Member Info for Longish

More prosperous societies tend to embrace new tech before poorer ones
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I guess the adoption of next gen technologies have not only helped rationalise domestic policies but international policies too. Generally through media and education policy we are more aware of the increasing relative economic inequality modern trade creates. Global institutions like the IMF and OECD are pressing for increased use of domestic fiscal policy to solve these imbalance issues (eg we see the current issues as populism etc). In practice in the UK, Boris will raise the higher rate of tax to £80k while Jeremy will raise the rate for those earning more than £80k. I think I will still scratch my head why the high street is closing, pension funds depleted, and senior manager owners paying no tax, living on a 200m yachts in between 3 or 4 luxury homes?

Is the playing field level? Is life just unfair and who says it should be fair? If we go back to some rustic rural idyll, we would be serfs earning a living on a limited supply of land. Cyberspace is theoretically infinite and accessed from a phone or laptop! The internet economy is more democratic if seen in this way?

plus home broadband. 3 UK plans to have 80% 5G network coverage within 3 years. Looks like an balanced roll out of the groups uk broadband spectrum along with upgrades to 4G. Competition heating up.
https://www.telecompaper.com/news/3-uk-plans-5g-launch-in-august-with-home-broadband-service--1296111

I lost money as a long term hold following the bailout and equity dilution. As a short term trade on interest rate volatility, they might be worth a punt if you have spare cash...Market is talking lower interest rates so risk is to the downside imo..

Hi Dan, some random thoughts as its a huge question!

I think 5G is supposed to be the common standard so that everything across supply chains can interoperate efficiently eg manufacturing to the same standards across the telecoms and IT industry. All new products missing programme implementation gates/ dates get launched later and possibly under the banner of 6G when there may not be any material 'G' difference. What is scientifically known in this area has been known for more than 50 or 100 years, operating in labs, discussed in government and societal programmes, workshops, research etc but not commercially exploitable until a licensed spectrum auction etc.

I had wireless internet at home in 1980 using amateur radio, the board from a sinclair spectrum and pakrat software. Took 12 hours to download a page from the internet ..LoL!!

Vodafone Italia has switched on its 5G network in five cities across the country ahead of the Vodafone group's launch of 5G roaming in the UK

https://www.telecompaper.com/news/vodafone-italia-switches-on-5g-in-5-cities-rising-to-100-by-2021--1295687

Interesting article. I guess these will be Cisco routers with 5G cells embedded (located in customer premises etc)and software defined routing instead of big box switches controlled centrally. Adds up to a reduction in a huge fixed network overhead cost from housing all the kit in buildings across the country.

Also I guess 6G is likely to be those products that miss the 5G gate …

BT announcing similar reductions in the number of buildings they service. All the operators pushing for lower cost, flatter networks
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jun/05/bt-to-close-offices-in-more-than-270-uk-locations

Thanks

Gerry,
'and lloyds doing quarterly divis next'
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Yes quarterly income works for me and avoids one off shocks like the VOD div cut.

I am watching Lloyds and not currently invested. I had them in 2008 at 381p...and they never recovered much past 80 before settling back currently c.57 ..

I think VOD reports Q1 on [25 July] and Liberty clearance decision is [23 July]. Hope the SP drifts along quietly and provides no further surprise except to the upside.

Good luck and GLA

Hi Gerry,
TA or fundementals, value or growth. We all ended up in the same in the same place. We are not the only collateral damage. Vittorio gone and now the search for a new chairman.
https://www.marketscreener.com/VODAFONE-GROUP-15867071/news/Vodafone-Appoints-Consultants-to-Start-Search-for-New-Chairman-28686454/

https://www.marketscreener.com/VODAFONE-GROUP-15867071/news/Vodafone-Appoints-Consultants-to-Start-Search-for-New-Chairman-28686454/

Jack, OFAH

"Best of luck to you both.....put it all behind you and look forward to the summer.
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Sorry that you had to take the loss. OFAHs right, you do feel better and its good for the soul to be clear of it. Having experienced the same a few times over the years and to date, the normal reaction is shock and it moves in waves. Important to recognise that before attempting recovery (discipline as you say is a good example) otherwise it can amplify your risk preference and compound losses/ errors in strategy ..!!

I am continuing to hold my VOD shares, watching the SP and looking forward to post Liberty...

GLA

In all probability you are probably right :-). Still, I currently think the dynamics have changed and are 'more curvilinear' to the upside. With SP and market uncertain where next, we could gap up..

We have been discussing 131 support in earlier posts. Have to admit, I was pleasantly surprised to see 134 today and genuinely pleased for everyone suffering from higher entry points.

In all probability you are probably right :-). Still, I currently think the dynamics have changed and are 'more curvilinear' to the upside. With SP and market uncertain where next, we could gap up..

We have been discussing 131 support in earlier posts. Have to admit, I was pleasantly surprised to see 134 today and genuinely pleased for everyone suffering from higher entry points.

Hi trendfriend,
I appreciate your insight.
Ever the optimist, I think the forces pushing the SP down and the two sides to the triangle may now be less constraining since the div cut and relinquishing control to credit agencies and debt holders. FCF is now more assured for all other stakeholders. Its possible we may actually move sideways after going ex div and until the Liberty deal is approved and included in the outlook.

Marketscreener also confirming your analysis..
https://www.marketscreener.com/VODAFONE-GROUP-15867071/charts/

Hi Jack,
"zero hedge"
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here is the link again. Had a full stop at the end of the old link...

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-03/it-begins-multi-billion-hedge-fund-blocks-redemptions

Hi Jack,

Here is another article re Woodford distressed asset sales to fund redemptions. Its a red flag when marketing departments default to promote fund managers based on top quartile performance eg Bolton was another.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-03/it-begins-multi-billion-hedge-fund-blocks-redemptions.

Think I just saw 132..!!

Hi Jack,
'if 131 not broken before XD on 6th June, this might go nowhere fast'
===================

Exciting stuff.

Picked this link up this morning off RMG BB. Always good to have another reference to triangulate..
https://www.britishbulls.com/m/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=VOD.L

Thank you Jack,
'if 131 not broken before XD on 6th June, this might go nowhere fast'
===================

As you say, it comes down to our own styles and we own our decisions, no-one else.

Going nowhere fast with 6% income would be fine for me in retirement and longer term potential for some upside.

I too have chosen to crystallise losses on some stocks and reinvest lower down, like Barclays. Its opportunistic and 'event' driven but I estimate I have avoided more than 50% losses than if I just held. The logic being, eventually the cycle reverts, the indexes capitulate and I am better positioned for profit sooner. I guess I am shorting but not with cfds etc. IMO brexit, china us, qe/qt etc is a 'big short'. As I am retired, cost averaging from salary each month doesnt work for me but portfolio mix averaging does and is packed with adrenaline, an unfortunate addiction from a lifetime in international corporates...

All imo, GLA

Hi Jack,
'Until we break 131 resistance'
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I am getting more interested in technical analysis particularly as I make increasing paper losses this last 24 months across my portfolio particularly as div stocks and capital income ratios have moved more to the downside.

I had 131 as a support level, but the recent debt restructuring activity and the SP behaviour make me think 130 is the current resistance level. If I could be guarenteed 130 throughout a prolonged downturn (higher interest rates) then I would increase my holding in Vod to avoid proportionately more paper losses in other div stocks in my portfolio. As nothing is certain except it still trading in 5 years time, its difficult to see where to go except in cash. Bonds seem to me to be equally high risk if interest rates move higher. Like it or not, I think I am just going to ride it out, stay invested, but try to offset 'holding' costs by trading, say, 10% of the portfolio.

If you ever played cards, staying in when significantly down can bring you back to breakeven and then decide to exit. If you are ever lucky enough to get ahead, crystalise the profit.

This is just my opinion, and not designed to influence anyone but I am very happy to take any advice except sell VOD buy AIM stock..??

Todays RNS highlights the principal risk factors and uncertainties for VOD. Clearly a governance framework in place and adequate resources to support all the structured the scenarios:

The conclusions are:
'The Board has assessed the prospects and viability of the Group in accordance with c2.2 of the 2016 UK Corporate Governance Code, considering: the Group's strategy and business model; and the principal risks threatening the Group's future performance, solvency, liquidity and reputation. The assessment also ensured a review of the reasonableness of actions available to management in response to any risk or combination of risks materialising.

Total cash and facilities available of €13.6bn (pages 114 to 159) as of 31 March 2019, along with options available to reduce cash outgoings over the period considered, provide the Group with sufficient positive headroom in all scenarios tested. Reverse stress testing revenue and EBITDA over the review period also confirmed that the Group has sufficient positive headroom available to face uncertainty. The Board deemed the stress test conducted of the Group's viability to be adequate and therefore confirm that they have a reasonable expectation that the Group will remain in operation and be able to meet its liabilities as they fall due up to 31 March 2022.'

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=VOD&ArticleCode=tad6s6gv&ArticleHeadline=Annual_Financial_Report

'VOD up 3% in 4 days ...FTSE 100 down 1.6% in 4 days..'
Agree, good week for VOD

Gerry
'Buying back 1 percent or less debt that due shortly anyway.'

VOD had a zero rate bond auction last year and 50% took it up. The results from the current tender look like 40%.

Could conclude VOD debt holders more comfortable with VOD (?). Could this influence BBB credit rating or is a mechanical step in the programme that provides 'market transparency' but meaningless in itself until the Liberty deal and debt activity settled?