Member Info for KumKuat

Crude will average more thann$110 for March and $100+ is here for a while yet !

Off topic, RRoy e just spiked to 110 :) and all my other plays are up even HAY following Pkacing yesterday !! the runt of the litter is Casper and tats the biggest investment :(

Cmon Clive, waited long enough.

https://astanatimes.com/2022/03/kazakhstan-considers-alternative-routes-for-oil-transportation/

Yep, widows and orphans but take out geo-political but fundamentally stronger than ever. Buying in the ascendency today which is good to see. If there wasn't confirmation from Caspian HQ that oil sales not affected, i suspect that you'd have seen far more selling today, instead more buys than sells.

Needs positive operational news not Divis. Yep, good FY accounts with good commentary/guidance on H1 earnings will draw attention especially with Divi to follow BUT i want to see more successful drilling, we all do.

SP down, great time for a top up, rude not too ;)

Afternoon DD,

According to Clive they're not using CPC but it would've been useful to advise which route they are using but going through Russian pipes. He's stating they have other routes and i'm not overly concerned re us not being able to sell oil at good prices.

Tokayev will have his challenges now and he's obviously trying to walk that tightrope by keeping every international investor community happy, especially the big ones. Stopping 60% of Kazakh big field oil is hurting the big players like Chevron and Exxon but also hurting Kazmunaigaz and the additional tax revenues. Putin is hurting Kaz with this move and i suspect our China, ****stan, India and Russia could be benefiting in the short term.

A real mess and the Ukrainian population the real losers.

I believe they have other options too, probably far easier with only 2400bopd v 1.2m !

I suspect domestic oil price is going to be capped as Kaz will now be under pressure with loss of revenue unless other routes for big field oil are utilised.

Crazy times.

Ditto

Thank for the email

We don't use that route.

If the Russian pipeline network we use becomes unavailable / uneconomic we could send the oil out via Uzbekistan or Azerbaijan.

Clive

Yep, no chance of Germany banning oil/gas, that would take Europe into a deep recession, fact. Those less dependant, an easy decision but for others like Germany, they have to wean off whilst looking for alternatives.

Crude back above $120 as sabre rattling intensifies. Average price of crude likely to be above $115 for March ! an don't see this coming back unless supply increases dramatically.

Joe,

Much that i'm anti Divi at this stage of their evolution, they first mentioned the plan some time ago and they weren't banking on $100+ crude. I agree that the cash generation comes from production success and i'm sure that KO and co aren't in it for the divis !! Every penny worth £10m to the KO clan and i hope we all agree that's what the plan is, just need to get a move on to exploit the situation whilst oil price is sky high.

3 buses ! Mustn't remind me of the 11/17-2/18 IPs, fluent Carverspeak at it's best. If my memory serves me correctly, page 3 and the buses, A5 flowing at 3500bopd after the sidetrack before another Ginsters got stuck ...lol. 24 shallows to be drilled at the rate of 3 per qtr, lifetime well cash generation projections at $25-$45, that's laughable at current prices.

Next qtr is very important and i'm expecting a shedload of news, hoping that it's the positive kind.

Adrianz, who have you been talking to ;)

JoeSoap,

Interesting observations but with our Casper, we rarely have enough of the info. If you were pushed to make a call on this ie developments this year, a bit like Putin's storybook, how do you see it playing out.

Don’t believe our Clive, Shin and Limerick will line that idea ! probably not the Al Marris either as I’m sure they’d expect more than single digit interest payments on their $9m purchase.

Sp disconnected fro value and geopolitical tensions not helping. Have so many assets to convert to value and that’s why the frustration on the operational stagnation.

It will ping but the wait is tiresome.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CASP/operational-financial-and-shareholding-update-k9unj2ufj54uh3f.html

This communication was on 22/12 so due a proper quarterly update this week or next. 142 being tested, 152 next plus first horizontal on SY which if successful, would add to proven reserves. A7 probably well underway and 802 to follow in short order in compliance with regulatory requirements. They'll then have 2 1/4 years to work on all deeps to see if they can get them all to flow.

Crude tracking back to $115 and at that price we're generating c $80m pa compared to $10m in 2020 !! Transitioned from loss to profitable company and the 2021 FY accounts in May will show a improvement but 2022 H1 commentary will be fantastic aided by $100+ Crude. Would be nice to double the production with A8 flowing and building with the 15 additional shallows promised, probably more dependant on SY next well outcome.

No excuses for lack of drilling.

DD, yep, agreed re the Al Marri play, my thinking too. It makes absolutely no sense not to accelerate operations but summat not right if 142 was held up and little else gone on this year from an operational perspective ?

Can't fund much on Kaz oil exports outside link below. Hopefully our oil is being sold at export prices and no interruption re sanctions as per Clive's last note.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/production/kazakhstan-hopes-caspian-pipeline-sanctions-waiver-will-leave-export-route-open/2-1-1181751

History now, but the repayment of the loan was a fair better option for shareholders but this was always getting signed off. $6.2m of debt when we are receiving $6m pm ?

They sold the divis as a way of getting other investors involved ? I'm not buying that as no funds are getting involved here and the Al Marri acquisition ? i'm still sceptical as the sale, especially as there hasn't been anymore more operational news that would warrant that decision.

Stuff the Divis for now and save it for the time when we are operationally solid, producing the 10000+ bopd that the company has positioned. Use the excess cash to accelerate operations and look to acquire other assets when the financials are strong enough to do so. Get involved as a minority stakeholder in an offshore play with the barge etc. The thought of divis now is for one reason only and that's to feed the bigger shareholders ie the CP & WCP.

Time to start doing what they're paid to do and drill loads of bleedin holes and build production !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Joe Soap,

Yep, this is Caspian ! and understanding fluent Carverspeak is something that i haven't got to grips with yet.

The last RNS was brief to say the least. 142 testing interrupted by the January shutdown but that was over 10 weeks ago ?? No other work done on A8 and only preparatory work for first SY horizontal. At a time when they're probably generating $6m pm and no debt, they have slowed down ops instead of accelerating them ?

Weather has been above average and not windy as per some winters that have meant shutdowns. N Caspian will be ice free now or very shortly and offshore drilling season will be starting, hopefully somebody will be needing a barge !

Hoping that the next update is comprehensive on all assets ie

Current Production
A8
A7
142 & other MJF shallows
SY - first horizontal
3AB licences award/ spud
Other deeps remedial work
Barge

One day Caspers, one day :)

Probably flogged the barge

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60785754.amp

Things moving forward and much that there’s plenty of negotiation to come, hopefully it will.

ODS,
I love the oil market but almost impossible to assess due to the many variables that affect it. Yep, all about supply and demand and currently i see it trading above $100 for the forseable, regardless of the Ukraine crisis. Putin has shot himself in the foot re underestimating the Ukraine response and the West's actually most of the world's unified response. There will be a peace deal, the other option doesn't bear thinking about but the days of Russian oil dependency are numbered, even if China, ****stan, India etc try to fill the void. Demand will outstrip supply unless Saudi, Iran, Venezuela and US up the volume considerably, i don't see that happening.

Casper need those positive operational results at a time whereby they can make a killing.

Market is 3.9-3.93/4