Member Info for Longish

We recover all the JV costs from the effective date of the sale to the UG completion date..so c7 or 8 months costs? Dont know if that is a material number over and above $575m but maybe useful upside this year.

Yes good news. Kenya is now investable re CMD watershed.

Hi Tim
Think Slift made the point in an earlier post that there is no commitment to deliver $1Bn portfolio sales/ asset management by year end. With UG sale TLW has options and time. I think Rahul 's language changed our thinking that the balance would come from Kenya to a broader list of options which is being steered toward, and then from CMD.

Hi Tim,
Is it increased risk or the same risk that was laid out in the 18 June circular pages 22 and 23 covering the period to April 2021 in the event Uganda doesn't complete. If UG does complete before 31 Dec and $500m cash in bank or its equivalent, really all that has happened is TLW has voluntarily brought forward the redetermination to negotiate capital restructuring and with CMD the watershed?
https://data.fca.org.uk/#/nsm/nationalstoragemechanism

Thanks, yes this is what it said.
'Tullow has voluntarily reduced facility commitments from $2.4 billion to c.$2.2 billion, effectively accelerating the first scheduled commitment amortisation from October 2020. The reduction in debt capacity and commitments will result in a reduction of finance costs. The next scheduled amortisation of $211 million (commitment reduction, not repayment) will therefore be in April 2021. This amortisation schedule continues every six months until final maturity in 2024. The next contractual maturity in Tullow's capital structure is the $300 million Convertible Bond in July 2021.'

...sorry to jump in..

Megla, so to jump i but following the posts.
Do you mean April 2020 redetermination
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TLW/business-update-ejc0r4toles988n.html

Slift,
Do you know what the probability is for Moody rerating ie will it immediately follow the Sept 21 RBL review or is it likely to slip to January, the January redetermination but in time for a FY clean audit report and removal of going concern qualification. The going concern qualification was addressed back in March 2020 so Sept or Oct rerating could still be on?

Yes, the more you buy, the lower they take it. Capital markets day is the line in the sand. Trade any spikes until then I guess

Slift, Tony
In the webcast Q&A I think (maybe it was a dream) Rahul said the voluntary January redetermination was to ensure they have the capital markets strategy fully underpinned.

hopefully just box ticking and dinner..
same for the tlw debt hedges and shorts I guess

Is the government stuck on the capital losses that could be carried forward in the acquired business. We know thats a big number as its in out impairment but presumably they want tax income asap

'Why would the Norwegian fund buy BP shares when Norway already HAS Equinor?'
They currently invest in BP, RDSB etc but had scaled back toward renewables etc

I suppose the norwegian sovereign investment fund will start buying volume at some point. SP will go up. This is at the heart of what the public policy makers are trying to achieve globally, investment in green etc. AIMO

Rahul came across as the perfect CEO for TLWs situation. I like the commercial edge and why he brought his legal council with him.
Shorts sold me a few today and powder dry to double up..
GLA

'I’m right in saying the divi is fairly well covered'
Think div cover is around 1.3. The rebased progressive div 'supports balance sheet resilience and flexibility' and there is more than £3Bn head room on financial facilities.
https://www.imperialbrandsplc.com/investors/results-centre.html

Ping
https://uk.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil-streaming-chart

As far as I can tell, a short has been trading 1.2m shares periodically. Yesterday bought volume was 1.2m higher than sales if you can believe the reported volume numbers... but the price was up. Lets hope TLW gives some big news on the 9th and the shorts scramble out and give us a break

'gurantee tlw to drop tomorrow to 19p. bet?'
If it does then I will hold off buying until 16 or lower. Think it needs another short c1.2m vol and buy back tues and wed. Seems to have been the pattern but cant be certainvexcept its not 40 ...

Hi Yuri, yes alot of posts ion that in earlier BB.

You could also worry that BP is using $55 not $60 but then Exxon as far as I am aware has not followed the same accounting method..

The impairment relates to historic cost, cash spent whereas the hedges relate to cash flow being generated to fund current and future operations. The impairment ought to be in the SP when it crashed to lows.

IMO current SP is more to do with weak $, shorts controlling the free float and ii volumes not yet (re) trusting TLW to drive volume imo

One imminent change to that level of trust/ buying volume, is the rerating.
Moodys said:
WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP
A rating upgrade would require (i) confirmation that the production guidance reset by management in December 2019 can be sustained in the medium term; (ii) material progress on the divestment programme allowing significant deleveraging and resulting in Moody's-adjusted total debt to EBITDA falling below 4.0x and (ii) restoration of a robust liquidity profile.

$60 oil probability by end of year as 10 year US treasury yields and German Bunds rising. I also think money will move from gold to oil stocks and etfs as inflation prospect rises not withstanding return of demand from CV imo