Member Info for Longish

I like that Rahul has brought in his group legal council and I have seen similar team initiative move businesses forward in context of organisational change, business financial and commercial strategy. He is on a mission and clearly fast tracking through team 'forming, norming, storming and reforming'. I a sure the employees are already struck by a sense of urgency..

Yep a hard knock given they are still on track. The impairment was a surprise but its not cash and the oil price will be higher by year end so maybe the new ceo is kitchen sinking before increasing his stake?
I traded 25% last few days and now hold more stock and hold more cash. I will rebalance on the next spike/ RNS or next Wednesday if you believe the SP is being played.
Confucius says 'always expect the unexpected'
GLA

Consensus ..!
'The average 12 month price objective among brokers that have issued ratings on the stock in the last year is 53.70p'
https://www.americanbankingnews.com/2020/07/25/tullow-oil-plc-lontlw-receives-average-rating-of-hold-from-analysts.html

Hi Slift, thanks for your posts
'Things to look out for in the Trading Update - Operations
General:
Further cost savings?:
- Deferred activities
- Force Majeure, etc.
Ghana:
Barrels produced per day from Jubilee (est. 30-32k), TEN (est. 24.5k), non operated portfolio (est. 21k)
Ntomme-9 well flow rate guidance and whether it will be online in August
Any new undeveloped areas identified for 2021 investment to production?
CALM buoy commissioned?
Non operated portfolio Gabon:
Effect on production from OPEC cuts
Ruche wells planned for 2020 delayed due to covid19. Any updates?
Kenya:
Progress of sale of stake
Info on FID and other activities since force majeure?
Info/Progress on exploration compensation for the work done by Tullow on the Turkana fields (circa. $2b)
Decommisioning (UK, Mauritania):
UK final clearance activities all completed?
Progress of abdonment programme for wells in chinguetti fields in Mauritania

'Things to look out for in the Trading Update - Explorations
Tullow have stated that before they drill any more wells, they will reduce their stake to circa 30% for all licenses.
Ivory Coast:
500 km 2D seismic acquisition completed?
Will Tullow plan for a 3D seismic here for 2021?
Comoros:
Interpretation of 3D seismic acquisition completed?
Investment decision to drill a well in 2021 following the above?
Tullow owns 35% interest here, so no farm down, but possible 2021 drill if above results are promising.
Guyana:
Following high-grading of both Kanuku and Orinduik, information on where Tullow plans to drill the next well for 2021.
Tullow owns 60% interest in Orinduik, if next drill planned for Orinduik, Tullow will likely farm out 30% here.
Peru:
Expected dates for 2D and or 3D seismic acquisition of Z-64, Z-67 and Z-68? - Possibly Q2/Q3
Suriname:
Well in Block 47 to be drilled in Q4 2020.
Tullow owns 50% of Block 47. Tullow will likely farm out circa. 20% of the interests here before the drill. Although not sure if farm out can be completed in time before the drill, will have wait for update!
Argentina:
3D seismic survey in Blocks 114 and 119 completed?
Expected start date for 3D seismic survey for Block 122? (Late 2020 or 2021?)
Tullow owns 100% of Block 122 - Likely farm out before 3D seismic survey here.

looking better $44.17
https://uk.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil-streaming-chart

I thought the guidance was always 70k to 80k and set before we saw the worst of CV. So 70k to 75k would be a result and still within guidance imo

ticking up $43.88
https://m.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil

Slift, 'Am I right in saying that it's a closed period for director buys until interim results on 9th Sept?'

The right answer probably is, 'if in doubt, seek legal advice' LoL. As far as I can tell, the 'supervisory' principal for FY reports according to the FCA et al is clarified in a Q&A as follows:
'if the disclosed preliminary financial results contain all the key information relating to the financial figures expected to be included in the year-end report' then the closed period ends on the date of the preliminary report'.
In theory, 29 July they could start buying if the 29 July report meets the FCA criteria ie for 9 Sept.
https://www.esma.europa.eu/sites/default/files/library/2016-1129_mar_qa.pdf

'anything normal then we could be heading downwards'
If meet guidance I think that is +ve for moodys risk rerating. Whether that is same impact on day trade vs (say) aug rerate, I dont know, but would trigger interest going foward as risk lessens imo

Yep, I guess the point is not to have all your eggs in one basket. Always nice when you get a div.

Hi dope-a-rope,
I agree with you, its hi risk. LoL - trench humour ;-)
Actually I started tlw in 160's, then 130's all the way down. I thought it was a bargain in 160s and had been waiting to get in under 200. Same imb, rdsb, vod, barc, lloy etc. Index trackers help manage risk too..but div policies have messed up income if you are dependent on this for income. tlw for capital drawdown has worked for me but wont be right for alot of people with different timeframes and objectives.

In the last recession I stayed completely out in cash and missed the rises. When you are in, you want out. When you are out, you want in.

Also, qe/loose monetary policy has mispriced risk and bond bubble is very hi risk too imo.

LoL, we are in a good place imo.
We are mixing short, medium and long term objectives. Immediate is Q2 performance 29 July. Short term, 2021 $300m convertible bonds coverered and audit qualification/ rbl will be removed imo for 2020 stats. Medium term, kenya decision (%) looks like end of year dependent on variables such as oil price, demand, fcf, operation/production efficiency, impairment, net assets ( conservative balance sheet). Medium/ long term, new ceo lays out strategy which may include financial, business/ sector restructuring etc

I think its only 6.625% Convertible Bonds due 2021 ($300 million). Rest are senior notes 6.25%, 7% and the rbl.
Is the logic then that as the rbl % increases, it will also increase the underlying 'ultra secure relationship products' made available at bargain prices and the arbitrage continues? Or, does the npv increase from cashflows and asset disposals mean that the 'ultra secure relationship products' are no longer secure and the arbitrage goes away?

Just trying to understand this so apologies if confused.

cant stay down. Recovering into the close $43.34..

https://m.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil

Its hard to see it much lower. I am holding for the div. Market will learn to love the cashflow as it seeks defensive and value. Should tick back up to £16 or £17 imo but i have been in and out since £30+...hard work to build my position but easy for anyone just getting in, i think. Dyor and good luck

He certainly should bring valuable skills from private equity/Delonex and Cairn Energy. I think we will get a clear, executable strategy and it may include disposals within the $1bn portfolio management brief

Meet all guidance. Update on $1Bn portfolio management. What difference the new ceo is going to make, just a glimpse... No negative media commentary. Mad rush to buy on the day, quadrupling (quintuple?) todays pitiful volumes

Hmm, I thought 300's was the bottom for US. 251 is low!

I am still holding. This is a useful summary, Moody's periodic review of MCRO's rating:

Micro Focus International plc's B1 corporate family rating reflects
(1) its solid positioning in the enterprise software market, underpinned by its global presence and its extensive product offering;
(2) the company's continued commitment towards deleveraging;
(3) Moody's expectation of underlying sales execution improvements on the back of the strategic and operational review announced in 2019; and
(4) its strong liquidity profile, supported by solid free cash flow generation.

Micro Focus' rating also reflects
(1) the company's challenges to stabilize operating performance as a consequence of the integration with HPE's software unit and coronavirus impact;
(2) Micro Focus' product portfolio largely composed by mature software applications;
(3) Micro Focus' historically aggressive financial policy, acknowledging the recent dividend suspension and debt repayment through available cash resources; and
(4) its increasing leverage over 2020 mainly driven by additional investments and ongoing revenue decline.
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-announces-completion-of-a-periodic-review-of-ratings-of--PR_424946?cid=HFGG75LYEO30&yptr=yahoo

Thanks Slift.
Yes, I saw the circular wich prompted me to look for other sources. Interesting the % float and the short interest % are similar quantum.

On top of the good analysis on this BB, tlw pi fortunes appear aligned with some quality wealth managers, family trusts and mutual funds who want a return on equity and not just hedged fixed income.