Member Info for Longish

Reposted in case anyone missed it -;)
If you haven't listened to the conference call its worth it to get a better understanding and build your confidence around what is known and what has been said ...about 10mins.
CONFERENCE CALL DETAILS:
Replay (available until 16/12/2019)
Conference ID: 4454797
From the UK: 08082380667
Outside of the UK: +44 (0) 3333009785

If you haven't listened to the conference call its worth it to get a better understanding and build your confidence around what is known and what has been said ...about 10mins.
CONFERENCE CALL DETAILS:
Replay (available until 16/12/2019)
Conference ID: 4454797
From the UK: 08082380667
Outside of the UK: +44 (0) 3333009785

' let new CEO join'
if mcdade got found out at the weekend, then the hunt for an external ceo would take a while. But if selling the company is priority, maybe the CFO or someone with appropriate m&a experience internally can pick this up quickly and translate into an executable strategy

Nice chart E_AL. Trading triangle, price consolidation and chance of breakout if the great algorithm in the sky is smiling on us

'yes..and doesnt it strike you as strange'
I think thats how it often works. Old management team are stuck in emporers new clothes syndrome. Finally hits the fan and kitchen sinked for the turn around over next 3 years. We cant predict that kind of behaviour but clearly the old management havent been transparent

'The business now has a mcap of £562m, it's net assets are 2.8bln'
Net assets at $1.31/£ = c.£2.2Bn.

Impairment will be historic cost, not FCF, hence £270m interest is covered.

Its a gift as a takeover, say 70% of revenue £1.4Bn = 100p imo??

'Even a bid from china national oil company would be nice. 160p.'

..or Total. 165p

143 after 146 technical support..

So Saudi Aramco interests plus Iraq production cuts today vs Russia with its foot still on the pedal....its at least 50:50 for a bounce?

Suspect trade talk sentiment in the mix here with Uganda joint venture partners CNOOC, Total and the investment in electrification/ warming of heavy oil pipeline. Positive china us talks and this could move up firmly imo plus opec next week

'Longish what figure does that give you? 135p'
MRD, LoL yes if your required rate of return is 2.74%. DBNOs link to dcf use 14% less 1.2% growth to get 222p and consider all cashflows, not just distributions to shareholders via divs

DBNO
Another comparator is to divide the div by the effective interest rate to get the sp based on cashflows in perpetuity..

Marshall Wace reduced their short to 0.59% on 25 Nov. IMB bought 200k shares on 25 Nov..

Wace increased their short to 0.6% on 21 Nov..

Make sure you have sell orders at your target price, or high enough, so that your shares cant be lent to short sellers

Maybe. I think the valuation 3 years ago was a reaction to ultra low interest rates.
£100 received in perpetuity at 5% = a net current value of £2,000.
£100 received in perpetuity at 0.5% = a net current value of £20,000.
If that correlation still holds, it might be the SP has declined as cashflow from imb is being arbitraged as proxy for low fixed income returns. BATS also down, not as much...

Privatisation came about due to a perceived risk and under investment in infrastructure in the 1980s public sector. The competition model could be argued to have run its course with BT logically positioned to meet its regulatory and legal obligations and nothing more.

The FT Weekend has a nice cartoon with Boris calling 'get Brexit done' and Corbyn calling 'for the many', this resonates with the issues of providing hi speed BB to the many. Perhaps the answer is government subsidy for the uneconomic geographies (incl. 5G) rather than nationalisation. Remainers could argue for helicopter money?

Offshore corporate structures cant escape taxation where the service is provided and asset transfers offshore crystallise capital gains tax. The trump card (no pun intended) is Governments can seize assets at any time. Investors need to have interests in assets outside the home jurisdiction to reduce risk!

Just saw some output from the conservative manifesto which says they will keep the pensions triple lock (DUP will be happy), but reduce NIC, all of which still leaves open the issue of raising the state retirement age

If I vote labour I get my pension at age 66 and my BT investment linked to gilts in nationalisation..

If I vote conservative, I get my state pension at age [70 or 75 ref. ian duncan smith] but my BT investment grows, generating dividend income.

Anyone think the conservatives will leave the state pension retirement age alone? This would give me the best financial outcome, otherwise labour is a better outcome for me as pensioner and BT investor!

Agree it is higher risk than average. Return on investment cant be greater than the rate of growth forever... A new CEO arriving soon and we will have to wait and see. Regulatory headwinds have eased a little eg in US and sentiment changing eg uk (libdems) for cannabis. Governments everywhere ramping up fiscal policies and taxation from tobacco is a huge contribution for them. If the new ceo gets the mix right, the cashflow is likely sustainable for alot longer imo. While I want a long term income, I dont want anymore capital erosion offset by the div otherwise just stay in cash and risk missing the bounce..

Hi rich12345, 'You could sell and buy at a lower price and get a better divi'
We have a double bottom on the chart at the moment. Could day trade but better to use rsi, macd, stochastic etc than historic financial data