We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
Hi Tim
Think Slift made the point in an earlier post that there is no commitment to deliver $1Bn portfolio sales/ asset management by year end. With UG sale TLW has options and time. I think Rahul 's language changed our thinking that the balance would come from Kenya to a broader list of options which is being steered toward, and then from CMD.
Hi Tim,
Is it increased risk or the same risk that was laid out in the 18 June circular pages 22 and 23 covering the period to April 2021 in the event Uganda doesn't complete. If UG does complete before 31 Dec and $500m cash in bank or its equivalent, really all that has happened is TLW has voluntarily brought forward the redetermination to negotiate capital restructuring and with CMD the watershed?
https://data.fca.org.uk/#/nsm/nationalstoragemechanism
Thanks, yes this is what it said.
'Tullow has voluntarily reduced facility commitments from $2.4 billion to c.$2.2 billion, effectively accelerating the first scheduled commitment amortisation from October 2020. The reduction in debt capacity and commitments will result in a reduction of finance costs. The next scheduled amortisation of $211 million (commitment reduction, not repayment) will therefore be in April 2021. This amortisation schedule continues every six months until final maturity in 2024. The next contractual maturity in Tullow's capital structure is the $300 million Convertible Bond in July 2021.'
Megla, so to jump i but following the posts.
Do you mean April 2020 redetermination
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TLW/business-update-ejc0r4toles988n.html
Slift,
Do you know what the probability is for Moody rerating ie will it immediately follow the Sept 21 RBL review or is it likely to slip to January, the January redetermination but in time for a FY clean audit report and removal of going concern qualification. The going concern qualification was addressed back in March 2020 so Sept or Oct rerating could still be on?
I suppose the norwegian sovereign investment fund will start buying volume at some point. SP will go up. This is at the heart of what the public policy makers are trying to achieve globally, investment in green etc. AIMO
'I’m right in saying the divi is fairly well covered'
Think div cover is around 1.3. The rebased progressive div 'supports balance sheet resilience and flexibility' and there is more than £3Bn head room on financial facilities.
https://www.imperialbrandsplc.com/investors/results-centre.html
Ping
https://uk.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil-streaming-chart
As far as I can tell, a short has been trading 1.2m shares periodically. Yesterday bought volume was 1.2m higher than sales if you can believe the reported volume numbers... but the price was up. Lets hope TLW gives some big news on the 9th and the shorts scramble out and give us a break
'gurantee tlw to drop tomorrow to 19p. bet?'
If it does then I will hold off buying until 16 or lower. Think it needs another short c1.2m vol and buy back tues and wed. Seems to have been the pattern but cant be certainvexcept its not 40 ...
Hi Yuri, yes alot of posts ion that in earlier BB.
You could also worry that BP is using $55 not $60 but then Exxon as far as I am aware has not followed the same accounting method..
The impairment relates to historic cost, cash spent whereas the hedges relate to cash flow being generated to fund current and future operations. The impairment ought to be in the SP when it crashed to lows.
IMO current SP is more to do with weak $, shorts controlling the free float and ii volumes not yet (re) trusting TLW to drive volume imo
One imminent change to that level of trust/ buying volume, is the rerating.
Moodys said:
WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP
A rating upgrade would require (i) confirmation that the production guidance reset by management in December 2019 can be sustained in the medium term; (ii) material progress on the divestment programme allowing significant deleveraging and resulting in Moody's-adjusted total debt to EBITDA falling below 4.0x and (ii) restoration of a robust liquidity profile.
$60 oil probability by end of year as 10 year US treasury yields and German Bunds rising. I also think money will move from gold to oil stocks and etfs as inflation prospect rises not withstanding return of demand from CV imo
'At 28 July, 60 per cent of 2020 sales revenue hedged with a floor of $57/bbl, 44 per cent of 2021 sales revenue hedged with a floor of $51/bbl.'
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TLW/trading-statement-jsw67nkixlgff13.html