Member Info for Longish

Hi rich12345, you made a mistake with your earnings analysis and thats why the dividend is adequately covered. Follow this link and download the FY19 slides and slide number 29 in particular. You forgot depreciation and a few small items
https://www.imperialbrandsplc.com/investors/results-centre.html
https://www.imperialbrandsplc.com/investors/results-centre.html

Albany I am sure we are all experiencing the same. The SP jumps around so much, I cant believe either side of the trades gets it right every time. I started buying at £31 thinking it was cheap LoL

Todays closing price is around technical support which has been tested a few times now. Hopefully some kind of a recovery soon. 1860's possible short term from here.

Agree with Banaman, the SP behaviour is odd. Traditional correlations like forex not holding up etc which makes me think its the likes of Marshalls quant strategy vs Woodford/ Hargreaves funds forced selling and buying. Of course I am just guessing but staying positive and happy to have locked in Q3 div..

Crikey, what a day. Must admit I expected a bit more upside from US news yesterday but as we visited a range of prices during the day I guess the short interest got a %.

Hope the short interest goes away as sentiment continues to increase to the upside

There was a correction rns. The SP went ex div today. You would need to have held the share after cob yesterday. If you bought today, you wont get q3 div but imo you get a great price lol. Q4 has been declared and to be approved at agm in Feb.

Crikey. What does that do to the open, ex div...?

Strange price action today. Think its combination of woodfords exit, purchase own shares, management buy and range trades ..topped up a few more, 4% div for Q3!?

Rich, adjjusted eps is cica 273+. Cash spent on brands etc are sunk costs and continue to generate cash for the div.

So 106 matches the historic cost to the div not the future cost.

The US is currently -ve on vaping because of illegal products. I expect the US will come good once trade deals and regulatory alignment are agreed. Rest of the world working together on the positive benefits of vaping etc imo...

Perfect. He gets 4% div on Q3 and 4% on Q4. +ve evidence based vaping research now emerging to counter illegal product misuse and the negatives from that. Pretty sure the Chancellor will want the revenues to pay for post election fiscal policies too...

I guess they took it out on 31 Oct at 1692, which is technical support. Will be in the mix of their quant strategy and a hedge imo

Fantastic H2E

..so it goes ex div next Thursday 21 Nov, 72p, is that right?

Çan only speculate. Probably part of a wide spread in a quant strategy. Seems like they are contrarian...

I guess that relates more to the drop in SP from £40. Is it still a value trap at £18 for a new entrant?

Have'nt seen a RNS for transactions in own shares since Friday..?

I am not complaining :-)
Velo helped me out on Vod with an interesting training doc so cant complain. I am a PI..

'I would expect this to go over 1800 in the next few days'
...but you didnt say how many times ;-)

Has the Q4 dividend been DECLARED?
Perhaps the Q4 div still has to be approved by shareholders in the AGM which is [1st week Feb 2020] ie it has been proposed by the Directors/ Board and WILL be approved by the shareholders..

I get the theory but in reality many of us have lost capital on IMB (and BATS..) in the last 18 months that exceeds the benefit of 12 months div. Debt payment/ recovery/ rollover is not at risk and interest easily covered from very sticky cashflows imo. If the general broker consensus is correct, the SP should recover and the div % will adjust lower. In that timeframe, current intiatives will execute like proceeds from the cigar business. Probably more regulatory, fiscal and tariff clarity with IMB continuing to influence that agenda internationally

Cant speculate what a new CEO might do but the new chairman Thérèse Esperdy has great experience and relationships with institutional investors and is focussed on creating value for SHAREHOLDERS..

' that won't last will it?'
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..'GBP 200 million share repurchase programme' so its whatever their timeline is I guess..
RBC were quick to reiterate their target today, perhaps caught short, so plenty to think about

Wonder if the transactions in own shares yesterday played into today..550k versus the daily run around 100k?
Nice SP lift today with div declaration somewhere in the pricing.... I can still see 1930. Interesting to see the new ceo and strategy as to where next.