Member Info for Longish

Thank you Velo. 2 thoughts stand out for me...
1.) the allocation of costs to segments to get segment EBITDA suggests the management are more clear what is driving operational costs and could explain the recent announcement to close a large number of properties. A lot of the 'shared' cost is buildings, power, heat & light, insurances etc. That's also consistent with BT having to let competition, Sky, Talk Talk etc into the local exchanges, cabinets etc. why BT wouldn't want to invest in building/ expansion on behalf of the competition. So looks like BT has a handle on the big fixed overhead costs and can control and deliver big costs savings.
2.) 5G should pick up a lot of 'addressable capacity' which the competition like Sky and Talk Talk cant compete. How that is load balanced I expect is currently being tested city by city, building by building as it rolls out

LoL. You can also have a bullish marubozo and while the SP will come back, I don't think we get our hair back!
Don't think you are doing anything wrong. Everyone is holding paper losses on a wide range of quality stocks over the last 18 months. QE/ QT and interest rates driving where cash goes to and from..VOD is still going to be trading in 5 years time and well past the worst

Hi johandesilva,

At VOD 2019 results presentation NR indicated it would be Q2 before we would see Service Revenues recovering and stronger performance in H2. An extract from the transcript says...

'To summarise, the industry remains challenged with low macro visibility. However, we are focused on moving at pace on our strategy. We are starting to deliver more consistent commercial performance, especially in Spain and Italy, which should support a gradual recovery in service revenue from Q2 onwards. We are highly confident on delivering our net opex reduction target, given that half of this goal has already been executed. These savings are driven by digital and radical simplification, which is making us structurally a stronger business. We’ve made good progress on improving asset utilisation through network sharing deals, and we’re exploring a range of monetisation options for our towers with a clear focus on value creation. We’re on track to close the Liberty acquisition in July, and intend to have a fast start on realising the benefits. And though the decision was not taken lightly our new dividend policy promises and prioritises rapid de-leveraging towards the lower end of the range in the next few years, improving our financial headroom to deliver the transformation in growth and cash generation we are targeting. In FY20 we expect to continue to grow, with a stronger performance in H2 as we see the benefit of our actions, and we have a clear ambition to continue to grow free cashflow as demonstrated by our LTIP.'

The word marubozu means “bald head” or “shaved head” in Japanese. I guess we could assume VOD Bears have bald heads???

Last post on candles.. been a useful learning for me and thanks to Velo for posting the link.
Todays candle was a ‘Bearish Marabozu’, the strongest bearish candle that appears and reveals the bears are solidly in control. Not a textbook Marabozu because of a small lower shadow indicating some bullish activity. Open 133.92, close 131.74.
Interesting that the trading pattern this week seems to me to be tracking the upper trendline (see link) which suggests c131+ at 23 July, the scheduled date for a decision on Liberty. It makes some sense that the SP should track down as the debt pile is recognised in the SP but not the incremental €1,700,000,000 annual earnings and there are other profitable opportunities in the market at the moment.
€1,700,000,000 at 8% cost of capital = €21,250,000,000 incremental market value. With 26,727m shares in issue, I make that an additional 79.5p on the SP.
So I am holding on for the Liberty clearance decision.
https://www.marketscreener.com/VODAFONE-GROUP-PLC-15867071/charts/

GLA and pleasant weekend

'Institutional shareholder advisory group ISS has recommended a vote against the group's latest remuneration report. Glass Lewis, another advisory group, has recommended a vote for, and the Pensions & Investment Research Consultants (PIRC), which has previously opposed Vodafone's remuneration resolutions, has recommended shareholders abstain.

https://www.marketscreener.com/VODAFONE-GROUP-PLC-15867071/news/Vodafone-executives-cut-share-awards-by-20-to-reflect-low-stock-price-28877648/

Still following velos 'flashcard link'
Todays candle was an 'Inverted Hammer', a specific type of spinning top candle which occurs after a downswing and is a WEAK bullish reversal signal. Opened today 131.92 to close same as yesterday 132.50. As Jack said earlier, bulls and bears battling on low volume. Bulls got it today but only just. Fingers crossed for a close over 134 tomorrow and a peaceful weekend LoL
GLA

Jack, sorry, ignore last sentence which was going to say there are now more positives than negatives...

Hi Jack,
I agree. This morning started with a few big sells relative to buys which seem to have been enough to take the SP down (low volumes) probably reinforced by a train of small algo trades. Not sure if the SP movement today also reflects institution protest of the LTIP and if so, is it a shot across the bows, a drag until the AGM or a warning that Q1, as Barclays put it, has "hopefully no operational deterioration" . Maybe a Mexican standoff until the AGM on the 23rd which NR can kill off in a good Q1 update on the 26th underpinned by the Liberty clearance (and maybe, credit rating upgrade soon after that).

I am still worried, but not as worried as when we were at 122.22!

Thanks and Good luck

In any event, there seems to be more positivesth negatives and the n

Hi DJ, think this is the article and link. Whatever the reason, would like to see the current programme completed without interruption to the SP. Maybe we will hear who the new Chairman will be around the time of the AGM.

'In a note circulated to clients this week which has been seen by Sky News, ISS said support for the remuneration was not considered warranted because the number of shares awarded to bosses under Vodafone's long-term incentive plan last month was significantly higher than a year ago. That was the consequence of a sharp fall in its share price, with ISS arguing that "when there has been a material decline in a company's share price, remuneration committees should consider reducing the size of LTIP awards at the time of grant". According to ISS, Vodafone's pay committee said it believed the most appropriate time to use discretion on share awards was at the point of vesting rather than at grant.
"The committee has committed to use downward discretion if the value of an award is considered excessive or unwarranted," ISS quoted the company as saying.
https://news.sky.com/story/vodafone-pay-row-looms-amid-city-fury-at-dividend-cut-11760153

The thirty-fifth Annual General Meeting (‘AGM’) of Vodafone Group Plc will be held at the Royal Lancaster London, Lancaster Terrace, London W2 2TY on Tuesday, 23 July 2019 at 11.00am.
https://www.vodafone.com/content/index/investors/shareholders/agm.html

Hi Trendfriend, Jack, Dan, Gerry et al,
I read the free pages on the link and don't disagree with any of it. Could add that investors and traders do irrational things eg contrarian investors, gamblers etc. Maybe just me but its also about reducing the number of mistakes I make over time in the market, experiential as well as technical, fundamentals etc

Although we didnt close above resistance I am sticking my kneck out to forecast a long blue candle all day tomorrow or Friday taking us back up over 134. Is it too much to hope we close above 135?
This would complete a pattern - the 'Bullish Rest After Battle 'candle pattern which is a strong bullish continuation.

If we dont at least close above resistance by cob Friday I will eat my candles!
GLA

Bit more red this morning. I think the butcher, the baker and the candle stick maker will be buying though...135 required by cob Friday please

Hi Gerry,
' I take it that is from way back and you are still hanging on'
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I have churned my portfolio over the years and lost the plot on individual histories but still hanging on to the portfolio :-). To be honest, I just manage the overall pot and the current mix. VOD timing was unfortunate but there are plenty of other examples where blue chip stocks have tanked over the same period. 2 Aug we get our div and I am going to spend that :-)

GLA

Hi Gerry, I think I still have 2 NTL shares from C&W...!
Expected a little bit of red today and maybe tomorrow. 2nd half of the week closing back above 135 ?

GLA

RoyAlMail, feel the VOD force ;-)

Still following Velos candle flashcards. Decided not to post yesterday that a red candle today would have completed a 3 day pattern = 'evening Doji star' which is a strong bearish reversal signal and probably taken us back to 128'ish territory imo.

Followed the candles through out the day and as you know the SP just kept coming back. 2nd half this afternoon was testing but as the 'evening Doji star' was not going to appear, I decided a small top up at 134.328 would pay back next week. Lets see.

I liked Barclay broker note yesterday. Not so much that they have a 200 target (fine by me) but more for its tone and content which resonates with many of the long term holders views on the BB as well as a terrific opportunity to new .

'Barclays said it still saw "a clear value opportunity" in Vodafone, and potential near term catalysts to help unlock a discount to its 200p price target, with "hopefully no operational deterioration" in the first quarter.

The analysts also factored in Liberty Global's assets into its forecasts after Vodafone swooped in and acquired its German and Eastern European cable networks for an enterprise value of €18.4bn, and removed the group's New Zealand operations following their recent sale.

"Adding Liberty Global (Germany/CEE) adds c€1.7bn to FY21e EBITDA, c€200m to FCF, +€18.4bn to net debt, with €500m+ of synergies inside 5 years boosting FCF," said Barclays.

"Removing NZ reduces EBITDA c€300m, and net debt c€2bn. With other minor changes the net impact is to increase FY21e EBITDA +7% (€15.7bn), EPS +12% (11.0p), FCF +4% (€5.87bn) and net debt (+€16bn)."

GLA

Absolutely Dan, woohoo!!

Hi Gerry,
'get my "simple" broadband up to the minimum speed'
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I had a similar problem with BT...BT Retail were allowed to work on the room side of the skirting board and open reach behind the socket but 'never the twain shall meet'...I eventually changed providers and it turned out I was being billed for superfast broadband but wasnt actually connected to it at the cabinet...so I was told by the new provider.

OK SP close today. Need a nice green candle tomorrow to consolidate...

Bonds also doing well... crazy economics but if you are not in, you are out

Hi danielh,
Nice buy
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Unfortunately not many, £5k. Keeps me watching the SP...
After today, I feel increasingly positive and the proactive marketing of 5G makes me think we will see more of the same after the liberty clearance.