Member Info for Longish

The directors have a legal responsibility to exercise a system of internal controls which should pick up material forecasting errors in stakeholder reports. They should have operated a governance and risk management framework which would have picked up the risks around demand for gas from the ghana national gas company. McDade et al got the push because they clearly didnt bring any of these issues forward until December.

Its the reporting and treatment in the geo modelling/ forecasting that McDade had his hands on that are the problem. TLW now being ultra cautious. From this low base, a good commercial CEO can set an achievable stretch. Patience required imo

I bought some of them and will sell them back >100p LoL

and a few more @ 57.74. Thank you meerkat..

a few more @ 58.92

Oldy
'concept of opportunity cost'
..another is minimax regret which brings you back to buying TLW at 60p

60 is the industry average PE...SLA et al still holding 50%+ of holding before the div, CEO and forward guidance news. Just needs news on ceo, forward guidance or may move on bid and 'off the shelf ceo'

I guess that's why Mr Dossou-Aworet, M&G et al increased their holdings to more than 7% and 5% respectively. I guess SLA still holding more than 50% of their holding (previously 7.03%) for the same reason.
I am with SLA, M&G and Mr 7%
Good luck this week

I guess it depends how the Iranians escalate. Watching Bloomberg, US seem to be expecting a cyber attack. Russia, Iraq, Iran et al would do well out of rising poo imo. US fracking industry wouldn't do too bad either

At least one analyst sees a scenario that could send Brent crude as high as $150 per barrel
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/what-us-iran-tensions-could-mean-for-oil-prices-193905568.html

The COO commented on the RNS
"The Carapa-1 result is an important exploration outcome with positive implications for both the Kanuku and Orinduik blocks. While net pay and reservoir development at this location are below our pre-drill estimates, we are encouraged to find good quality oil which proves the extension of the prolific Cretaceous play into our acreage. We will now integrate the results of the three exploration wells drilled in these adjacent licences into our Guyana and Suriname geological and geophysical models before deciding the future work programme."

Maybe we get an early view on the geo model and where the capex is going to be used to maximise returns. That would add some value without stealing a new CEOs thunder...

Think iraqi army scorched earth policy (1990) in Kuwait added c$8 pb inflation adjusted

Thats interesting Tornado.
'Our current valuation of core assets, at $60 per barrel, is 144p per share. This suggests Tullow is trading at just 40% of its core assets, assuming a long-term, $60-per-barrel oil price is appropriate'

We're busy doin' nothin'
Workin' the whole day through
Tryin' to find lots of things not to do
We're busy goin' nowhere
Isn't it just a crime
We'd like to be unhappy, but
We never do have the time

Some big buys yesterday 59p and today up to and including 1m @62.3p. I am only guessing but SP seems to be continuing its consolidation around the 60p industry average PE. Think a +ve management and strategy update will get us into the gaps. Seems to be less risky after carapa and iran but requiring patience …?

Agree management problem has to be sorted quickly. JPM and Dorothy might be good at M&A but a good industry ceo would be perfect operationally and strategically. Unfortunately they take time to get on board

Topped up a few yesterday and more than a little surprised by the Iran news. Just shows you have to remain invested

Agree. Has to be value accretive vs a duster. Some big buys today at 59p, joining M&G, Mr 7% etc

One thing I know from making the same/ new mistakes time and again is that a portfolio recovers and often surprising....
Topped up a few more for the average but missed this mornings gift...

'Tullow has c.$175m CapEx from Dec update not applied'
Capex seems likely to remain on hold until a CEO is in place or takeover management. 60p is the industry average PE. Still a waiting game imo