Just as an aside,
Whilst there seems to be some anxiety with HUR, which I am treating as mainly a result of the wider market malady, it's always worth reviewing one's own motivation and pshyche. Whilst considering this, also consider some of the traits listed at the end of the following article, for those who reach the top of the pyramid, anyone spring to mind?
https://www.simplypsychology.org/maslow.html
Characteristics of self-actualizers:
1. They perceive reality efficiently and can tolerate uncertainty;
Behavior leading to self-actualization:
(b) Trying new things instead of sticking to safe paths;
(c) Listening to your own feelings in evaluating experiences instead of the voice of tradition, authority or the majority;
(d) Avoiding pretense ('game playing') and being honest;
(e) Being prepared to be unpopular if your views do not coincide with those of the majority;
(f) Taking responsibility and working hard;
I'll leave it there..
Whilst on the subject of staff, can any oilmen comment on the likelihood of Dr T or Neil Platt actually being on the AM for buoy hookup, or would they wait until some point mid/end of commissioning?
davidblack,
"apparently there appears to have been some upgrades whilst at Rotterdam which hopefully will expand production from the 17,000 bpd in the commentaries from 2016/7 to the 40,000"
This would make sense, are you able to quote your sources for this?
Agreed, HUR have been a bit cagey, but it's given some of us an opportunity to top up and a nice price.
Tug right next to AM now
"MULTRATUG 16"
In one interview with Dr Trice, Malcy said something to the effect "You might still be in business doing other things"
https://youtu.be/QGF_G-U2qtk?t=988
Now call me a cynic, but what's to say that Malcy isn't asking pre agreed questions, much like the Edison video clips where the questions have been set to prompt for a specific answer?
One thought I have is: Would Dr Trice consider it mission accomplished if HUR sell of 50-70% and gets the Industry recognition he'll deserve or would success on GLA/GWA be lighting the fuse to go do more exploration?
Also topped up today, my hunch is that Mr Market is spread so far and wide that he's not done full research on HUR and consequently being a bit generous by offering them at such a price..
Lancaster is low sulphur unlike middle east oil, so the 38api from Rona is going be part of the cleaner future when ships start using lower sulphur fuel etc.
I've filtered NigWit but his effect on this BB is tiresome.
Last week I watched 44871 'black 5' burning 9 tonnes of coal - a fantastic sight.
Am I condoning the destruction of the planet?
Hardly. If anyone is concerned about oil they need to look at what they put on their plate.
Thankyou Amaja, much obliged.
Hi Amaja,
I don't think you can.
Do you have onedrive/dropbox/apple storage you can upload to there and then share the link with us?
Thanks,
LS
So to summarise some of the forecasts:
# A well known broker has HUR SP between 18p and 381p
# And a well know magazine has/had Oil between $60 and $100
Based on this you can create whatever opinion you want.
If you want to draw attention to yourself on a BB, be really pessimistic, and if you want to cheer yourself up pick out the bull case.
FT
"Morgan Stanley started coverage of Hurricane Energy with an “overweight” rating. It put a base-case valuation of 68p on the North Sea oil prospector, against a bull and bear case net asset value of 381p and 18p a share, respectively.
“Hurricane carries high geological risk and has no near-term catalysts. Yet, there is a realistic bull case for the shares to be around seven times higher on a two-year view,” said Morgan Stanley.
Hurricane has an estimated 2.3bn barrels of oil in geologically complex rock, known as fractured basement reservoirs, but doubts about recovery mean just 45m barrels are being priced in, said the broker. Tests of Hurricane’s early production system are due to begin at its Lancaster field early next year, with clear results not expected for many months, so investors need to be patient, said the broker. Failure of the early production system would force “a total reset of current plans”, and success can quickly move the valuation towards likely production of 785m barrels, it argued.
Morgan Stanley advised buying “given the 27 per cent upside in the base even without the value of contingent resources, a significant nine-times skew between bull case upside and bear case downside, and potential for value to be realised suddenly”. But “with the wide range of valuation outcomes and uncertainty even in the base case, we think assigning a price target is not relevant at this time.”
Investors Chronicle:
"Demand growth forecasts are also being cut. In October the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the higher average price of oil and trade tensions will knock demand next year. On the technical front, oil turned down from long-term trend resistance and this has brought larger declines into focus.
The question will be whether, if faced with oil heading back towards $60 a barrel for Brent – a level that is uneconomic for most of Opec – do we have the cartel seek to further control output?
Falling demand, pent-up and rising supply in the US and Opec stepping in to plug any loss from Iran suggest that we are likely to see $60 before we see $100."
Ad, Ricfle,
"I don't know what they are, but that's doubtless what's being done."
Might it just be a case of Dr Trice deliberately manipulating the timing of events so that he "has to be on site" during the hookup thereby being absent from a Christmas dinner which he'd rather not endure?
I subscribe to Investor's Chronicle, have a direct debit to Greenpeace, and a decent chunk of Hurricane Energy shares, and in 2019 intend to cancel IC subscription, buy more Hur shares, and suspect climate change will be one of the less prominent factors affecting the SP.
Personally....More concerned with CGT when HUR go over 60p.
Robots are not doing our ironing yet either....
Wessex, do you think that Amaja's date of Weds, 14:20 was the just the provisional departure date then and it'll be brought forward?
(Hoping to get a top up in before hookup RNS.....)
fitguy5,
windy.com
Dr T has previously mentioned "Weather forecasting for West of Shetland is generally excellent within a 5-7 day window." So if the AM is ready in the next 48 hours there is a possibility...
One caveat...."We need six hours to achieve hook-up … 12 hours tops" may mean that they won't commence hookup unless >= 12 hours of <2m waves and/or swell..
Some 2m swell/waves from Friday 0000 to 0900 next week, can AM get there in time?
Maybe Santa is actually a "Maverick" with a PhD in Geology and has part exed his sleigh for a FPSO?
With lower volumes though, will we not see increased volatility and therefore an opportunity to top up?
Yes, agreed, 19th is a red herring...
I think 19'th was from Hannam report, it was a typo, they put Rotterdam sailaway Dec 19, they meant Dec 18, as in 2018, and someone has taken it as Dec 19th?
pm, i think this was a typo in the Hannam report?
Page 7
"Dec '19: final work on Lancaster FPSO – After the Aoka Mizu arrives in
Rotterdam in late November, the final work scope on the FPSO is to be completed
in Rotterdam and the vessel should be ready to go the Lancaster field before the
turn of the year."
They meant "Dec 18" ?
- All of the other dates were much less specific
Thanks Aduk, Biffadog,
Re:Dayrate, FWIW, it does look like AM was on dayrate previously, (Nexen)
https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2015/03/12/714826/0/en/Significant-Contract-Amendment-signed-for-Aoka-Mizu-FPSO.html
I remember Dr Trice saying AM had 97% uptime, and it's also good to know that: "The Bluewater operated FPSO has, over the last two to three years, been one of the best performing FPSO’s in the North Sea in production efficiency and health, safety and environmental (HSE) metrics."
Re: Sea State, the AM is fitted with AHMS, Advisory Hull Monitoring System, a structural monitoring system which will monitor environmental conditions including waves,the structural responses of the hull, mooring and turret, and the vessel’s motions.