All you really need to know.
Market Cap: £270 Million
Ugandan Cash Inbound: $575 Million + oil production royalties when producing.
70 Licence Interests in total in 15 countries.
Producing circa 75,000 barrels per day at $57 per barrel hedged on 60% of that.
rugs, I just did at 242 and delighted with that. For once a school run acted in my favour
It seems a gross overreaction for what is essentially a temporary situation what is only one part of one country and in a regions where it looks like the HQ serves 10 surrounding countries including Ghana.
Chairman and the CEO, It's the big institutions that will drive the change.
BP at Sub £2.00.
One part of me sensed that whoever was shorting BP was taking it there but the reality of it is that it didn't even get to that level previously even on the Gulf of Mexico spill.
So somewhere in there is value and an 8% dividend.
A one-liner from the Interims that may help you gauge the overreaction here.
The Group’s Africa segment operates in over 40 countries and contributed 27% of the Group’s total revenue in the period."
Today's fall wiped approx 20% of value off NETW based on possibly the events in 1 country, that are temporary in nature and will blow over.
Nigeria is one of effectively 6 regional HQ's if you include Dubai and the situation in Nigeria will is only temporary and will pass.
For this to justify a 20% fall in the companies share price it would need to wipe out all commerce and transactions in all the countries that the regional HQ in Nigeria serves and with that being for a full 365 days of the year.
I've convinced myself into buying some more myself tomorrow.
I'm sorry but I am not buying into the Nigeria situation being somehow responsible for a near 20% fall in today's share price. Though deplorable that situation does not stop people going out and having to shop, spending and paying by card.
These positions I feel are always a sideshow to actually what is going on beneath the 0.5% hard deck as these ones rarely rarely change and some will actually be used tactically to gain a holding position. It's 0.5% to declare on the short positions side but 3% to notify on the holdings side.
They all got hammered today and there should be significantly more to come. Untimely for Whitebox's increase which just shows how uninformed they can be. The Pierre Jessau Total Ugandan Managers article was there for all to see.
Its these unduly oversold shares that rebound best.
scaredycat - what shorts would you like to see closing. Are you talking about those that notify the FCA if they are over 5%?
Or are you talking about all the retail spread betters like DubaiDave that got thumped and burned by todays 10a.m. RNS. The same happened for all those with CFD's that were betting on the downside. The same for all those with positions under 0.5%.
It doesn't matter if it was any of these 3 types of unpublished positions or indeed if it was any dodgy positions they all took the same near 50% hit. I mention dodgy positions for those @PMO know that recently there was a Chinese institution fined £900k for holding an undeclared 16.9% equivalent short position that they hadn't declared.
Irrespective of the type they would all have taken the same hit today.
Things have now turned massively favourable for TLW and the new CEO with a 10a.m. RNS is showing he knows what is going on here and that he means business in turning the SP around.
He is now making things highly unpredictable for any further short positions and also he is showing that he is quietly and industriously getting on with re-establishing value here.
This gained good momentum after the RNS and rightfully so. Our MM's needed stock and took it down to 20p just to see how many shares they could transact.
You don't need to be a professor in maths to work out that Tullow is still massively undervalued.
Its market cap tonight is only £292 Million.
Today's RNS is the sale of a Ugandan asset for $500 Million + a further $75 Million at FID + also production royalty payments from Total.
The Ugandan asset is just 1 of some 70 licence interests that TLW have in 15 countries.
It is also producing circa 75,000 barrels of oil per day and has a shrewd hedge in place whereby it is getting $57 per barrel on 60% of its production.
% It has just passed its debt test with its lenders (RBL)
% $500M moneys to imminently to clear in Tullows bank a/c.
% Had $500M headroom prior to the proceeds from the sale of the Ugandan asset.
% Q3 numbers are due about the 2nd week in November (tbc) Oil is twice the price it was in Q2.
% 25th November is Capital Markets Day for the new CEO to unveil his asset maximisation plan.
% There are also a further $500M of asset sales being targetted.
% Next RBL is in January at the companies request.
It was 40p very recently and it should head back there.
I put it in simple terms with recent happenings and what is on the horizon.
The chartists and technically minded will probably skip all that and say "Gap filled" this afternoon.
Tullow is on the turnaround imo and it is probably best to get in whilst the share price is only just over 20p.
315p yesterday to 254 to then back up to 290's to then back down to 252p. Just astonishing.
Reason - There is no evident reason or indeed accompanying volume as key markets are outwith the UK, US or Europe.
Happy to accumulate and scratch my head in amazement.
I am not aware of any reason for this drop and just bought some more.
If it gets to the BoD having to issue another "we know of no reason" then it is getting plain stupid. They did it only a few weeks ago. Then released improving numbers as their markets opened up and 5 Directors bought their own shares.
They operate in the Middle east and Africa and are not UK, US or Europe based.
If it is not a staged fall then at least have the decency to let us all accumulate in good volumes. They put it to NT for about £4k so that probably tells you all you need to know.
I bought for the long term but maybe it is the converse of what you are saying and they actually want to bring in daytraders?
If someone is posting Fool website links on here it shows their maturity. Had it on Cine and laidback will vouch for it. It is akin to a website full of bloggers who two days on the trot can't post the same thing and if you had listened to one word they said then you would not have doubled your money.
Best ignored like most troll posters and yes the level of expertise on their matches Dubai Dave.
Whatever business the MM's were conducting this afternoon seems done. For me they let some good friends in about 20.5p for about 15M to 20M and they were either straight buys or short positions closing.
"With all the Government-related conditions to closing having been satisfied, Tullow expects the transaction to close in the coming days after completing certain customary pre-closing steps with Total. Tullow will provide a further update once the transaction has closed and funds have been received. On closing, Tullow will receive $500 million consideration and a further $75 million when a Final Investment Decision is taken on the development project. In addition, Tullow is entitled to receive contingent payments linked to the oil price payable after production commences."
"Is there any possibility that this could fall through "
May I suggest you read the RNS.
Probably one of the same paid to post shorters who said it was already factored in when Ierre Jessau the Total General Manager in Uganda in an article at the weekend said. All hurdles overcome and only a matter of days.
Guess what it was only a couple of days.
If you are frightened of your own shadow then maybe investing is not for you.
Read what the RNS says and work out that there is $500 Million followed by another $75 Million at FID that will be passing to Tullow.
That is nearly twice its present market cap.
That is just one asset and we have interests in 70 licences in 15 countries presently.
Plus an oil producing business producing approx 75,000 barrel of oil per day, with 60% of that hedged at $57 per barrel.
It has a long way to go yet and the new CEO has been impressive thus far.
Annoying though it is I guess we have to endure the market makers manipulating the price to let their buddies close up their short positions. The plus side is that once its done then the sky becomes cloudless and blue.