Member Info for KumKuat

Nothing doing here until Casper issue some good operational news or that the Ukraine peace talks reach agreement and even then i don't see much of a bounce unless those who bailed buy back in. Needs continued good news and a set of positive FY accounts in May with some guidance that H1 2022 is fantastic, some good news would help !

Bull, A7 won't do anything to the price, just a drilling update on the way to TD. Barge, 142 and A8 are the most realistic this month although i suspect A8 could be April for 2 interval test results. They need to get cracking on the shallows, drill 152, drill the first SY well horizontal . Some good prod numbers inc SY shut in volume would be good to see too. Maybe take 3AB back if the other bods don't have the means to buy the 85% as a result of extreme oil prices.

MLQ, thanks for posting. I read the Astana Times info and KZInform info daily and it's interesting what Tokayev is planning. The unrest roots were with the poverty in a Kleptocratic nation. Time will tell re Tokayev's time in office but everything i read points to significant change with a huge focus on supporting the people, businesses etc. Reform on various levels inc Tokayev position and parliament. Looking to break up districts and regional governance, more opportunity for political opposition etc. He's definitely cleaning out the Nazarbayev clan and it looks like he knows what buttons to press to appease the people. Hopefully the Elites will be forced to share wealth, there will be increased taxation in the right areas and looks like foreign investment is critical to their future, it is and that means not getting embroiled with Russian conflicts.

Hopefully there will be a ceasefire in Ukraine and a peace deal but one thing is for sure, Putin has put Russia back 30 years and they've started the clock ticking as to how Europe and most of the world lift their dependency on Russian trade.

DD, I misunderstood your original post. We're going to know soon enough. What would be good , some really positive news to continue to build cash reserves.

Crude back to $98, that's some decline from the $139 high !! Hugely volatile with all the different variables affecting the price making it almost impossible to predict.

Interesting read on the 300,000 hackers pooling resources to attack Russian infrastructure, that should cause some pain !!

DaisyDo, ? New shares are going into the KO clan as a swap for the $6.2m. KO clan won't be dumping any, saving them for their divi payments.

ODS, yep, the world in the hands of 1 man and that has to change. Our share price is being discounted as a result of the crisis but Kaz is less vulnerable as most unless Tokayev fell out with Putin. Don't know how he gets a win from this conflict. Occupying cities, pushing through crooked referendums to get a greater hold in Eastern Ukraine, maybe that's the plan. That means they'll be in a Donbas situation for the coming years and loads of discontent. Got to continue to ostracise Russia whilst they have a Despot in charge and maybe the economic pain will be enough to force change.

Casper should continue to issue good news and the sp effect will soon be seen. Can they get the PR engine going to attract new interest. Re the barge ? i find it very odd that we've had radio silence and i'm still hopeful of a result that helps with their divi plans. What did the Al Marris see in order to justify them taking on 10% ??

Next news ? 142 test results and maybe Boaty ? If Boaty has been chartered or sold, we'd expect to see news soon as 2022 offshore drilling season is upon us as the N Caspian should be ice free by early April. A8 next intervals to be perforated soon but waiting to see the accelerated operational schedule on all assets.

Not according to my broker. Can buy 200k @ full ask and sell up to 250k @ 3.86p, then up to 500k @ 3.83p before market only. 1.3m of buys and little movement so i'm expecting to see a little selling emerging.

Some buying as a result of possible progress on talks ? Maybe Putin is looking for a win as conflict dragging on longer than expected and sanctions biting. Don't see how he gets a win out of this from the economic perspective as the west will increase the pain and surely something has to give as defaults start and recession follows. Pulling out isn't going to stop sanctions unless there was a huge compromise from Russia re future attacks on sovereign states but that's not happening. I believe he's gone too far but if there is an agreement it will mean that Donbas area reverts to Russia and Ukraine agrees never to join NATO and removes weapons. The west will then strengthen all NATO countries bordering Russia so don't get what he achieves from this as economic pain will hopefully force the inevitable outcome and a successor.

MLQ,

I think there's a little confusion in that note. 1.4bn bopd ?? i believe that's pa. Still a good stat though and nice to see some bottom feeders in early.

Space Aliens….lol, that’s probably the Chinese, keeping out of everything and mopping up at the end.

Re Putin deposed, yep, I’m hoping too and only time will tell. As you say, globalisation has happened, the internet being the glue. We’re all intertwined and it’s going to very difficult for Putin to keep a happy domestic environment kicking along. Ruble being slaughtered, can’t raise sovereign debt and defaults on the horizon. Let’s hope that military escalation is not an option or if it was maybe that’s the trigger point for deposition.

Meanwhile Casper building the cash for their divi strategy and also benefiting from the 30% decline in Tenge v Dollar. You know my thoughts,improve the comms, stuff the Divi and drill done more holes quickly !! If we’re in the same position from a production perspective then you know the game. Probably next news will be that the barge has been bought by Abramovic :)

https://thediplomat.com/2022/03/how-ukraine-could-remake-kazakhstans-relationship-with-russia/

https://reliefweb.int/report/kazakhstan/kazakhstan-announces-volume-humanitarian-aid-ukraine

Mr C,

Nope. They're not trading it and we are a necessary evil as we do dictate the price. The CP & WCP have more than enough and our c250m is irrelevant i'd say. They have always stated that any M&A will be considered but they have to prove up the deeps first.

I always refer the IP of Nov/Feb 2017/2018, the 4 buses and the fantastic accelerated operational schedule. So, i have a very simple ask, do the Ronseal and stop bullshoiting the market. Not much to ask is it !!

Belles, we definitely are from a trading perspective. Much that we may be treated with disdain, they need the PIs to get involved as the CP & WCP aren't trading. The WHI note was an example of Casper wanting PIs to see the value.

Comms are awful as in detail and maybe everybody should write to the company to make their views known. We don't ask for much, just clear concise info inc the detail. Take A8 as one example. 'Tested 5m in one of the intervals' what interval ?' flowing 120 bopd, now 100 bopd' what choke ? is it still flowing ? 'working to improve flow and potential of well' what are they doing ? clearing mud, using acid ?

Next one A8. ' in advanced talks with a multi-national' no update since ?? As we know it goes on and unless yoo complain to KO, Shin and CC, nothing will change.

Casper needs a sentiment/credibility change and that is only going to come following real success that forces the re-rate. Yep, Ukraine is a bummer but it's a bummer for most stocks and much that it's not affecting Caspian oil sales and their hugely improved financial position, it's obviously a drag on the sp. Investors/markets don't like uncertainty and we're suffering as being positioned as a neighbour.

Only 4 months to first divi payment and if they want the sp up, they'd be accelerating the operational program. MJF is a shallow oil lake and 15 more holes to drill. Use the additional cash to buy a couple more rigs and get cracking. Do the same with SY and take advantage of the crude prices. If they're not doing this then something obviously isn't right. Maybe conditions on the ground are difficult but no good saying that 142 testing was stopped without giving us the real reason why and yet again we're back to mushroom status.

Let's see what transpires over the next 4 months.

Adrianz, the fundamentals are strong now and we have a disconnect. The WHI note was bullish but yet minimal effect on the sp. The geopolitical situation isn't helping but something has got to trigger a proper re-rate. I'm not against divis when they've got the sp to double figures but in the interim, accelerate operations to deliver that re-rate. Spending cash on Divis v on operations, especially after nearly 15 years of failure, i just don't get it. Divi of 0.5c or delivers me a little 40k bonus but i'd much prefer a 10p sp and the huge appreciation that goes with it. To get a divi on top, yep, very happy with that. It's cart before horse for me and i ain't buying it. We're not going to lose money from this level (unless Putin gets silly of course) but the next 4 months will tell me everything i need to know. Want to see that huge operational push and spending all their money on that aim :)

ODS,

Yesterday announcement gave the opp to people to unload as nothing moved on operationally or maybe it has but we're left in the dark again. They are trying to attract new investors with the Divi play but that won't happen if comms continue to be crap. I'd have rather have them say that conversion deal done, production levels at 2400 inc or exc SY, no interruptions to sales, receiving $120/30 gross for export and domestic. A full quarterly operational report to follow in due course. Why not do that as it's factual and they'd have had the time to complete 142, test 2 intervals at A8 whilst updating properly on the other assets. Not to report on the barge whether good or bad is a joke and shows their disdain for the PI community.

Fundamentals are not doing it here and sp is disconnected from true value but irrelevant when current trading is between a bunch of PIs passing the parcel. Wouldn't be surprised to see that they've flogged Boaty and means they can easily play the Divi game whereas i have a very different view, spend all the dough on doing the basics ie building a mid sized oil company as opposed to working out how they extract the cash. Wouldn't surprise me if they flowed A8 commercially and flogged the company. One thing for sure, we're going to know the true strategy before the first divi paid.

TT

And Saudi could be doing the same ? Venezuela could come online too but that would be a last resort with Maduro at the helm. Same applies with Iran but unlikely to see that either.

Our Clive, Limerick and Shin only benefit when sp appreciates as no Divis for them . They need sp going north to give them the opportunity to exercise Options pre first payment. Actually Limerick has skin in the game but he’s the only one who’s paid for his stock.

Who knows, maybe JD is right and they know what they have at A8.

ODS, we shouldn't have to be second guessing, that's the point. Was hoping that we'd moved away from vague communication. Maybe it's the weather and they've been unable to get things moving but i have been tracking it and not a harsh winter.

Good news is that 2396 bopd but still don't know if SY included, if so, is it the 300bopd or still sorting flow rates as shut in for 2 years. Based on 2396bopd @ 70/30 split, $120/$30, then Casper are generating over $80m gross revenues. They are now very profitable and have the cash to accelerate operations to get the sp appreciating at pace. Why aren't they doing it ? Why no more testing on intervals 2 & 3 @ A8 ?

4p sp is still a joke but maybe i've got this all wrong and divis are going to attract the new players and everything will be rosy in the garden.

I didn't invest in a high risk OE play in Kaz for divis !! Yep they signal profitability for the future but what happened on the operational front over the last 6 or 7 weeks ?

Just had the WHI broker report with it's price estimates and that's all i'm interested in. Every penny should be spent on doing what an OE company does, dig holes for oil ! Spend the money on more rigs, taking back the 15% on 3AB and going alone as trhe other party certainly isn't going to be buying 85% based on current Crude prices !

A7 ?
A8 - 100bopd and nothing done in 7 weeks
142 - being tested but affected by shut down ? Didn't know it was re-drilled ?
Barge ?
3AB

Have they flogged the barge and got cash lined up for Divis already ? Feck the divis, buy and i said BUY a few second hand rigs, more pipes and drill the arze out of MJF and SY whilst the Crude price is at current levels. Get 3AB sorted, get A8 sorted etc.

If the sp has not risen considerably by the time the first Divi paid, i will be looking to divest if i can't see the multi-bagging potential and this becomes a cash extraction exercise for the big boys.

Let's se what transpires over the coming months.

TT.