Div on the 20th. Q3 and Q4 divs, even if they are rebased to 20p would suggest c.£13.40 @6% yield. Current div profile, SP would be £20 @6% yield.
I guess mm's using it as a work horse for smaller caps..
Hi Slift, I agree. TLW have met Moodys criteria for a more positive rating. When might they give it?
WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP
A rating upgrade would require (i) confirmation that the production guidance reset by management in December 2019 can be sustained in the medium term; (ii) material progress on the divestment programme allowing significant deleveraging and resulting in Moody's-adjusted total debt to EBITDA falling below 4.0x and (ii) restoration of a robust liquidity profile.
WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING DOWN
Conversely, the ratings could be downgraded should the liquidity position of the group deteriorate post RBL redetermination and/or in the absence of any disposals. The rating would also come under pressure should the group generate sustained negative FCF resulting in Moody's-adjusted total debt to EBITDA failing to fall back below 5.0x for an extended period of time.
'Any thoughts in Sammy??
Supportive of the company or asset stripper or something else...?'
Rahul and his legal council have all the skills to carve tlw up in any way that they see creates value. 13% interest is influentual but other stakeholders have sway too if their interests align.
9 Sept may throw more light. Even better we get a strategy update, partcularly met assets at year end when uganda kenya impairment and rbl better unferstood
Neversell, there are some earlier posts trying to reconcile different resources. The 18 June Uganda shareholder circular says:
Sam Dossou-Aworet 13.05%
M&G plc 5.22%
RWC Asset Management LLP 5.04%
Summerhill Trust Company (Isle of Man) Limited 4.17%
Azvalor Asset Management S.G.I.I.C., S.A 3.23%
Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC1 3.30%
Total significant shareholdings 34.01%
There is also Yahoo Finance 'Holders' that gives some overview on 'mutual fund' holders, but looks out of date
There is of course the short interest too declared >0.5%
I like that Rahul has brought in his group legal council and I have seen similar team initiative move businesses forward in context of organisational change, business financial and commercial strategy. He is on a mission and clearly fast tracking through team 'forming, norming, storming and reforming'. I a sure the employees are already struck by a sense of urgency..
Yep a hard knock given they are still on track. The impairment was a surprise but its not cash and the oil price will be higher by year end so maybe the new ceo is kitchen sinking before increasing his stake?
I traded 25% last few days and now hold more stock and hold more cash. I will rebalance on the next spike/ RNS or next Wednesday if you believe the SP is being played.
Confucius says 'always expect the unexpected'
'The average 12 month price objective among brokers that have issued ratings on the stock in the last year is 53.70p'
Hi Slift, thanks for your posts
'Things to look out for in the Trading Update - Operations
Further cost savings?:
- Deferred activities
- Force Majeure, etc.
Barrels produced per day from Jubilee (est. 30-32k), TEN (est. 24.5k), non operated portfolio (est. 21k)
Ntomme-9 well flow rate guidance and whether it will be online in August
Any new undeveloped areas identified for 2021 investment to production?
CALM buoy commissioned?
Non operated portfolio Gabon:
Effect on production from OPEC cuts
Ruche wells planned for 2020 delayed due to covid19. Any updates?
Progress of sale of stake
Info on FID and other activities since force majeure?
Info/Progress on exploration compensation for the work done by Tullow on the Turkana fields (circa. $2b)
Decommisioning (UK, Mauritania):
UK final clearance activities all completed?
Progress of abdonment programme for wells in chinguetti fields in Mauritania
'Things to look out for in the Trading Update - Explorations
Tullow have stated that before they drill any more wells, they will reduce their stake to circa 30% for all licenses.
500 km 2D seismic acquisition completed?
Will Tullow plan for a 3D seismic here for 2021?
Interpretation of 3D seismic acquisition completed?
Investment decision to drill a well in 2021 following the above?
Tullow owns 35% interest here, so no farm down, but possible 2021 drill if above results are promising.
Following high-grading of both Kanuku and Orinduik, information on where Tullow plans to drill the next well for 2021.
Tullow owns 60% interest in Orinduik, if next drill planned for Orinduik, Tullow will likely farm out 30% here.
Expected dates for 2D and or 3D seismic acquisition of Z-64, Z-67 and Z-68? - Possibly Q2/Q3
Well in Block 47 to be drilled in Q4 2020.
Tullow owns 50% of Block 47. Tullow will likely farm out circa. 20% of the interests here before the drill. Although not sure if farm out can be completed in time before the drill, will have wait for update!
3D seismic survey in Blocks 114 and 119 completed?
Expected start date for 3D seismic survey for Block 122? (Late 2020 or 2021?)
Tullow owns 100% of Block 122 - Likely farm out before 3D seismic survey here.
Day trading and spread bets. They dont know the results.
Oil over $44 this morning.
looking better $44.17
Slift, 'Am I right in saying that it's a closed period for director buys until interim results on 9th Sept?'
The right answer probably is, 'if in doubt, seek legal advice' LoL. As far as I can tell, the 'supervisory' principal for FY reports according to the FCA et al is clarified in a Q&A as follows:
'if the disclosed preliminary financial results contain all the key information relating to the financial figures expected to be included in the year-end report' then the closed period ends on the date of the preliminary report'.
In theory, 29 July they could start buying if the 29 July report meets the FCA criteria ie for 9 Sept.
'anything normal then we could be heading downwards'
If meet guidance I think that is +ve for moodys risk rerating. Whether that is same impact on day trade vs (say) aug rerate, I dont know, but would trigger interest going foward as risk lessens imo