Member Info for KumKuat

Mr C, as per my last post, India, Pokistan and China are fuelling the Russian military engine, pardon the pun. Sanctions ? absoflippinlutly !!

Casper benefitting from a pick up in Urals pricing over last week and filling those coffers. Bid slowly strengthening as peeps pick a few up but volumes are minimal. Positive news on 141/142 and the fundamentals v sp are silly but that doesn't necesarily mean the sp appreciates hugely as we need Clive to get the word ou.

Current bids 0-100 @ 2.85p
100-200k @ 2.82p
200-400k @ 2.8p

Buys up to 200k @ full ask. They are slowly taking the price up knowing that there is material news coming and a very good chance we see a little positive flurry of activity.

TT

Penny slowly dropping. Volume still very low but going in the right direction, especially on a market down day. Bid strengthening and peeps, probably the usual faces will be joining the party before w/c 30/5...lol.

Bid strengthening and now 300k @ 2.75p up to 400k @ 2.7p. Slowly, slowly going in the right direction and small volumes will move the price. General markets are shoite and can see FTSE breaking 7000 and Dow back into the 20s if the 'R' word comes into play. Couldn't resist a few TSLA today, touched $690, down 45% from recent high ! More to go ? probably but that's a buy and hold play as it will bounce.

Back to Casper, next 2 months are very important to enable CC to go out and shout about the profitable revenue growth, the transition from loss maker to very profitable OE company. Revenues doubling/trebling yoy, that trend will continue and investors can enjoy fantastic divi yields of X pa. A

Need a couple of great results from 141/142 to help the PR case and do the 'application replication' thing, keep on applying the same methodology to build shallow production and company to $100m+ in short order. Do that and easy to deliver a new IP with a real operational schedule and strategy that current and new investors can buy into. Stage set, over to you Casper.

Mr C, re revenues increasing. I'm trying to find the article stating that they were with the routes to market but alas i can't locate it. I'd agree that the mechanisms are basic but this article detailed that spend was up by x to P*kistan, India and China, that with the Rouble increasing against the $ was equalling higher revenues than pre war numbers.

Tucson,

I do ask lots of questions but as you can imagine, some are probably price sensitive and i certainly don't want to be take 'inside' on information divulged. To be fair, CC does respond as he does with other investors that i suspect are long term holders. As said, i ask a load of questions and not all answered. The exporting of oil doesn't worry me as he's already communicated that there are other routes and will act if necessary. Obviously not easy to do and i've asked why eg cost prohibitive etc but no clear response.

We all have the opportunity to ask shareholders questions at the AGM, whether you're going or whether online. Really important that investors have their say and this year more than ever. FY accounts out in 2 or 3 weeks, i'd say early June as auditing is taking a lot longer as Covid has definitely affected tardiness and efficiency yet they want to charge more for the privilege !!

AGM is probably going to be end of June to tie in with the Divi process ie getting High Court approval etc. Hopefully they'll be in a position to answer all our questions so let's make sure that we compile a really good list.

I don't see it the same way. If we're agreed that oil price is going to remain above $100, Caspian wil find other routes to market whether that be rail to Azerbaijan or shipped to Uzbekistan. Oil prices are going to go up dramatically in Q4 this year if supply dries up so it will give Caspian other options to look at other routes. Yep, more domestic is an option but i don't see that happening.

Risk ? yep, there's loads of that with this investment but that's why the sp is on it's arze. Only Caspian can change that by drilling a load more wells, build the production, pay the divis and start shouting, LOOK AT ME. If people don't look and invest, providing their successful, i'll take the divis.

They're drilling the easier MJF targets but i'd have thought that they'd be drilling SY too as they have the available rigs unless they're not in service of course ? Are they conserving cash for a healthy first divi ?

Un.....lol

I've been around since the beginning and inevitable you have regular contact with the leadership. I give my feedback and don't hold back when disappointed which is most of the time ! Comms needs to improve and hopefully the next 2 wells gives them the opportunity and platform to communicate effectively. As i keep saying, loads of money to be made :)

Thanks for posting Richy.

Clive’s response to a few of my points a couple of weeks ago. Ties in with your communication .

‘Responding on a few of the points in your email.

The discount for Urals Oil is around the $30-35 per barrel level.

There are alternative routes out for the oil but these would involve additional fixed expenditure on our part as none are perfect. In the short term we believe we are better off living with the discount, but we review this on a regular basis. In this we seem to be the same as other Kazakh producers faced with a similar position.

On production we are close to completing two additional shallow wells which will then go for testing.

On dividends generally, our view is that as we enter a much better phase for cash generation we should fulfill an old pledge to start paying dividends. Once we have drilled the final deep well at BNG we will no longer have the obligation to fund the costs of further deep wells and our focus on the deeps will be to get as many as possible of those already drilled to work before drilling any further wells.

Being a dividend payer and having the deep well potential will move us into a different category.

On the barge, we continue to see potential interest but have yet to sign a deal.

I think we are about 4 weeks away from issuing the 2021 results at which point we will also revamp the website and the investor presentation.

Mr C,

I had comms with Clive last week and he confirmed discounts of c$30 so the Spot prices as per Investing.com data is accurate.

Casper near term target gives is 1m bopa and I’m sure that 1.5m-2m will follow in short order.

We make money from here providing the geopolitical situation gets out of control, that’s our primary risk.

See the sp going on a little run soon and just need Casper to help it along with the right news and commentary.

Adrianz,

I'm going to go predict that 2021 H2 revenue was higher than $18m, depends on when 154/153 production converted to cash. I'm going to go for $30m and a higher number in 2022 dependant on shallow success. If they get production up to 3500bopd in Q3 and Urals stays at $75, then i'd predict $65m+ in 2022. Regardless, the company is hugely undervalued and that won't change until the company provides some great PR from a position of strength ie the numbers back them up. A strong divi payment combined with some spot on PR will bring in more investors. If it doesn't. the divis will increase in the success case and the fundamentals will continue to be disconnected to sp and the void will grow. At some point, peeps will notice.

Traded by the free PIs and our Clive needs to ensure that his communication is spot on after FY accounts are published and divis announced. Need the IP to be factual and the operational expectations set, to be achievable. Revamp the bleedin website and attract new investors.

Our KO is well under water with the debt conversion. He's lost 18% on sp from 3.2 to 2.6p and 10% on exchange rate from 1.39-1.24, a double whammy and he'll want a sensible divi.

Still expecting to see a little pump over the next couple of weeks pre news but it's down to Clive to get the communication right and attract interest from the wider investor community.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61461805

https://astanatimes.com/2022/05/kazakh-german-companies-sign-200-million-in-agreements-at-business-forum-in-nur-sultan/

If this is true re CSTO, then i would say that our Putin is being backed into a corner if he needs to reach out to the CSTO members to present a unified front against NATO. Belarus mobilising on their borders yet again shows that Russia can not fight a ground war on many fronts. He's alienated Finland and Sweden, all the Baltic states, he is a man under pressure so hopefully he has no control re pressing buttons and having the last hurrah.

The sad fact is that Russian oil revenues are ahead of pre war numbers regardless of sanctions. Discounted oil is heading east and the west can wean off it quick enough. The German bi-lateral deal to buy from India is absurd as Russia continue to export in volume.

The second link, and there are many more examples where Kaz getting on with it's business and trading with the world. They won't be dragged into a 'united front' against the west and will be a lot happier when the aggressive neighbour on it's border is muzzled.

Un,

We will get a good handle on it in 2 or 3 weeks when accounts are out. Not sure what our current production is as last update was 2142 and capacity 2300bopd. All resources are aimed at shallows now so hopefully much more activity on work overs, new wells etc . Urals is holding up with receipts $75-80 so they know what they need to do, drill more wells, it’s that easy surely. Can’t have sp down at this level of profitable revenues continue as resultant divi yields will attract new investment. Next 2 months should give us what we need to make informed investment decisions.

Exchange rate also will work for them when paying Divis. $ has strengthened 15% and that’s a big benefit when Divis paid in £s. Also benefitted from the Tenge devaluation at home so all not bad.

Crypto, beats the shoite out of me .

Meanwhile-;

https://m.uk.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-urals-spot-futures-historical-data

This tool is really useful to track Urals. $84.80 average since war started and $86.92 since 1/1. I’ll let you mathematicians work gross revenues, likely gp and pbt .

I've not got any Crypto exposure but know plenty of people who have, many invested in Coinbase. The dip to $26.5k yesterday was a shocker and much that it's bounced, the interests squeeze and inflationary pressure is creating panic selling. Coinbase announced that in the event of bankruptcy, those invested in CB wallets with password authentication v private wallet and key, could lose everything in a liquidation !! I know my pals have been in for years and have cold storage wallets held offline but there is a risk of a further crash if people start pulling away from exchanges like Coinbase fearing their money isn't safe. That will create volume to drop on the platform and more pressure on a company that lost $430m in Q1 and a 19% drop in users. Too risky for me, Casper is risky enough ;)

The war scenario is messy as Ukraine are gaining traction in the north and plans to deploy resources south east to make a bigger play to recover Donbas. Finland and Sweden NATO plans will add fuel but as we all know, Putin started this. Where it goes for now, god only knows but it doesn't look like ending anytime soon sadly as the Ukrainians aren't interested in a peace settlement unless Russia back away. Looks like a long slog ahead and how long can he stay in charge if the economic conditions force unrest.

Meanwhile Kaz are walking the tightrope and creating more trade relationships with other countries, a sensible strategy and Casper just need to keep drilling those holes and building up the production.

ODS, yep, 30% decline in last month and 50% over the year. If the asset bubble bursts, next step $20k , scary stuff and a lot of leveraged players getting slaughtered including kids.

Important time for all to get inflation under control. Maybe a house price crash not a bad thing for our younger folk who can’t get in that ladder.

https://m.uk.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-urals-spot-futures-historical-data

$78, not the end of the world.

Un,

Apols. Agreed re crude in Jan and Feb, i'm in a time warp, feels like oil has been above $100 forever, i'm sure it has been as my car fuel bill is not nice !

Haven't redone the numbers to get tough PBT number, maybe a little les than yours. I'd like to see 0.125p initial divi but i believe it'll be less. Will cost them $3.5m to fund it, yep, they have the cash but they'll probably hold a sensible buffer should they need to change oil routes and manage any disruption. We'll get to see cash position when FY accounts published and that will give us a clear indication as what is fundable.

Edit, 8.5-10m pbt