18p < > 381p16 Dec 2018 23:35
So to summarise some of the forecasts:
# A well known broker has HUR SP between 18p and 381p
# And a well know magazine has/had Oil between $60 and $100
Based on this you can create whatever opinion you want.
If you want to draw attention to yourself on a BB, be really pessimistic, and if you want to cheer yourself up pick out the bull case.
FT
"Morgan Stanley started coverage of Hurricane Energy with an “overweight” rating. It put a base-case valuation of 68p on the North Sea oil prospector, against a bull and bear case net asset value of 381p and 18p a share, respectively.
“Hurricane carries high geological risk and has no near-term catalysts. Yet, there is a realistic bull case for the shares to be around seven times higher on a two-year view,” said Morgan Stanley.
Hurricane has an estimated 2.3bn barrels of oil in geologically complex rock, known as fractured basement reservoirs, but doubts about recovery mean just 45m barrels are being priced in, said the broker. Tests of Hurricane’s early production system are due to begin at its Lancaster field early next year, with clear results not expected for many months, so investors need to be patient, said the broker. Failure of the early production system would force “a total reset of current plans”, and success can quickly move the valuation towards likely production of 785m barrels, it argued.
Morgan Stanley advised buying “given the 27 per cent upside in the base even without the value of contingent resources, a significant nine-times skew between bull case upside and bear case downside, and potential for value to be realised suddenly”. But “with the wide range of valuation outcomes and uncertainty even in the base case, we think assigning a price target is not relevant at this time.”
Investors Chronicle:
"Demand growth forecasts are also being cut. In October the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the higher average price of oil and trade tensions will knock demand next year. On the technical front, oil turned down from long-term trend resistance and this has brought larger declines into focus.
The question will be whether, if faced with oil heading back towards $60 a barrel for Brent – a level that is uneconomic for most of Opec – do we have the cartel seek to further control output?
Falling demand, pent-up and rising supply in the US and Opec stepping in to plug any loss from Iran suggest that we are likely to see $60 before we see $100."
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