Member Info for Longish

'trust has gone'
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The new chairman, new brush, liberty clearance etc. Should come good with strong cultural leadership and no ambiguity.

Honestly Mikey, I just buy when it looks cheap...

Late night...
Bullish Engulfing

Could be hedging related to the pricing on $3.1Bn tender? Also coincident with the ECB asset purchase programme mentioned in earlier posts ie moving out of $ into € and lining up the Liberty bondholders who want to come across?

http://www.lsebn.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=VOD&ArticleCode=3dpf95rf&ArticleHeadline=VODAFONE_ANNOUNCES_PRICING_OF_TENDER_OFFERS

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/implement/omt/html/index.en.html

Hi Dan,
' Just hope all these candles will light up the vod sp'
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Yes me too.

Fork handles, is trench humour from a 2 Ronnies sketch I am sure you remember ;-)

Velo kindly provided a simple guide to interpreting candles in a weekend post and I am following with interest.
Todays candle suggests a change in momentum and is often the first candle of a reversal. So it will be interesting to test/ monitor the SP over the next few days.

Thank you Velo. I think we will see some recovery from here

Hi Velo
'Candlestick Flash cards........'

Is that a spinning top today?
•Broad classi?cation of any smaller than average candle body
•Can be black or white
•May have upper, lower shadow, or no shadow
•Indicates a change in momentum
•Often the ?rst candle of a reversal

Fleccy,
As soon as a quantum computer comes up for sale in John Lewis I will buy one and reverse my VOD buys...
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/time-reverse-quantum-computer-science-study-moscow-a8820516.html?amp

'We are now in an age of Dark pools and algorithmic trading, is there a place for charts in the modern trading world? '
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I think there is. But I agree, big data, high frequency trading and the emergence of AI, quantum computing etc moving the market mechanisms, liquidity etc along faster. Some research suggests that overall, institutional investors pursue a broad range of trading styles that, to a large extent, offset each other. I certainly know of mathematicians in big institutions who start with a hypothesis, model it, conform to house rules etc and then don't look at the screen until it has run its course.... result is a profit or a loss! A retail trader is a cork on that ocean for sure.

I certainly see new patterns and get new understanding from my own research and data as well as reconfirm already known patterns. Disruptive events do happen eg Trumpean tweetenomics! Concentrating events do happen eg regulation etc. All these events can be identified in a chart across a range of prices both historically and projected. They can be triangulated with other data, other charts, news, candles, performance indicators etc and can improve our investment insight overall and may provide new signals to buy, sell or hold over the short or long term.

Like you, I am sitting on a paper loss with VOD (for all of the above) and VOD is a long term hold ….

Thank you Velo, very generous. I listened to the introductory lesson and printed out the flashcards.

I will challenge myself to add candlesticks to my daily/weekly review which always includes the 20 day moving average, Bollinger bands (+ adjustment to number of days and standard deviation), MACD, Momentum and Cutler relative strength index.

Many years ago I was able to download the daily prices from the internet for any period for free. Drop that data in a spreadsheet and run 'arima' modelling techniques. Once I felt comfortable with the trends and understood them, I discovered somebody was already doing it for me with the MACD, my favourite drop down measure available on most sites.

Re Fridays Doji, the flashcard indicates bullish @support but bearish @resistance. In my market screener chart it shows support at 123 and resistance 138...so we are like the grand old duke of York, neither half way up the hill or half way down and a lot of white space all around... LoL!

The telecoms sector was generally down on Friday. Maybe Broadcom played into that. Yet VODs financial performance is less dependent on physical network elements these days having made the commercial transition to a service model based on all you can eat data ie non partisan from a consumer perspective (re Huawei etc)plus IFRS regulating how handset revenues are recognised.

Perhaps Woodwards performance this week has reminded investors (Weekend FT) of 'the illusion of liquidity' in the funds industry. A retail investor caught up with Woodward might want to move to cash from Vodafone (4 days of red candles)...many retail investors doing this in the search for income and/or avoiding further capital losses across the market..

But why the indecisiveness?
VOD has addressed debt, rebased the div, underpinned a sustainable FCF (€5.4Bn per annum), continuing tender/ debt auctions this week to find the market price. Perhaps it’s the ‘looking for a new Chairman’. On Friday, VOD announced (RNS) the AGM chaired by the outgoing Chairman. With 5G in auctions complete, launch dates whilst waiting for the Liberty clearance, its all down to Trust in the management team. Maybe Friday was a light bulb moment with no net -ve or +ve but set in the longer term political relationship with Europe and a new Chairman?

Whoever he or she is, if like Jansen at BT they buy into the shares, we should see a lift in SP too.

Hi Velo, good thinking. I tried twice already to reply and got 2 error codes. This is a test post...

While we are waiting for the Liberty clearance, I have been watching the candles.

I think we saw an inverted hammer yesterday which according to the textbook 'The Inverted Hammer candlestick formation occurs mainly at the bottom of downtrends and can act as a warning of a potential reversal upward. It is important to note that the Inverted pattern is a warning of potential price change, not a signal, in and of itself, to buy'

Of course it hasnt helped that VOD caused an internet outage for its international customers over the last 24 hours or so but assuming it is fixed now, we might see the SP recover lost ground next week.

This is just my amateur attempt to read the tea leaves, no advice intended, but any insights or other interpretations welcome?
GLA

'if the deal goes through that cost will be spread over a much larger client base too'
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Good point. From that perspective, the Liberty deal is not fully priced ie the debt has been priced but not the +ve incremental cash flows and lower average costs

Hi TLWilliams,
An interesting aspect of the german auction is that the headline €1.88Bn spent relates to 3.6 GHz – 90 MHz €1.073 billion, available following the auction with a licence term through to 2040 and 2100 MHz – 40 MHz for €806.5 million, comprising 2 x 15 MHz available from 2021 and 2 x 5 MHz available from 2026, both with licence terms through to 2040.

I am guessing the 2100 MHz – 40 MHz for €806.5 million doesnt come out of FCF until 2021 and 2026? So its as much a long term commitment from bothe parties asit is a 'headline' expense?

'good to get the spectrum but how does that fit with the average cost?'
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Good question. Reading fleccys analysis of 6G I am inclined to think there will be a 'bifurcation' between services requiring gigabits and services requiring terrabits and so there are 2 average costs. One leaning to consumer or retail and one to enterprise or wholesale? Depending how the EU plays out, that could be a consolidation of wholesale networks with individual retail business models playing out against local fiscal and regulatory rules, vat, inflation etc?

Thank God, Thank Budha, Thank Allah

GLA

'Vodafone Germany has achieved its overall auction objective and secured additional spectrum through to 2040. Vodafone Germany has acquired a total of 130 MHz, comprising:
3.6 GHz – 90 MHz for €1.073 billion, available following the auction with a licence term through to 2040.
2100 MHz – 40 MHz for €806.5 million, comprising 2 x 15 MHz available from 2021 and 2 x 5 MHz available from 2026, both with licence terms through to 2040. This provides continuity and expansion of existing services in this band.
Vodafone Group Chief Executive Nick Read commented: “Vodafone is committed to bring the full benefits of a digital society to Germany through our gigabit network including 5G. We believe it is important to have a balance between the price paid for spectrum and our strong desire to create an inclusive society through investment in mobile network coverage.”

https://www.vodafone.com/content/index/media/vodafone-group-releases/2019/vodafone-germany-acquires-spectrum-for-5g-services.html

Vodafone picking up the pace and competition pressure on 5G.

Vodafone Spain has confirmed that it will be launching the country's first commercial 5G network in 15 cities on 15 June.

https://www.telecompaper.com/news/vodafone-spain-to-switch-on-5g-network-in-15-cities-on-15-june--1296166?utm_source=headlines_-_english&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=11-06-2019&utm_content=textlink

VOD picking up its game in India

In the NL, Vodafone edges past KPN to take lead on Dutch postpaid retail market in Q1 too

https://www.telecompaper.com/news/vodafone-edges-past-kpn-to-take-lead-on-dutch-postpaid-retail-market--1296254?utm_source=headlines_-_english&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=11-06-2019&utm_content=textlink

'we could be looking at companies like VOD having to spend tens of billions again to upgrade to the next level & so on!'
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I think you are right Jack. The cycles are getting faster. In context of VOD and keeping it simple to the time between spectrum auctions, the management team tell us it is an average of 8 or 9 years at the moment. Of course currently the UK and Italy have launched 5G while Germany is still in the auction process and other '1st world' economies still dragging their feet as to the benefits while '3rd world' economies focussed on adopting 3G and 4G models introducing on line, internet banking benefits as basic economic building blocks for the poorest remote communities.

VOD has a direct investments in many of these economies requiring reinvestment for the next generation but is also adjusting its business model toward partnerships ie c29 partnerships operating in over 40 countries.

While VOD is a regulated business, it is a government tool for social and economic development bringing benefits to society. As a VOD shareholder I feel like I am paying a disproportionate amount toward this development in the poor SP performance. On the other hand, it is a closed system with only licensed access to the profits that may (will?) eventually reflect in a higher SP.

https://www.vodafone.com/content/index/what/partner-markets.html

Hence there are huge issues with technology and not all of them good by a long means.
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This article is part of the Forum Network series on Digitalisation and reflects on discussions at OECD Forum 2019.

The OECD can play an important role in helping swing the technology pendulum back to hope.

https://www.oecd-forum.org/users/112066-soumitra-dutta/posts/49712-the-technology-pendulum-from-hope-to-fear-and-back