Member Info for Longish

Thanks Akhtar, 'we do not know how strong demand will be and if the green revolution is being accelerated'
The developing 'green' policies are generally underpinned with 'voluntary guidance' which TLW has already adopted best practice and adopting 'best in class' policy.

The FSB Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) has developed 'voluntary, consistent climate-related financial risk disclosures for use by companies in providing information to investors, lenders, insurers, and other stakeholders and help companies understand what financial markets want from disclosure in order to measure and respond to climate change risks, and encourage firms to align their disclosures with investors’ needs.

TLW recognise 'climate change and the decarbonisation of the global economy represent fundamental strategic risks to their business.. and are proactively taking action to mitigate these risks by:
'complying with emerging climate change legislation and regulation and reducing our GHG emissions as far as is reasonably practical; minimising the GHG emissions potential of our activities and implementing reduction initiatives; adopting a business strategy that is responsive to applicable regulatory developments designed to address climate change; and maintaining transparency and openness in our engagement about climate change'

Full disclosure in line with the TCFD recommendation are show from page 25 onward in the 2019 Annual Report
https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/6515/8636/0100/2019_Annual_Report_and_Accounts.pdf

See also, pages 27 and 28 of the 2019 TLW Sustainability Report.
https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/9215/8694/9510/Tullow_Oil_plc_Sustainability_Report_2019.pdf

More good analysis Slift.
My 'philosophical' perspective supports $60. We know the IMF, governments, firms et al were using $80 for their long range plans/ FIDs before the pandemic. Total and TLW appear to have set c$60 as a tipping point for the Uganda deal. The world returning to WTO rules must adopt common definitions of cost including the price of oil and each sovereign economy will aim to comply in setting policies, including cleaner/ greener energy. This will apply across the tlw geographical footprint. The markets can remain asynchronous for long periods and 'flip flop' around common definitions but never the less, imo, guidance is set for compliance on a glide path to $60 and higher oil prices. To survive this transition period, its fortunate tlw have the hedges and saleable assets to bridge (polarise?) the trade gaps with the real economy.

Interesting how this turns out. Governments are not fast decision makers though.

Thanks again Slift.
Certainly lots in the pipeline and some wriggle room. This year is still about rebuilding trust. We know the new CEO's background is 'pregnant with possibilities' so its going to be interesting to understand his take on the strategy going forward. Hopefully more than raising an eyebrow but he is unlikely to show all his cards on his 1st day out.

News starts to flow again next week with the Uganda vote. GL and GLA

Thanks Slift. We are lucky to have you on this BB.

I added another 30k today and in profit. Holding long term and will adjust as the opportunities arise. Shale will no doubt play into jobs and the US elections so plenty of volatility but $60 oil eventually because that's the way of global trade and trump gone. TLW need to deliver on their guidance in the meantime otherwise I will be gone too!

'The global energy agency that rarely helps the positive case in oil has given a friendly boost to those long crude, just as the week comes to an end.

Crude prices jumped more than 1% on Friday after the International Energy Agency bumped up its 2020 forecast for global oil demand, lifting a market that took its worst hammering in six weeks in the previous session.'
https://m.uk.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-gets-rare-late-week-boost-from-iea-demand-outlook-2159850#

$43.23..also marshall wace increased their short...need to hear our new ceo's green energy strategy to shake them off me thinks
https://uk.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil-streaming-chart

I struggled to buy this morning. Had to break them down into 6 tranches.

Yes a bit naff but $42.38 not bad, considering..
https://m.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil

September Brent $43.41 - regional mix in demand to the upside?
https://uk.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil-streaming-chart

$43.26. We keep seeing $43..
https://m.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil

Slift, thanks. TLW and RDSB are my oil&gas long term bets.

Crikey Slift, thanks for the information. You certainly are doing your due diligence before investing.
What other companies are you researching :-)?

'Its should already be at least 45p if it was not for share price manipulation.'
Maybe they will take it to 45p on H1 performance, if no surprises. Marshall Wace increased short slightly Is this to do with their Green fund strategy. New CEO might have something to say on 2021+ clean energy.

'Out of curiousity, how did you come to the value of $1.7b?'
Hi Slift.
$200m fcf being somewhere between your hi and low numbers. If I was buying an annuity that gave me $200m every year into the future and the discount rate was 12% , then 200/.12=$1.7bn (rounding). Just a paramater not a prediction.

It looks like we have very low interest rates at least until 2025 or maybe indefinitely, so maybe 10% is a better rate and $2bn or 1.14p per share.

If tlw can average $200m fcf pa, that must value it c$1.7bn or c.95p average per share imo. If the deal is approved and H1 on track, the SP must move to the upside, surely?
Its an option to value upstream oil co's based on income. If the deal isnt approved, liquidity is tight but the value can be based on assets. What would that be, c55p based on, say, $1bn net assets?

'Okay, so correct me here if you think it's wrong.'
Hi Slift. The part where 31 May we have a major terrorist event and all the BoD are shot before approving Kenya RNS. The worst case scenario only happens in B movies ;-)
Net debt is more like $2.3bn after uganda, at least thats what the circular says. Then we can expect all the hedged and unhedged cash from sales>$35 oil. Assuming we get Kenya too, and why not, well, we must be looking at 80p net assets by year end. Adjust for enterprise value if all the boxes have been ticked and oil back above $50 and CEO explains 2021 and beyond outlook, we must be well over £1?

"Does he just pick up the existing strategy and run with it or does he recalibrate where he thinks he gets bigger wins?"
I guess completion of Kenya would be on his list of top 5 things to do. If Uganda is complete by September, Kenya needs to conclude in Q4 or by December to meet the $1Bn portfolio management target?
Either Kenya is pretty close to an RNS or it will slip into 2021 recognition imo.
Two big deals in such a short timeframe is going some but I guess the FID financial appraisals would always have had these sale options and available to work with off the shelf as the opportunities present themselves.

'Info regarding Uganda pipeline' the order of approvals and negotiations don't look like they get in the way of the sale, which is good.