Member Info for KumKuat

Adrianz,

They'll have the cash to do all. As we know the real upside comes from the Airshagyl block with 58km2 opportunity v 4km opportunity at NY. Interesting that they had the blow out at the previous Soviet Well so maybe 802 is the first success. On Airshagyl, i wish they re-drilled A5 as a vertical well as it was heralded as the best chance and history has shown that it is. Drill 802 and finish A7 but redo A5 before A9.

Accounts out mid next week but the real revenue growth has come in the last 9 months so hopefully some positive commentary from our CC.

Anybody attending the AGM ?

DM.....lol, i just had a look !

Et al,
The only thing holding Caspian back is the investor base. 250-300m max in PI hands and they're the ones that are doing the trading/investing. It's great from one perspective ie that stock is tightly held and the magnitude of share price fluctuation can be huge on the right news BUT unfortunately, there are many people actively trading it hence the low average daily volumes. The company know this, was confirmed in the note to Richy and i've had the same comms so how do we change that ? Only answer is for the stale holders to sell and i know several people holding chunks that want to exit as need the cash so you're going to see huge churn soon.

Casper just need to keep banging out the good news, pay sensible divis and get the word out. The stock is ready for a breakout move and we'll probably see that following the AGM or when Divis announced. Just keep on adding if you can as the divis alone will deliver a handsome annual return but the sp won't stay down here for long.

DT,

Casper 4000bopd not 1300 and increasing
Don't get $80 for all. Export over $90 and increasing with Kebco development. 65:35 ratio export:domestic

A bit more research needed don't you think !

DM,

Much that i believe that 0.per qtr is excessive, it's more than doable as the annual cost would be c $28m at todays exchange rate. Netbacks are currently c$40 from the discounted price but prices rise as a result of KEBCO then $50-60 net probably achievable and will be interesting to see what Domestic prices achieved as they've gone up too.

Your 8m or so stockpile @ x average price and 20% pa interest, not the end of the world ;)

Thank you for posting Zak’s view on possible golden cross in the near term and breakout to 8 or 9p possible, especially as we are leading onto the first divi payment.

Hold on Caspers is the sun about to RISE in the east ;)

And this was Clive’s response to several questions I posed on the 9th May. He didn’t state 141/142 but 2 wells close to completion .

Phil

Responding on a few of the points in your email.

The discount for Urals Oil is around the $30-35 per barrel level.

There are alternative routes out for the oil but these would involve additional fixed expenditure on our part as none are perfect. In the short term we believe we are better off living with the discount, but we review this on a regular basis. In this we seem to be the same as other Kazakh producers faced with a similar position.

On production we are close to completing two additional shallow wells which will then go for testing.

On dividends generally, our view is that as we enter a much better phase for cash generation we should fulfill an old pledge to start paying dividends. Once we have drilled the final deep well at BNG we will no longer have the obligation to fund the costs of further deep wells and our focus on the deeps will be to get as many as possible of those already drilled to work before drilling any further wells.

Being a dividend payer and having the deep well potential will move us into a different category.

On the barge, we continue to see potential interest but have yet to sign a deal.

I think we are about 4 weeks away from issuing the 2021 results at which point we will also revamp the website and the investor presentation.

Best regards

Clive

7th April Update 'The year began with the first significant instance of civil unrest for several years. In early January we were forced to suspend all operational activity for a brief period. While this had only a small impact on the quantity of oil produced it had a bigger impact at Well 142, which was at a crucial point and will now need a further side-track before being brought back into production.'

Also -;

During the first quarter we worked on Well 142 and prepared for the drilling of a horizontal well on the South Yelemes structure targeting oil in the Sandstone, at a depth of approximately 2,430 meters.

I read that as having to start again and they managed to re-drill 142 and test it successfully in little over 6 weeks. All i'm being told that 2 shallows were close to completion. 142 in and another due and Richy was told 141, i wasn't and was assuming that it would be the first SY well as the commentary from the 7th update. But as you say, that is at cross purposes with the latest RNS. Probably mis-communication, not the first time is it.

'Existing MJF shallow wells 141 and 151 are next to be re drilled. Planning continues for a new horizontal well on the shallow South Yelemes structure, which like the MJF structure has a full production licence. This new horizontal well will have a planned Total Depth of 2,430 meters and target potential oil-bearing intervals in the Dolomites.'

Somm,.....lol. I can read and yes it does. Welcome to Carverspeak and as you know, it's not the first time. We didn't get any updates on the re-drill of 142 and the completion and testing was done in record time, maybe that's the situation @ 141. I was actually expecting the next well to be the first horizontal on SY.

Disappointed to see the sp not hold onto gains but not surprised. Those who are trading this well will be averaging down and good luck to them but this has to break north soon and stay north !

Somm,

I posted a note from CC in early May stating that 2 wells close to completion and Richy P also posted a similar note stating 141/142 were the wells.

I have all the IPs but in hard copy format. Nov 17 one was replaced by the Feb 2018 one below. Won't be long to see the new one and documented future plans.

https://www.caspiansunrise.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Caspian-presentation-Feb-2018-290118.pdf

The sp has been reaching the high 4ps and falling back as peeps take profits off the table or maybe looking to buy back in cheaper ? The latter will be harder to do as the activity ramps and the sp stops being so predictable. Selling @ 4.6p range to buy back cheaper ? Don't think that's possible now or the profit margin is limited as the risks are being diminished as the success continues.

141 result, FY accounts, AGM (New IP) and Divi next. Looking forward to seeing the detail in the new IP.

Rhertig,

Yep, interesting that there was a blow out on a Soviet era well in close proximity to 802. Highest chance of success of all the BNG wells, maybe they finally get lucky and that will the real catalyst to propel the sp northwards.

Casper, currently cracking the MJF field with the horizontal strategy, soon to do it at SY and the cash rolling in. SP currently discounted 50% from the shallow prospects value, probably more and everything else in for free . I'm hoping that they add more prospective acreage to their portfolio or take back 3AB if that could be renegotiated. If they were successful at 802 or A7, they are company maker wells and probably would initiate a bidding process for the company ?

In summary, sp remains disconnected from company true value. Limited downside if any from here and won't be long before we see a proper breakout through 6p and double figures will follow in short order. The real upside will come from one of the deeps but i believe we'll see 6-8 bags from the low without them.

This is the time when PIs can't resist taking profits and banking an easy 10-15% profit but won't be long before this breaks through 6p and then on to double figures. Casper mow have the fuds to deliver that active operational schedule which will deliver consistent news flow which will keep investors interest. Regular shallow results, 2 per qtr, 8 pa, add in the deeps at 802 and A7 plys remedial work, it could be very hectic. The divi payments will add to the sizzle and Caspian now need to deliver great PR that hits the spot.

Lots of money to be made boys and girls :)

Wolfi,
Monday morning and also half term so many peeps still asleep or maybe frantically trying to buy back in....lol. We're on the way back to double figures and the market will wake up soon. If they start receiving near Crude prices for Kebco then the fundamentals will be silly v the sp. I love the fact that they're building cash which will give them options to possibly expand their asset base.

TT

Penny dropping slowly.

Good to see investors asking Casper to release clarification on exported oil following the EU embargo news. Casper sell to Oil Traders and they obviously want to earn their cut, higher revenue more commission so hopefully we start to benefit sooner rather than later. I think Clive penned this note prior to the Kebco news but regardless, great for Caspian revenues.

802 greatest chance of success ? i thought that was always A5 but hey i'll take it and it will add to the positive commentary as the shallow success continues.

Looking forward to seeing the new IP and hopefully the operational schedule will be deliverable. They have the money now so no excuses and it won't be boring for shareholders. Loads of activity and who knows, we may get 3AB going shortly and somebody may buy/charter the barge.

Not many AIM companies at this price soon to be generating $100m+ revenue with assets that can deliver much more. Even if the deeps were a failure, they'd have a couple more years left in the appraisal phase to attempt remedial work and being cash rich, they have options to add other blocks if the right opportunities emerged.

Price at 4.4p and market waking up, slowly ;)

Not sure how long it’s going to take to receive Crude prices but that’s a great development. Already receiving $95 over last few trading days if they are receiving Urals spot. If 141 lands another 1000 bopd then turnover would be exceeding $130m pa based at current Crude prices.

The penny will drop and great timing with AGM and Divis on the horizon.

Nice find JCB.

Won’t be long before we see $90+ average of crude stays at this level going forward. Casper achieving almost $100 and probably $ 120m if 141 comes in at 1000bopd. M cap at £88m, this is getting silly. Great to have a company that is building cash, it gives them options.

Meanwhile Urals spot traded at $96 average on last 2 recorded days and roughly $37 discount to Crude. If Casper are achieving those prices then happy days and that will probably continue in the short term giving them the time to assess best options re future routes to market.

FY accounts upon us but I believe they could be delayed a week or so if my auditors are anything to go by. RSM ! Paying top dollar and they’re asking so many more questions, largely as a result of Covid, remote working etc. The Accountants employ grads straight out of Uni, they cut costs as a result of not coming to site and the Teams world means that they are less efficient re getting g the work done. If they were on site, we’d have had it all done as f2f comms resolves any query quickly.

Enough of Accountancy firms ! Next steps -;

141 completion this month
FY accounts mid month
AGM 30th June
July - First divi

They want investors to be at the AGM. I’ve never seen them announce AGM pre FY accounts release but obviously keen to deliver new IP and answer shareholder questions.

Some peeps have sold as a result of export sales concerns but I believe that’s a poor call but hey, it isn’t my money. SP remains disconnected from greatly improved fundamentals, how long will that continue ? Not for long !!

https://uk.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-urals-spot-futures-historical-data

Urals averaging $83.48 as per chart above, a couple of days behind when crude was over $120 so the Urals price will be trading at $85 average over last month. Current crude @ $117 so the discounted Urals price at $85 is probably a fair number to use currently.

Going forward ? You saw the company view re Urals, they don't see it dropping regardless of EU sanctions and obviously they're looking at alternatives should they be wrong. The Iron silk road south as CC mentioned and the company has also stated that Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan are options plus the latest info on mini refineries. Kazakhstan are currently inextricably linked to Russia for energy distribution but they are fully aware that their oil/gas has to be sold and are making plans to ensure that continues. The big players like Chevron/Exxon etc, they will be making plans in close discussion with the Kaz govt. The majors will want top dollar, the Kaz govt want GDP growth and all the taxation that comes from it's energy sector and they will be broadening their relationships with the world to lessen it's links with Russia.

Casper needs new investors and that will come as the good news continues. SP appreciation will come too after the company have done their IP and PR or maybe the accounts that are due anytime, will evidence the financial transformation. Another positive shallow win pre AGM would also be great news and creates more cash for divis and those investors who want to take advantage of it.

Strong buy for me and i must be in the top 5 now, a couple of slots behind Raver Mike who's in ramptastic mode ;)