Member Info for Longish

..and another top up at 1733. Switching off now till next week LoL
GLA

Topped up at 1739. I am expecting 2/3rds of the annual div in the next 2 qtrs

Both a little out of favour, BATS dropping c.3 places year on year by market value and IMB c.9 places. Divs look good against an ultra low interest rate environment for longer. If you have held or traded in and out from the highs, current prices look good entry points imo. If you are a chartist, could draw a line that sees them go lower under certain scenarios...!
IMB is currently purchasing and cancelling a good lump of shares and have the proceeds from the cigar business in the pipeline to pay down some debt if that is a concern. Both can be classed as defensive if entering a recession. I hold both..

A bit of red in my portfolio today ….IMB shone blue!!
If no more surprises on 5 Nov, the div to look forward to!

Yes makes sense. With roaming and international return revenues in decline or no more, open access networks are the way to go imo. Obviously sweat the revenues where competition is regulated..
Not absolutely sure, but 5G and 4G LTE are 'premium' services and outside net neutrality rulings so VOD can prioritise own services versus OTT. Interesting to see this roll out in EU..!!
VOD is not resting on its laurels!

Hi Andy
The divestment programme should realise proceeds of up to £2 billion from the disposal of the premium cigar business before May 2020 and cover upcoming debt. Reborrowing at low rates might also be an efficient funding strategy..
£500m 7.75% notes due June 2019
€750m 5.0% notes due December 2019
$1,250m 2.95% notes due July 2020
€1,000m 2.25% notes due February 2021
€500m 0.5% notes due July 2021
£1,000m 9.0% notes due February 2022
$1,250m 3.75% notes due July 2022
$1,000m 3.5% notes due February 2023
£600m 8.125% notes due March 2024
€500m 1.375% notes due January 2025
$1,500m 4.25% notes due July 2025
€650m 3.375% notes due February 2026
£500m 5.5% notes due September 2026
£500m 4.875% notes due June 2032

'is it time to run to port'
No imo, but you need a strong crew and a strong stomach, lol

Fair bit of tobacco/ vaping coverage in the last FT Weekend.
Interesting article on French Café Tabacs diversifying to bolster their traditional business and maintain café/rural society and communities. The distribution channel must be a competitive advantage in France...

Interesting also tha nicotine was named after Jean Nicot, a 16th century French ambassador to Portugal who brought tobacco leaves to Europe ;-)

That's another conundrum.
I wonder if Fundsmith will reduce exposure to US growth stocks (risk of recession etc) and move a bigger % into value/ defensive stocks, like IMB at 10 year low prices?

'The mistake many PI's make is looking for high dividend yields'
The value of £2 div in perpetuity is £400 when interest rates are 0.5%
The value of £2 div in perpetuity is £40 when interest rates are 5%

Interest rates have to go up before the div policy should be used to accommodate monetary policy imo...

Philip Hammond is using this thinking to call out Boris and backing from the hedgefund industry for a hard brexit, inflation and a run on the £...

'The mistake many PI's make is looking for high dividend yields'
IMB SP was over £30 last year. The div yield was 6%.

'Net debt'
Thats what VOD has done with Liberty and the SP has lifted

'Net debt'

With interest rates lower for longer, isnt it better to use monies elsewhere. ECB wants corporates to take more debt through the asset purchase programme and move away from QE over next 4 years or so.

'their SP has significantly perked up'.

I think the Liberty deal impacted then lifted the VOD SP. It isnt back up to anything like where I started buying.

'no mention of the capital loss'

Andy I agree. For me, it still performs better than buying an annuity where my capital is 100% lost.
LoL, ironically like the sale and leaseback of the Bristol HQ...

'What about expenses, if these rise more than 2% (likely) then operating profits fall.'
Just needs good financial management ..expenses are under the direct control of management who have a future with the company

Hi WiganW et al
' in twelve months the picture might look different'

True. The future is unknowable and its traditional to extrapolate a past glide path under various scenarios.
Circa £8Bn of debt against c£31Bn of assets (incl. c£19Bn of intangibles).
Lots of financial components can be changed eg does debt need to be paid down or simply serviced as interest rates are lower for longer? Or sell something off the balance sheet to remove some debt (non core activity..), Regulation eg 6 deaths and c.800 reported cases of lung illness linked to vaping across 33 US states to be evidenced/ decided in court (in UK, doctors, public health experts and cancer charities agree that, based on current evidence, e-cigarettes carry a fraction of the risk of cigarettes. But UK has tighter controls eg nicotine content is capped in UK but not in US), other product revenues, maybe cannabis etc. If IMB loses a £1m of revenue/margin, it will have to save £1m of costs to remain net neutral.

In the meantime, IMB are saying revenue growth will be lower than forecast but still growing 2%...

'they picked up 335,000 shares at an average price of about 1848p'
Was that around the technical support?
Ex div again end of Nov c.66p div..

Hi Dan,
'I think Nick is doing a good job now'

The financial planning seems to be falling into place despite the clunky nature of the capital refinancing...
I guess H1 reporting will be focussed on the integration activity and it will be interesting to hear what integration capital is required over and above …
Customer metrics will be important and revenue per customer growing would be good for the trajectory imo

Nick was the CFO but is now the CEO, so I guess a little more of the CEO profile and vision required. I think he has time given the scale of the integration work

Thanks Lazarus1. BBC presented the article as a win for employees and I guess it is in these circumstances.