Member Info for KumKuat

Thanks for posting Shevek. I take it management didn't answer questions that were asked online by investors ?

Meaningful divis, even 0.15p is 5.5% and wouldn't surprise me to see 0.2p and 7.5%, could even be more as they definitely have the cash. A 0.27p divi @ 10% would probably gain interest regardless of geopolitics and not long to find out. There are much safer bets re divis as per link below but hey, each to their own.

https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-gb/trading-guides/best-dividend-stocks-uk

Not fussed about Urals, i find that crazy, wasting $20m+ pa that could definitely make divi proposition attractive, probably up to 20%, that would definitely throw the cat in.

That note was drafted some time ago as it talks about adjournment of general meeting that could affect timetable but we're not having another meeting ? Regardless, they're pushing ahead and divis could be paid anytime after court order so 22/6 onwards.

None the wiser as to my questions but hey, they need to make money to pay divis and i'm sure they're cognisant of the fact that more production = more revenue = higher divis.

ODS, apols, i meant 0.6p over a year eg 0.15p qtrly. For me it's utter nonsense and shows a lack of commitment to the job at hand ie producing more oil. KO can carry on drawing £10m pa ad infinitum as a tax efficient cash extraction exercise but we'll get to know if that's the game pretty soon. Leave the divis until they're producing 5000bopd and issue higher rewards at that juncture. The rush to pay divis now suggests that our KO and mates (WCP) need a few pennies in the bank after 14 years of waiting.

I've asked questions for today's meeting but i'm not expecting them to be aired.

https://www.neste.com/investors/market-data/urals-brent-price-difference

Hopefully we’ve seen the bottom on Urals discount but one thing is for sure, throwing 30%+ away is crazy so hopefully we get some more clarity on that soon.

Taylor Wessing LLP, 5 New Street Square, London EC4A 3TW - 11am. Are u going Bull ?

Agreed, Crude was tracking to $100 based on supply/demand well before the Ukraine troubles.

Anybody going tomorrow ? i suspect not and i'm peed off that i can't make it as Clive is there. I have asked several questions and hoping that he uses the forum to answer questions from those present and absent.

ODS, yep, Urals discount is a pain but we're still netting over $70 which is fantastic. Company in a completely different situation now with almost double daily production from H1 2021 and crude prices miles higher. Wasn't long ago that they were running on fumes with oil @ $20/6 and a complete transformation now with Ukraine troubles replacing the Covid calamity. Worst case, i have to follow the money and even a 0.6p annual dividend puts a serious chunk in the bank and the yields will probably attract new punters.

I've asked a load of questions of the company, maybe they will answer then tomorrow at the general meeting.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/262860/uk-brent-crude-oil-price-changes-since-1976/

https://topoilnews.com/

We have to go back to 2014 to see better net crude prices and back then Casper oil production was less than 50% of current volume.

Keep on with the shallow program, explore other oil routes and the fundamentals v sp are hugely out of kilter. FY accounts and Divis will highlight the fact and we’ll see whether the geopolitical situation is the negative factor holding sp appreciation back regardless of profitability and Divis.

Another question to ask Clive at meeting tomorrow ie Now that all drilling resources are aimed at accelerating shallow production schedule, how many wells planned this year and exact timetable with expectations. Will the time to commerciality shorten as all manpower focused on shallows and not distracted by deeps.

Mr C, we all have different opinions and hey, that's what makes a market. Caspian in a very strong position financially, quite simply, they have to pump more oil, move the distribution , publicise the improving financials and pay the divis. Much that i don't like the last bit, it will bring investors in especially if targeted PR is part of the process. As always, time will be the teller and let's see what transpires up to the first divi award.

TT.

DD,

Last news saw many PIs running for the door and i'd love to know the current share ownership, probably 300m max, maybe less. Many of those could be larger holders who aren't trading it and i know many of those so how are they going to get sp up ? Only way it's going to happen is by getting new blood in and to do that they need more production which is very likely and to shout the improved financial case from the rooftops. Throw in the fact that they're moving oil route and t/over increasing by $20m, the story is more than compelling. If they added 4 more shallows @ 750bopd which is more than achievable in the near term, they'd be generating $150m+ pa and the divi yield could be absolutely silly. Something has to give here and soon.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/EU-In-Talks-With-Alternative-Suppliers-As-It-Considers-A-Russian-Oil-Ban.html

Crude would go through the roof if the EU really did ban Russian oil, very unlikely but looks like the die is cast and the weaning off process will continue.

Casper have to move their oil away from the Urals blend and that's a major question to be asked at the next general meeting ie how, when and effect on costs ie increased transportation etc. If Casper get to 3500 in short order from a few more shallows and got true export prices, their t/over would shoot past m/cap, crazy stuff. They'd have more cash to pay more divis and you'll be getting high double digit yields from the payments !!

True market is 2.7-2.79 and todays action isn't heavy selling, one BedNIsa, 250k purchased @ 2.79 and 67.5k sold. The 662,041 seems to match a trade from last week but @ 2.62, looks like a forced sell or get out at any cost !!

If the CPC pipeline is back on track, hopefully the big boys can utilise this and allow minnows like Casper to find more lucrative routes to market than the Urals route. That would be a good communication to the market as makes our financials look very strong @ c $70m at $110/25 v $50m @ $75/25. Still a huge improvement on last recorded FY accounts in 2020, $14.3m and $12.1m in 2019. 2021 should show $30m+ and 2022 H1 could show that number just in 6 months dependant on Urals price. Production levels -; 2019 506k bopd, 2020 545kbopd and 2021 ? probably 700k, 2022 H1, probably 420k and more than 1m bopd for the full year ? . In summary, 2022 turnover should be 4x 2020 numbers, double 2021 and the sp is still on it's arze !!

We have to patient to see if improving fundamentals start to resonate with existing and new punters.

Don't believe they go for 0.25p. Start low @ 0.1-0.15p and ramp up as performance ramps up. I really do hate the timing of the divis as we all know that the priority is drilling more holes and then start the divis in 2023 when they've shown the market that they can build production. Casper is a company listed on AIM but it's being run like a private business with it's leader doing as he wishes. Yep we bank money going forward as divis get paid but buy 3 more rigs and do a proper job. Outsource the deeps now as only 2 1/4 years to go on licence and take back 3AB and go solo on it. Taking divis no just smacks of pure greed and take it whilst it's there.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/russia-gas-exports-to-europe-oil-prices-fall/articleshow/90866773.cms?from=mdr

Average $28 down on Crude so should've been receiving c $80 for last month to 14/4 and $75 since then.

And Urals down $37.4, got to get that sorted as $20m being robbed from Casper coffers and it would pay for 4 x 0.15p divis !!

Anyone going to the meeting on Friday ?

Crude @ $111, Tenge devalued 5%, more oil from MJF @2142bopd without 2142 and total oil production 2300bopd.

FY accounts out later next month and Casper are financially stronger than at anytime historically and that continues as oil production builds. The $35 Urals discount is a pain but still very profitable @$75 net and hopefully Casper are making plans to move distribution .

All resources now aimed at shallow production and about bleeding time they woke up to that decision ! Likelihood that production could reach 5000bopd + in 2022 and I hope they spend some of the excess cash on rigs, that’s buying them not anymore asset for equity swaps!

Undervalued by some way and who knows what SY, 3AB and barge may add. I’ve discounted deeps completely as going back to A5 demonstrates desperation to me but still plenty of value in all the other assets and the market will wake up to that at done point. 2.8p looks a very cheap entry or top up number and hopefully we see evidence that was the right decision in Q2 and onwards through 2022.

https://www.neste.com/investors/market-data/urals-brent-price-difference#987e89a2

Almost $35 discount and i suspect this trend continues as Putin presses on, the knob !! A loss of c $19m by going through the Russian pipes so i would hope that that Ko and co will be moving to change this rapidly as 50% of that is his and leaking away ! Tenge spiked to 530 v $ but now back to 450 but still higher than the 425 average for the last few years so 5 or 6% better off.

Another issue, i believe many PIs have jumped ship and that means less enthusiasm on the trading front. Casper are the culprit but as we know PIs account for probably 10-15% max and we need good news and PR to develop that interest.

Nice one. Bizarre that the trading volume didn't follow through this am especially after the late trading on Friday.

This is now a shallow play and i want to see Caspian up the ante on the operational front. We will know soon enough whether these guys are serious about building production or are just going to plod along at current pace whilst extracting the cash on a quarterly basis. I will stay with the investment as i'm following the cash ie KO debt conversion but as stated, £7.5m pa for KO clan isn't a bad living, add in a barge sale or charter and those divis will increase but will the sp too ? i believe it will.