Member Info for Longish

Hi Newbie642,
'in today’s age everything being electronic 1630 would be 1630'
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Well, if they use something similar for the backstop, we should be home and dry on brexit...might take years to determine the tariff on the movement of goods across the border ..LoL

Velo,
"Morning Star Doji? Tomorrow's candlestick"?
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In the end we got a 'Dragonfly Doji'....a strongly bullish candle and extremely bullish if it occurs at support (181.8).
Of course only one day left before we go ex div, so must have looked like a bargain today.
Volumes up significantly to 335m compared to 20 day moving average 212m. Fridays sellers (volume 413m) buying back in I guess

Hi Newbie642
I am no expert either but I believe they relate to the closing auction and determining the closing price.
This link is a starting point in understanding what goes on in the main UK market systems...
http://www.theel1tetrader.com/2013/01/lse-closing-auction-how-it-works.html

Thank you Velo. No worries, I haven't been day trading with candles but I have been monitoring what candles tell me about price behaviour relative to other metrics like fast stochastic, momentum, macd, volume and Bollinger bands. I am sure an algo does it more efficiently and consistently than me over the course of a day with more measures than I can point and click in a minute...but immersing yourself in the data builds insight and new understanding usually emerges ie research..

In this market, its seems to be about going down fighting or going into cash. Very hard to make any money, more like slowing down the process of losing money.

I think you are right about the bear trend continuing as all markets are generally down and HSI down more than 2% as I write. Will be interesting to see how the SP behaves ex div. 5% will be in the bag so to speak

LoL. A blissfull bullish haze. Wake me up when it is all over!

Hi Velo,
Watching candles throughout the day is like watching clouds form. I thought we were going to finish with a tombstone Doji earlier this afternoon but now, a better than average white candle tomorrow and we complete a 3 day pattern, Morning Star Doji....a strong bullish reversal signal? Do you think so? Tomorrows candle needs to push up at least 1/2 way into last Fridays candle....and of course, Wednesday is the day before going ex div 10.8p!

Hi Velo,
' using candlesticks for short range forecasting I'm expecting the SP to behave bearishly tomorrow'
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Correct so far. I guess depends where the SP opens, but right now (9.45) it looks like a hammer and a bullish reversal. I guess this is where stochastic, momentum and macd all come into play for day traders

Interesting to watch how the price moves vs VOD. VOD with all the good news baked in and BT on a promise. At the moment this weeks div prospect has it but not by much

VOD has a defensive quality when the whole market moves down. We have seen this a few times over the year. H1 next and ex div Nov. Will buy on any dip.

VOD now needs to get on with the execution in Germany as general competition and investment now hotting up
https://www.marketscreener.com/news/Two-German-fibre-groups-for-sale-buyer-could-combine-them-sources--28997479/

...typo...invested

Hi Avrohom,
I guess its the fight or flight instinct. I have held BT at 185 in 2003 (..I think). The crash in 2009 took it to c70 and back to 185 c26 months later.
I missed the big dropss as many times as I caught the bounces so staying unvested this time and trade any lucky opportunities.

If the central banks et al cant engineer a soft landing for the whole economy, we get a div in the meantime. If they can, we will have a slow SP recovery with div (rebased .... ) imo. BT will still be trading either way in 5 years time. We may also get some of VODs sentiment if the accelerated fibre revenues come to BT...
GLA this week

Hi Velo, .. page 14 of this weekends 'FTWeekend'. That's my source for the Jansen BoJo story. No link unfortunately..

The story certainly timed well with Brexit negotiations. On a VOD post, I noted the EU regulatory framework Act 2002 led the EC and the UK to form OFCOM with a statutory duty under the UK Communications Act 2003 and highlighted the EU is a fundamental part of the UK government...until Brexit? And VOD will invest in EU citizens across Germany and Eastern Europe under the Liberty deal, whilst less than 8% of UK 'citizens' in UK homes can connect to a full fibre line????

No wonder BoJo is ensconced in a war room bunker under Admiralty House concerned with equal economic rights as EU citizens to next century communications access. The EC/UK anti trust review has to address this asymmetry in the regulatory frameworks and (BT's) 'market' mispricing. The conditions are ripe for some action sooner rather than later otherwise BoJo wouldn't be hanging his hat on fibre in his inaugural PM speech and PJ in Downing Street on Friday?

Hi Velo,
'Therefore the broker's analysts are unlikely to issue a bumper growth notice as the evidence points to continuing decline.'
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As in an earlier post, if PJ gets asked by BoJo to accelerate full fibre roll out, that translates to an accelerated revenue and cash contribution plan, more than doubling what is currently being forecast. We should hear pretty quickly if BoJo wants the 'incumbent' to lead on this. Central banks are keeping interest rates lower for longer to encourage these fiscal initiatives irrespective of the politics. The future looks brighter...?!

Hi Fleccy, I agree. My only caveat is that 50% of my income is from 'the stock market' ...half divs and half capital drawdown. So when divs in particular are rebased, my incentive is to offset with a trading capital gain as I need income now.

Apparently PJ was with Boris yesterday to present a full fibre broadband plan nationwide by 2025.

BT estimates the total industry cost is c£30Bn and requires 30k additional workers to replace copper lines with fibre and deliver 'gigabit speed' broadband.

BT has only committed to connect 4m homes to full fibre with a longer term target of 15m by the middle of next decade. Doubling that to 32m within 6 years requires an agreement with Ofcom on what rate of return BT can receive in its investment, a debate known as the 'fair bet'.

PJ said it was now a national mission and BT was well placed to achieve the governments goal.

A ramp up in fibre spending will increase pressure on the div versus capex etc...

Hi Velo, thank you for your (Euclidian) thoughts. It makes sense that numbers should behave within these bounds and have the 'nuanced' properties of mathematics over time. I think this may be especially true for a regulated industry where regulatory and spectrum harmonisation seek principles of symmetry, equivalence and convergence toward a single reference point. The EU will seek to monetise QE/QT in the real economy through fiscal policy measures such as high speed broadband availability. Enter stage left BoJo and stage right Mdm Lagarde (lawyer)…

So golden ratio (Euclid), fractal (Mandelbrot), space time manifold joining 2 points over time (Minkowski)...190 on Monday :-) and onward and upwards please!!

Of course the journey is not a straight line. Complex relationships with interest groups mean Regulators cant adopt welfare maximising policies because chaotic economies are inherently unknowable

Well done Fleccy. I topped up £12k at 185.3331

Hi Velo, thanks for all this analysis. You have been working hard whilst juggling, ice cream, cups of tea in a very hot location somewhere.. LoL
'Need a bright idea to get FCF back on track - but what? It's primarily made up of Depreciation & Amortization and a variety of tax breaks.
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The thing about depreciation and amortization is it relates to cash that has already been spent in previous years. Rather than recognise all the cost up front in one go, it is depreciated/ amortized over many years ie matched with the revenue and costs of each incremental trading year that uses these assets. A look at the investor relations site and the LRIC model gives these depreciation categories (see below). As you can see, BTs infrastructure is substantially paid for. Yes there are additional build, replacement, upgrade cash costs etc but these are very small compared to the accumulated cash spend to date. With the move to 5G and flatter IP networks etc, there is an argument for just writing down all the 'fat' legacy depreciation costs on legacy assets quickly as it may no longer be relevant to match legacy depreciation costs with next generation flatter lower cost networks. Essentially that means that the cash flows will improve as real incremental network cash costs reduce. There is of course an agreed BT BB roll out which requires capex and now BoJo is looking to accelerate roll out from market participants. This may trigger strategic partnerships, joint ventures or other strucural activies to ensure the delivery.
Opex, Non pay, Depreciation, Duct, KLOM Clone
Opex, Non pay, Depreciation, Local Exchanges: Digital, LE AXE10, KLOM Clone
Opex, Non pay, Depreciation, Local Exchanges: Digital, LE Sys X, KLOM Clone
Opex, Non pay, Depreciation, Grant Funded Assets
Opex, Non pay, Depreciation, Access: Fibre & Radio
Opex, Non pay, Depreciation, Access: Fibre & Radio
Opex, Non pay, Depreciation, Access: Copper, Local Line Dropwire and NTE
Opex, Non pay, Depreciation, Access: Copper
Opex, Non pay, Depreciation, Local Exchanges: Digital
Opex, Non pay, Depreciation, Main Exchanges, ASU
Opex, Non pay, Depreciation, Main Exchanges
Opex, NP, Depreciation, Core Trans: Cable & Other, Core Trans cable
Opex, Non pay, Depreciation, Core Xmn:Duct
Opex, Non pay, Depreciation, Intelligent networks
Opex, Non Pay, Depreciation, Transmission Equipment, PDH
Opex, Non pay, Depreciation, Transmission Equipment, SDH
Opex, Non pay, Depreciation, Transmission Equipment, ATM
Opex, Non pay, Depreciation, Transmission Equipment
Opex, Non pay, Depreciation, Accommodation Plant (NetWork)
Opex, Non pay, Depreciation, Network Power
Opex, Non pay, Depreciation, Capital Misc, ADSL
Opex, Non pay, Depreciation, Capital Misc, Loc Exch Testing
Opex, Non pay, Depreciation, Capital Misc, Intntl PC&Per Eq Con
Opex, Non pay, Depreciation, Capital Misc
Opex, Non pay, Depreciation, Other Non-Voice Plant
Opex, Non pay, Depreciation, Othe

Hi Velo
I would think an up front capex spend versus cost savings throughout the year could be part of Q1's story. Closing/ decommissioning buildings would include capex spend in the retained portfolio. If BT close 300 buildings and exit South America, Spain and Ireland, I would guess H1 and H2 cashflow will benefit and can be planned and delivered that way. They got to do it of course.

Net promoter scores improving Q on Q and a good leading indicator.

Rational economic man can take a run and jump 'coz its dividend day'
http://www.nationaltrustcollections.org.uk/object/207840