Member Info for KumKuat

H1 2022 accounts will show $35-30m revenue as Jan Feb numbers benefitting for pre sanction Urals price. PBT $5.5-10m .

https://m.uk.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-urals-spot-futures-historical-data

Next stats updated tomorrow but average net price will be $75+ and been tracking at that level since the war started. Pricing pre war for first 2 months well above $100 so you can work out the likely revenue ytd. Last published financials showed gross profits of 77% and net profits of 34% . Cash is obviously building and the suspension of deep well drilling will reduce costs further.

Undervalued guys and girls and I fully expect to see interest picking up from here .

Markets taking a bit of a beating and not many escaping !! Leverage plays will be at risk and when there's a sell off there's opportunity. I've added a few more RR., VSTY, EZJ and TSLA today, not loadsamoney but a healthy interest. Money to be made and lost but i figure barring WW3, there are some real bargains out there and Casper is in that bucket.

Happy to take the divi alongside some sp appreciation. The penny will drop especially if they are close to completing 2 x shallow wells and testing results in June, probably before FY accounts are published. Many traders will be looking at timing, knowing there was going to be a lull pre next material news and i fully expect to see some buying on the run up to news. Last few days have seen some bottom feeding and i believe we see this continue.

Current market
2.66p on the bid to 250k - 2.601 up to 600k
2.8p ask, max parcel 150k

Thanks for update.

Did he say what the second well was ? Horizontal to existing SY well or into new structure ? Or another MJF horizontal @ 152 ?

On the divi front, i think i'm probably being over optimistic re payments and probably se 0.05-0.1p quarterly payments, still a substantial return annually.

Investeg,

Your summary is pretty accurate as per communication from Casper but unfortunately, the communication is not always accurate and i've sent various e-mails to CC on the subject. Last announcement was 2142 an increase on MJF but where are the SY numbers, the 300bopd shut in ? I suspect that they are c 160 bopd as per Clive's previous communication re 2300 bopd current capacity ?

I have sent notes to the company and my asks are simple ones -;

- New Investor Presentation - with detailed ACHIEVABLE operational schedule
- Website revamp
- PR campaign following the new IP

We should have results on 2 shallow wells in June latest and i believe this will tie up with the publication of 21 FY accounts. We need 2 good results from these next wells and to take production beyond 3000 bopd. That gives them the opportunity to issue some positive commentary with the 21 accounts. Highlight the transition to profitable OE company, the huge increase in revenues starting in Q3 21 and building to date. Emphasise the high revenues and profit in Jan/Feb 22 pre the Ukraine invasion and the positive numbers ytd regardless of the $30 Urals discount.

Next steps -;

- 2 successful shallow results in June
- FY accounts mid June
- Divi announcement early July
- New IP July

They have a real opportunity to galvanise existing shareholder support and attract new investors if they get it right. The shallows will get us so far, the barge cash is a bonus and 3AB ? hopefully licence awarded shortly. Current sp is a joke and won't take much to move it and i really believe that we will see a few bags this year if they get it right. The deeps to follow when they've got production and revenue up.

Market is stronger, sp is down yet more buys than sell but bid is strong at 600k so next move north and through 3p shortly.

Putin speech focussing on Donbas and Nazi cleansing, nothing new there and his commentary less bullish to reflect the poor campaign to date.

Serious money to be made, tick, tock.

Afternoon Mike,

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CASP/proposed-cancellation-of-share-premium-account-rvub6oo6a5il05n.html

This timeline is indicative but at least the court hearing for share premium account cancellation is in the UK. Divis announcement anytime after 21/6, probably July.

Gives them enough time to process 142 result, hopefully SY too, throw in a barge deal and licence agreement to drill 3AB.

Toad has cleaned the motor and off to ghe hills to see if I can spot some neon Lycra ;). Drop it from 5th to second in an instant, should crest the desired effect :)

Victory Day tomorrow and crude will probably spike dependant on what’s said. Parading his nuclear strength and declaring the victory of neo-nazi infection in Ukraine and the meddling of the west.

Meanwhile Casper carries on, hopefully drilling more wells than ever on the journey to better things.

The penny will drop this qtr for sure. Can’t have a company delivering revenue of c £35-40m pa v a m/cap of £60m. If we weren’t hit by sanctions, revenue would almost equal m/cap, that’s crazy. I’d understand if earnings weren’t sustainable but it get are and very likely to build considerably.

Clive, time for you to start communicating effectively. A good set of financials, a couple of shallow successes this qtr and a sensible divi. Follow that with some good PR to get the word out and we’ll see a proper re-rate. Only negative is Putin and not much the world can do about that as it’s affecting nearly all investment.

Fingers c’d for a turnaround from here.

Is Casper undervalued with a current m/cap of c £60m ?

- Current production revenues $45-50m - discounted $20m as a result of sanctions
- 2 shallow assets (MJF/SY) with P2 reserves of 25mboe+ - new structure could add to this
- 3AB asset - to be drilled
- Caspian Explorer - to be rented/sold - $25m pa charter rev v $75m sale ?
- Deeps - 4 wells drilled to date, 2 more to go and 1 side-track. Zippo return v $100m+ sunk costs

This isn't for widows and orphans and the geopolitical risk is dragging on sp but i believe it's a risk worth taking. SP oversold imo and some good sp appreciation that will be retained as opposed to the peak and trough trading from deep drilling, positive commentary followed by failure. Making healthy profits and soon to have detail on 21 accounts, and about to pay divis . How many AIM companies are profitable and secondly, can pay divis ? I see a couple easy bags or more just from increased shallow production and divis, everything else is a bonus. I believe w see continued bottom fishing as FY accounts publication date nears and maybe some larger volume come end of this month. I continue to add a few, not huge numbers and believe that the 2.6p bottom is in and good luck to all of you who have been buying in this range, i believe w all get to make a few quid.

Richy,

Unloved and being hurt by the geopolitical issues. Large investors are sitting on hands and poor comms from company re detailed operational plans means no enthusiasm to attract new investors.

We should have a new Investor Presentation, it’s been 4 years and they’re either not interested in doing so or the leadership are crap with PR, probably a bit of both. Maybe they’re waiting to publish FY accounts, announce a couple more shallow wins pre Divi announcement and then produce a new IP.

Carver should be motivated to get the sp up, he and his fellow directors have options and bonus scheme so why no clear comms re future plans ? Just to issue a detailed operational schedule with timelines would help massively providing they stuck to it. To announce that they are drilling 8 shallows for the remainder of 2022 would set the scene. Set their expectations of 500bopd per well, hit the deadlines and communicate effectively. This should be possible with all resources focussed on the task and it would do a lot for investor confidence.

Add in some commentary re current geopolitical situation, their plans to move from Urals and to detail their options. It’s not flippin rocket science and I believe it’s more than time to get rid of current management. This is KO’s ship and he calls the shots, that’s obvious and maybe he’s not interested in sp appreciation at this juncture, hod knows why not.

Undervalued and unloved but they can fix that by setting realistic expectations and delivering the results. I’m waiting to see what transpires over the next few months, I’ll take the the Divi and review then.

ODS,

$54 was the number quoted to continue with the annual operational schedule and that will be less now as no deep campaign which is where the larger % of OPEX is. $30 is keep the lights on position and they wouldn't be paying a divi unless the cash position is not healthy. Urals oil will find a home as the greedy feckers in Pokistan, India and China are all recipients as are the EU currently.

FY accounts will show us how things have improved and asking the right questions in the AGM or via shareholders questions online, should get us the clarification we need.

I'm not for cutting costs, only the deep program, they need to really push on with the shallows but we'll not stop the divis and i can't see them declaring a paltry sum but not long to wait either way.

People also worried about Putin's Victory Day announcements and moving from 'special operation' to all out war with the intent of galvanising support in Russia. Finland and Sweden making their decisions re NATO applications and more sabre rattling all around but if 'N' word gets discussed, it won't be Kaz issue, it will be everyone's problem. What a complete and utter dick he is.

Yep, sadly far too long. Great opps if you were a nimble trader but our Roxi/Casper is a serial disappointment over the years. We are going to get to know this year whether they can build shallow production to the original expectations of 6-8kbopd but they'll need SY and new reserves to do that probably. Deeps are the catalyst to the large sp re-rate but i see money to be made from these levels with the likelihood that prod increases will happen and divis could be seen as a Brucie Bonus by the wider investor community and we need new investors !

Casper has always been a target for pump and dump and i'm expecting to see that again in the near future as FY accounts, maybe some operational news and Divi announcement not too far away, accompanied by the usual ramping shoite.

Geopolitical situation is definitely hurting and it would help matters if Casper were a little more communicative ie 'no threat to oil exports, have 2 or 3 options re other export routes if needed and no negative impact to prices'. Just that little sentence would help but hey this is Casper.

Mid May up to the Covid years as you’d expect them to be later with all the crap to deal with. Could be as early as w/c 9/5 but regardless of when they land, the commentary will be positive as they will show turnover, profit and cash up, the magnitude yet to be revealed. Hopefully we get the forward guidance for 2022 position and the AGM will follow pre first divi payment.

Historically, end of May to end of June

Tucson,

Re divis, i'm probably being a tad optimistic with 0.15p qtrly payments but i believe they have the cash to do it whilst still running with an accelerated shallow campaign that will hopefully build future revenues and profits. FY accounts will give us a handle on revenues in last quarter as production and crude increased after successful 153 and 154 HDs. We will have the opp to ask shareholder questions and get to fully understand monthly cash generation and divi paying capability.

Need a positive 142 and SY result pre divi payment in July, that would definitely spice things up and who knows, the white elephant may come good.

Yep but the trend is south. Market is 2.61-2.675 and likely divi yields increasing by the day !

https://m.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-urals-spot-futures-streaming-chart

Urals averaging c $85 since Jan 22 so not the end of the world is it.

Crazy stuff going on with oil negotiations, latest one with Germany agreeing bi-lateral agreement for supply of 10bn barrels with India who are negotiating a 20bn barrel heavily discounted deal with Russia !!! The world has gone mad and India should be sanctioned heavily too. China, India and ****stan milking Russia for cheap oil and not a thought to the Ukrainian misery.

It will be interesting to see what Caspian FY 21 accounts show. They’re production was down 16% yoy H1 20/21, 272k to 228k. The big change was that exported oil moved from 42% of total to 66% in 2021 and guidance was that this will move further to the agreed contractual numbers of 70:30. H2 production in 2020 was 272k and I expect that H2 21 will show c 300k as they only benefited from 153/154 in Q4. So FY production in 21 will probably be similar to 20 @ 545k but the massive changes are oil price @ x4-x5 and the % of oil that was sold to the export market. Gross profit had jumped to 77% in H1 2021 v same time in 2020 (48%) and turnover of $10m (2021) v $5m (20). 2021 FY accounts should show show c $25-30m v $14.3m so doubling but the interesting number will be the magnitude of profitability v the $1.3m loss in FY20. Hoping to see healthy profitability, gross margins sustained @ 75%+ with the continued higher % of exported oil at far higher prices.

Too many numbers but 2021 would’ve been Casper’s best year from a financial perspective and 2022 H1 numbers will continue that trend and hopefully we see doubling again to $60m t/o and $45m+ gross profit. Current prod @ 2300 bopd would give 780k bopa and a few more shallow successes will see that well over 1m barrels at a much higher oil price even with the discounts.

In summary, sp is a joke but most of the PIs left are probably holding tight and Tommy traders have either been forced out or flipped to pastures new looking for the next buck. Good to see continued Bed & Isa transactions that show that some sizeable holders are sticking with the story. Next 3 months to Divi announcement should be interesting.

Have a good BH weekend