RE: Ready for lift off.....7 Mar 2021 11:51
I guess the liquidity forecast gap in 2022 could be filled by a farmdown from kenya and concludes the $1Bn portfolio management action taken 2019/20. Legal form of the refi still to be agreed but bond prices have risen because the plan is being delivered based on the substance of Rahuls plan plus evidence of execution. Oil $10 more than the long run oil price in the impairment and, anyway, the liquidity gap is caclulated on the base case/ lower oi price. Its all tilting to the upside hence the SP is rising.
Dont think we get the real value until the refi is complete end of Q2 or Kenya end of H2. Rahul options crystallise 2025 so I expect he wants maximum value then although could he get it earlier on a bid?
High risk still but definitely worht persevering for higher SP imo