Member Info for Longish

'At 28 July, 60 per cent of 2020 sales revenue hedged with a floor of $57/bbl, 44 per cent of 2021 sales revenue hedged with a floor of $51/bbl.'

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TLW/trading-statement-jsw67nkixlgff13.html

Hi Jep, thanks, yes patience. I think we will see movement from bonds to stocks like imb in the next 12 months. In the meantime, nice (rebased) dividend to look forward to.

dont forget we are 60% hedged too, so average is much higher than $46

Going the right way..$46.30.
https://m.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil

Tony,
'I do feel that an elite are exploiting the pandemic and may influence sentiment to energy companies'
Certainly current evidence of 'interest group bias'. FT Weekend reports the World Bank has suspended its global business climate index due to ranking issues...'a lot of policy recommendations and prescriptions and judgements on FDI direction...in developing countries have been based on this report' says former deputy minister Tanzania. World Banks chief economist resigned after alleging Chiles ranking drop from 34 to 55 may have been deliberately skewed by World Bank staff ideologically opposed to President Michelle Bachelets socialist government... Similar ranking issue with India due a 'change in methodology' not equivalent to a change in business environment..

World Bank has been working through most effected. Most improvements were SA, Jordon, Togo, Bahrain, Tajikistan, Pakistan, Kuwait, China, India and Nigeria.

It would make sense why FDI decisions are under a microscope and slower than a business would like.

'The shorters are still all over it '
yep, they closed 1.2m yesterday and sold same again today imo

'Oil prices rose on Monday as more than 1.5 mb/d of U.S. offshore oil production was temporarily taken offline due to storms in the Gulf of Mexico. On Tuesday, prices inched up a bit further. But the impact cuts both ways – significant outages at Gulf Coast refineries could depress upstream prices in the Permian. However, either way, the effects are likely to be transitory.'
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Gulf-of-Mexico-Storms-Push-Oil-Prices-Higher.html

2m sold, 3.2m bought, - marshall wace I suppose?

Interesting. Where is the centre of management control vs where is the centre of economic control. Offshore holding, operating and service companies. Dutch Antilles, Cayman, BVI, Singapore and Delaware are most popular letterboxes imo

Brent Oil contract rolls over today to the Nov 20 contract. Will be interesting!

Reserve based lending mix % increase, moody rerating, underpinned by fcf.

If (per tornado) TLW cash flow is $175m, to get an annual income of $175m in perpetuity you would have to pay $1.75Bn @10% discount rate or $2.9Bn @6% rate or $17.5Bn at ultra low 1% rate. Higher interest rates boost commodity stocks and inflation.. higher interest rates are coming, they cant keep printing money and the democrats probably wont

I guess also we wont impair kenya at yearend. $667m at the end of 2019 i think.

Interesting. Final investment decision is expected in this year’s second half.
https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/article/14182162/kenya-block-partners-to-withdraw-notices-of-force-majeure

Thanks Tornado, yes agree with that focus. Improved production and better prices and would add 'in an axial relationship with increased demand'.

The top down plan is playing out more or less as per guidance. The price of oil and demand is not under the managements direct control, but production improvements are, as is ensuring optimum resource allocation (eg hedging etc) and so far so good (eg increased hedges for 2021).

There is a lot to be positive about. Sustainable cashflow servicing each strategic objective imo. Just need the turn of a friendly card.
GLA

Slift, thanks for another post keeping the analysis and logic alive.
'These drops past two days have been fantastic opportunities for people to increase their holding, IMO. I too have increased my holding today.'
I added today also.

Hi Toff, I thought £13 was bottom on 'classical' long view but anything is possible now. Cant believe I was buying £30+ not so long ago. Just have to keep going, eventually the tide will turn.

Next 2 quarterly divs double up and if they stick to guidance 80p+ over 6 months, should end the year higher.

I gave up trading for divs last year, vod, bt, mcro, most ftse div stocks including trackers. Just trying to be in the market for recovery without losing too much capital.

Best strategy was to be in cash until march 2020 in hindsight.

Me too, 25k

Well ended the day down by the div and stamp duty to get back in (if you wanted to trade it before ex div)...so could have been worse in todays market?

'Shooters decreased once again, surely the shorters think Tullow are in a lot better position than PMO, it’s the difference in management here.'
I find it hard to track changes in short volume but it looked like the SP increased net c.0.5p on their c.1.3m buy (0.09% reduction). Maybe they shorted again today to help propel the SP down and we see that in the interest tracker next week?
Anyone know?

Night watch, you Voyeur. Get back to the vacuum cleaner