Member Info for Longish

Thanks Scfc

I suppose the interim div in Dec c4.6p+ could be safe with next years final rebased to give 10p...if the div is rebased of course.

Why couldn't Openreach IPO now EE is in the fold. Would have similar impact as VODs tower sale and a near term catalyst not just for BT but also UK PLC?

Dont know what to make of global conditions. Bloomberg worries about US equity values dislocated from the underlying economy and maybe a correction...but isnt QE/QT dislocated from the underlying economy? Its not the FEDs job to feed the mm's? Think VOD is doing ok because it has more strategic clarity than others and imo if it falls, it falls less than others? May it wont rise as quickly as some growth stocks if intetest rates are lowered further and for longer?

VOD has been steady and I am less worried. In fact has moved back up from 16th to 11th in the FTSE by market value simply by standing still...

Seems to be the same price behaviour as VOD which on the mast sales news spiked from 132 to 156 over 2 days and now holding around 150

Aus3009,
I maybe missed something in the thread and talking generally. Specifically, a financial review of BT dunn&bradstreet markets would determine how material the impact on existing European enterprise accounts and new prospects. I am guessing some of this work has been done in the BT decision to withdraw from Ireland, Spain, Latin America etc. I agree with you on the principles of single standards etc. But even within EU, each sovereign member state has complex local compliance requirements and their own unique portfolio of legacy technologies and systems. Hence the draft agreement is written to allow local politicians flexibility to spin the agreement as required locally. VOD has been successful with the Liberty deal in Germany and Eastern Europe

Aus3009,
I think telco services will be ok. The problem of where a service is provided in 'cyberspace' generally is tied to a physical location/ platform/ device and is not a problem unique to Brexit but all interoperators/ service providers etc and lots of effort is currently spent collecting/ arguing for 'local' taxes.
Similar problems arising with China/US where the trade data is materially different/ out of balance ie what is recorded as sent vs what is recorded as received because of all the intermediary countries adding value toward the end product...

The WTO et al have laid out the measurement and reporting rules if a country wishes to subscribe to them...

Hi Aus3009,
We already have data compliance regulations today and BT risk & governance procedures are bau..I am not saying there wont be compliance issues, but its just part of the endless day job for BT and costed in..

"missed out Irish border"
___________________
I think the border issue will be a problem for the movement of goods. I dont think it will impact the delivery of services.

Hi Dan, keep pumping, LoL

LoL, I have been on a sea survival course...
Steven Callahan was 76 days lost at sea and managed to shoot a spear gun through his liferaft, then spent a week pumping water until he could find a way to make it airtight...

Crikey, after the last 18 months I am more than happy to sit/ consolidate at 150 for a while and worry about other investments. Nice interim div in Nov to look forward to. H1 will reinforce what has already been laid out and executed imo

Andy
'la la land'
--------------
Yes, I see he is 'charged with building stronger relationships with companies and industry groups'. This fits with BoJo's comments on business concerns about Brexit, quote, ' fxck business'!

My point about BT and the regulatory framework is simply the legal form. As it is an EU Framework it is unlikely to change by 31 October and if it changes, it will be negotiated under whatever the new law of the land is. Griffith wont get another £17m from Comcast or if he does, brexit voters wont be getting any of it or voting for it.

Hi johndean,
Just had a quick dip into some ofcom docs relating to this. OFCOM appears to be moving toward a geographic model where interconnectivity between cities and towns (hubs) helps redefine economic and regional geographies (ie market definitions), market power, competition and new investment sources.

In an ealier post it was noted the EU regulatory framework Act 2002 led the EC and the UK to form OFCOM with a statutory duty under the UK Communications Act 2003 and highlighted the EU is a fundamental part of the UK government..!

However if we brexit, do we tear up the EU framework, revert to something like OFTEL and create a Communications Act 2020 in the interests of UK plc led by BT? Or perhaps a negotiated investment/settlement with the EC/ EU, region by region, city by city, town and village coordinated by BT?...or perhaps a piecemeal trade deal with the US and commercialy negotiated with BT or something else?

In any scenario, BT has the core competancy and the national interests of UK PLC at heart and we know jp has met with BoJo and laid out the stall....

Hi Fruitster, Mr_Rooster,
Thanks for a very considerate post. You are right imo and I would add a UK and Global index tracker that pay divs too.
In the scheme of things, I worry more about the overall value of my div portfolio than the individual SPs and rebalance when the opportunity presents itself. I also hold a lot of VOD who are arguably a little further along than BT having rebased the div and executed a lot of their strategic initiatives to recover some of the SP.

I would also like to get into a US index tracker with a div when there is a good correction as a bit too toppy for me at the moment.

My only real concern is interest rates which may remain low for longer. The problem here, imo, is that pensions and salaries in the public sector are dependent on QE sourced monies. In Europe, the QE reinvestment programme seeks to monetise
that in bonds in the real world. To my mind, this central bank controlled policy is as much to blame for the fall in SPs because credit liquidity is directed away to the fixed income market. I hold some fixed income, but it does look a bit toppy and might arguably be a bubble waiting to burst or drive high inflation or economic crisis in emerging markets

Generally I am prepared to trade opportunities in good quality companies and indexes paying divs and stay invested over the next 20 years or die 1st LoL

LoL, 'her indoors' is already spending tomorrows div. If only she knew (or wanted to know)

Hi Fleccy and all,
Thats the thing. Alot of people on the BB are looking to make a short term profit. If you had to buy a £100k annuity or buy BT shares for a pension income and investment, I reckon you would be more than 25% better off buying BT in current value terms assuming you live for 20 years. If you die earlier, the £100k in the annuity is lost but the BT shares can be sold...

My bet is BT will still be trading in 20 years and paying a div even if it gets rebased or cut completely for a couple of years and you are still better off owning the share.

Of course you can try and time a bottom to increase the current value but you are losing income in the meantime as you have to hold the share to get the div.

Yes lol

Could see the retail side of BT in a deal that anti trust would approve. Wholesale side, openreach, think would be kept sepparate . Would be interesting to see the pension deficit split between wholesale and retail

Hi Dan, I dont know but reading the link (1st time today) suggests the process can include things like a price monitoring extension when prices are outside tolerance and cant be matched and the final closing price can get generated around 16.50. I wouldnt be surprised if something processed at 4.35 within the normal close process, gets recorded on a downstream system with a late timestamp...

LoL, might be a faster burn. US after hours closing price was up 2.18%. Will be disappointig if BT cant get it up :-)