONE-TO-CREATE-EUROPE-S-LARGEST-TOWER-COMPANY--dl29351326.html

Gerry557, TLWilliams., RoyALMail et al,
While 'still sluggish global growth', emerging market growth is projected to be slightly better than advanced economies over the next 12 months or so. I like VODs exposure to emerging markets (Vodacom, Turkey etc) and makes it a easy long term hold for me.

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2019/07/18/WEOupdateJuly2019?cid=em-COM-123-39218

Hi pipedreamer, thanks.

I had a think and I see a corridor rising 140 to 145 by mid october. I guess it all comes down to q1 reporting and belief in the h2 uptick. Next week the liberty assets transfer over to Vod so the institutional box tickers are likely to look at VOD more positively. Of course brexit is end of October so anything could happen then...

Hi pipedreamer, thanks.

I had a think and I see a corridor rising 140 to 145 by mid october. I guess it all comes down to q1 reporting and belief in the h2 uptick. Next week the liberty assets transfer over to Vod so the institutional box tickers are likely to look at VOD more positively. Of course brexit is end of October so anything could happen then...

You mean elliott wave 3 and a rise? I have been reading a paper downloaded from the link below but not structured it for Vodafone

https://www.elliottwave.com/Free-Reports/Introduction-to-the-Wave-Principle

'Interesting that the trading pattern this week seems to me to be tracking the upper trendline (see link) which suggests c131+ at 23 July,'
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Back on 12 July the trendline suggested the SP today would be c131. Lucky guess? ..gave me the confidence to hold through the dip!!