RE: One stands out23 Dec 2021 13:44
Looks like Forky can't even let it go for Xmas, still trying to trade away.
*October was a CASH FLOW positive month. Bond in that month in the UK at 127% of pre-pandemic levels. Started a UK renaissance imho.
*November not so good in terms of recorded Box Office (US Figures only) - BUT and it is a VERY BIG BUT, there were a lot of Spiderman ticket pre-sales that went through the tills prior to the end of November. Imho probably another cash-flow positive month.
*December has seen Spiderman No Way Home attendances off the chart and the cumulative audiences are continuing with extremely strong numbers and you would expect it to achieve 2.5X to 3X its opening in the theatrical window. maybe a little more. Then you have all the other movies takings for what will be 29 days worth of films to add. 7 new films for instance open in the US this weekend. School holidays as well. This one imho will result in a highly cash flow positive month. Happy to tot it up.
*Great month also the month of December for the fact some films have opened on a Wednesday for an extended opening weekend gives us in effect another weekends takings. Knock of Boxing Day and Xmas Day and you still have equivalent of a 5 weekend month. (See previous post)
* Did I miss out Gift Card sales on top. Don't underestimate these.
Then you have concession sales (will be boosted by mask wearing exemption), advertising revenues (definitely more and varied content), online booking fees etc....
Yes hard to work out profits but these are Positive Unknowns not negative ones.
Full quarter for me will be highly Free Cash Flow positive.
Happy to also just pick you up two of the other points you try to make as a "known"
- Covid fear. That isn't a known. Why? Because it hasn't put anybody off seeing Spiderman - GLOBALLY. 2nd highest opening of all time (against pre-pandemic figures as well), breaking records all around the globe, midweek numbers still huge and on course for what will be a very quick $1 Billion. Then now you now have have confirmed news resonating of "Milder symptoms" (KNOWN) and South Africa past it's peak (KNOWN). So I'd say presently diminishing and will continue to do so. Also if you are replacing the dominant Delta variant with a lesser threat then there is less to fear.
- CP damages. Topline known. The appeal gives scope to dramatically reduce that. In any case about a 9 months to a year away.
Merry Xmas to everyone and hopefully 2022 is a year for substantial recovery and a New Year resolution or two off some.
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