Member Info for LadySonia

Is 20p best/worst or a mid case valuation - based on ST2 dilution + higher interest loans?

Share price has halved, presumably based on predicted number of shares to double (or slightly less than double + higher interest loans)

Nobody knows? But the SP is so stuck at 20p one could argue that it *could* still be 20p after ST2 is announced?

I don't remember the "77%" either....

But I may have missed it. Was it in any CPR?

Have I missed anything? Does anyone know any reasons why SP has risen so much over the past week?

Thanks Genghis,

I'm impressed I remembered that - as a point of interest, it increases to $23 with the increase in price due to the revenue linked incentive for the provision of the FPSO.

I think $21 - $23 was the offical cost.

Edison had break even $29

"Our valuation is sensitive to oil price assumptions (base case Edison $70/bbl real long-term Brent), capex cost estimates for EPS and full field development and delivery schedule. We estimate that the EPS phase of development reaches break even (NPV12.5=0) at $29/bbl Brent (long-term). Our base RENAV of 81.0p/share would fall to 68.6p/share under a long-term $60/bbl oil price and rise to 93.1p/share under a long-term $80/bbl oil price scenario. EPS volumes remain unhedged (assuming that modelled farm-out terms are unchanged)."

Thurs 8am - 4pm , 2m waves, <2m swell Windy.com

If that's not suitable then it'll be into March.

Get the snooker on eurosport player - it gives you a great "sportsmoat"
Rope, Weather, PoO, we can do nothing about..

BTW:
Registration opens today for:
https://www.kivi.nl/afdelingen/offshore-techniek/activiteiten/activiteit/redeployment-of-aoka-mizu-fpso
Redeployment of Aoka Mizu FPSO

Page 8, Q4 investor presentation:
Q3/Q4 2019
Gas Export Solution / Debottlenecking Target 40,000bpd throughput.

Hopefully a simple question, but how will the Gas be exported, I think it was JayKay who kindly set me straight about WoSP before, but how does the gas get from the AM back down to the WoSP?

Is the plan to send the gas via AM back down to Buoy and via a pipe connected to it, and off to join the WoSP?

BW AM Vid from YouTube: https://youtu.be/MjtYjiGmDIc?t=63

Nice animation of dropping the old buoy

Have set limit order at 43p for 45 days would be nice to sell trading pot and use some CGT allowance by Apr 5 rather than next tax year. (Optimism)

Hi Thorpe,

re: "increasingly likely that stage 2 is not going to happen"
What is your evidence for this?

Have you read any Dan McCrum articles?

Looking further ahead, any oilmen able to comment on if it could be nearer 6 or 12 months before the all important RNS? (Are HUR being conservative with the 12?)

[ '12 months after FOIL' could run into 2020/21 tax year. ]

https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/~/media/Files/H/Hurricane-Energy/documents/presentations/hurricane-roadshow-presentation-secured.pdf

"After an initial 6-12 months of stable production, bottom-hole pressure analysis should provide clarity on whether the reservoir is behaving in line with based case reserve assumptions"

"An absence of sustained formation water during the first 12 months will remove extreme negative cases from consideration."

FJ40, That's the one!
They're onto the marine traffic site too, waiting for an 1800 tonne TBM.

If anyone is suffering withdrawal from shipwatching, there is a FTSE 250 fertilizer mine who have a nice piece of kit on its way via Rotterdam. Also reminded me of 'The Rotterdam Effect'.

Cheers Dive/Prover, re TO Leader,

Basic question but, I was not invested when previous wells were drilled, how long should the horizontal wells on GWA/Lincoln each take to drill?

windy.com

Weds 20th
2m waves later in the day. Looks like the best ww at present.

Whilst rope talk continues I'm keeping an eye on Transocean Leader AIS...

AWK
It was a genuine question, the last I read was on EnergyVoice:

"Mr Trice said: “We have a drilling programme mapped – three GWA wells for 2019. If they are successful we expect a further three wells will be drilled, giving a six-well stock for a future GWA development. Then we’ll turn our attention to the Halifax-Lancaster structures.

“GWA drilling is scheduled to start in February-March."

SG,

What's also concerning is SXX will have best part of 1.5km of 'rope' on their winding engine. 2/3rds of my portfolio is hanging by a thread/rope.

On a serious note, is GWA drilling underway yet?

Wellwell, re: clamps,

If you go to 2 minutes in this vid on YouTube it shows the clamps in the animation of the AokaMizu with the "Bluewater Arctic Turret" in it's previous incarnation - different turret/buoy combo now obvs, but fundamentals apply?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MjtYjiGmDIc

Bloobird,

If Dr Trice ends up on "Who wants to be a millionaire" we're all in the sh**, unless he's drumming up a bit of extra dosh to pay for some new rope.

FWIW, I'd suggest option E) and it would be "the most heavily tabooed word of all English words"