Member Info for KumKuat

https://m.uk.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-urals-spot-futures-historical-data

Last couple of days at over $86 and that average of $80.63 last 20 days and increasing as the lower values get knocked out ie the $73 days. Every $ helps and hopefully we’ve all worked out that net backs are c $45m at current production levels with more to come. That enables Casper to accelerate the operational schedule and pay Divis although I hope they don’t get to bullish with the first one ie build it up as revenues build.

In a good position to exploit the asset base now. The deeps are a challenge but who knows with 802 on Yelemes block, only the second well and A7 already drill to 2k+ metres and will be the last well to fulfil the prod licence requirements.

3AB opportunity just sitting there but hopefully licence approval is near so partner can drill first well although I believe Casper should cancel farm out and go alone.

The barge rental/sale ? who knows ?

Undervalued on shallow assets and nothing priced in for other assets, crazy but the market will get it soon. The deeps are the catalyst to take us on the journey to £ values but they have to get the oil to flow. Finding it is one thing and they’ve done that with all wells drilled, flowing it will transform the company.

Yep it's the latest one issued today but i've got it now from the portal doesn't provide us with any more info.

https://www.whirelandplc.com/research-portal?domain=https://www.caspiansunrise.com#/portal/whireland

Anybody got access to the WHI Portal. I am signed up to Research Tree but not accepting log in for some reason. Have asked company to put up on new website.

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/caspian_sunrise/news/rns/story/wkvoo1r

I'd urge the newbies to do their research, especially on the numbers. The Interims above show the last set of accounts to June 21 and our FY accounts to Dec21 are due in next 2 weeks. Look at the first page on operational highlights. Look at the no of barrels produced and the turnover compared to now !!! As i said, the market hasn't woken up to this yet but it soon will.

C'mon Clive, you've delivered 142, 141 to follow soon so 5000 bopd in sight. Website revamped and Investor Presentation coming pre divis. Down to you to get the message out but 5000bopd come end of June a 1.8m bopd v the paltry numbers in the attached interims.

Wakey, wakey everybody, you are looking at a very large gift horse in the smacker.

Launched a tad prematurely i feel and must've used the Tardis. Already spudded 802 in June 22...lol. Am i a few days behind ;)

New website up

https://www.caspiansunrise.com/investors/

New Investor Presentation to follow, they're following the script and finally, we are starting to sea the Caspian Sun RISE !!

Yep Somm, nothing new there !

Somm,

CC sent note to RichyP re 141/142 completion and sent me a similar note stating that 2 shallows close to completion ie

'On production we are close to completing two additional shallow wells which will then go for testing.'

142 in but i wasn't advised which wells, that was communicated to RP. I can see them getting to 5k bopd+ in short order which is crazy when only 10 months ago we were at 1300 bopd and oil prices at c $60.

Sitting back today and enjoying a little price correction but the penny hasn't dropped yet. Those who bother to do their research, who make the effort to communicate with the company, they will will have a true handle on net numbers. The penny hasn't dropped here yet but it will. 4.45p current mid price is a joke and the sp remains disconnected from the fundamentals.

Casper drilled the easy target ie 142 knowing they could follow 153/154 result, 141 is also close to completion as per CC comms and 151 to follow. Also the first horizontal on SY in the pipeline and they're building production rapidly whilst oil prices are high.

Next steps
141 completion - another 1000 bopd+ ?
151
SY first horizontal
802 deep well - wasn't expecting this

In summary, lots of operational activity that has a high probability of success as all are shallow targets following the success on last 3 wells. It now enables Casper to publish the new Investor presentation, revamp website and deliver really positive PR backed up by a positive production and revenue build. Divis to follow in July this is about to get very silly and the market hasn't recognised it yet. Thundering herd not arrived yet and penny bloggers not onto it either but the message will get out.

Long overdue and the run has started yet, gl all, especially lths :)

That is a cracking result . Can’t buy a sausage….lol

Well, that is great news :)

The sp has to go up if revenues build. Let's assume that they can get to 3500 quickly by emulating 153/154 results with the next 2 wells and maybe some more from SY. T/over would be c £65m pa and if sp didn't rise, the m/cap would be £65m ?? They'll probably be generating net profits of £20-25m from £65m and the FY accounts will give us an idea of margins and costs likely to be less this year due to unrest and less operational activity. If the above happened the divi yields will be stupid and the wider investor community will get involved, especially if they get the comms and PR right. Quite simply, increased revenues and divi = increased sp but nobody is buying it, YET.

Morning Mike,

Re taking Private, I can’t see that, especially after all the work invested in setting up Divi program. Why would KO give up $6.2m of cash and the annual interest ?

Re converting Divis for discounted shares , not for me, I’ve got more than enough and way too much risk here already. They’re not going to change their minds re Divis and I agree, they should be chucking it all at shallows.

Re it being a buy, I agree wholeheartedly but not without risk. They have to get new investors onboard and I believe that they’re now managing news flow with the 141/142 wells. Lowest risk, a good result takes them to 3k bopd ? and enables them to get the word out. We need new investors and we’ll soon find out whether Kazakh plays are investable regardless of the fundamental v sp position.

What is the divi payment going to be ? KO is underwater from the debt conversion transaction and I’m sure he wants to recover his annual $434k£350k interest on his $6.2m loan. KO is also underwater from the transfer @3.2p and the exchange rate at 1.39.

Only needs 0.01p pa to give the KO clan 1.1m and only cost Casper £2.25m pa to service the whole investor base. They can afford more but it will be interesting to see the magnitude of the first one. 0.03p for the year ? 10% yield pa and qtrly payments of 0.0075 ? Possibly a higher one as first payment ?

Needs positive production results pre the divi announcement as that will give them the flexibility to up it. An increase of 1000bopd will probably add $22m pa revenue at current prices so pretty crucial if they want to make a positive noise with the first payment.

FY accounts will give us a handle on cash position and margins, not long to wait.

Cont'd

Prod $3500 bopd
Urals net $80
Domestic $25
Prod split 70:30

These are assumptions, domestic may be $20, split maybe 65:35 but even at those numbers, the revenue is multiples of 20/21 numbers. If it wasn't for sanctions, the numbers above would deliver $110-120m. Can they build production to 5000bopd within the next year ? i hope so, especially if they buy a couple more rigs and focus on the job.

SP hugely discounted but not long to wait for some material news and buying will inevitably increase over the next few weeks.

141 & 142 results are very important from a good news perspective. Can they deliver another 1000 bopd+ as 153/154 are delivering ? Casper have stated that they want to get to 3500bopd in the near term so could these 2 wells get them there ? maybe with a little assistance from additional volume @ SY ? If/when they get to 3500 , the revenue will probably exceed $80m based on the following assumptions -;

Prod
Urals net $80

Morning Investeg,

I don’t believe so. The MJF field has been in field development mode for years. Change of strategy last year to use the deep rigs to drill the horizontals successfully and have the work over rigs to revive wells to minimise depletion rates. They have more than 200 personnel in the field and the capability to ramp up the operational effort and I don’t understand why they aren’t doing this. They can manage the production output without need for a new pipeline and all that goes with that, that would be a different scenario if deeps flowed as transportation would become an issue and money to be spent on FDP. We know that MJFP2 numbers are 25mboe so maybe they’re managing the field capability ? Don’t understand why they’re not drilling SY either , they have the capacity to do so. I do believe that they are looking for a couple of quick wins from 141/142 and conserving cash as divi announcement is only a month or so away. Somm and many others inc me believe it’s a cart before horse strategy as why wouldn’t you defer the divi and build production by chucking all resources at the task. KO has done the debt conversion, he’s underwater on that transaction, both from a share value and exchange rate but the first divi will fix that for him and the wider concert party.

We have the opportunity to ask questions at the AGM and as stated, it’s time to get some real clarity on Casper’s strategy and effective delivery.

We are DEFINITELY on the same page on cart and horse !! As CC stated, they are fulfilling a pledge made BUT this isn't the time and do it when they've built the production. They should be all over SY but let's see what the new IP positions. If it's Walter Mitty stuff, they'll lose credibility so needs to be a factual doc.

It's in a better position now than at anytime historically when sps were 8x todays price. The deep sizzle has been parked but not gone and the 2.55p recent low, was a bargain as is the current price whether your trading or buying to hold.

ODS,
At $80 net say, Casper are very profitable and i'm expecting to see GP in the high 70s range and NP @ 30 points+. I sense that they're not doing as much operational activity as they should be doing especially as they have the cash to do it. I think they're conserving as much as poss to make a sensible Divi payment whilst doing enough operationally to build production numbers. Soon know the facts and i'm looking forward to the new Investor Presentation and one they they have to do is to stick with the timeline and delivery. If they do that, trust and credibility will return.

It's a messy old world currently and i'm hoping that China aren't going to upset the apple cart further by invading Taiwan knowing that US is distracted. China will play their cards at some juncture imo, jus a matter of timing. China will be looking at Russia's botched job of the Ukraine invasion thus far and biding their time re their plans to profit from other countries poor strategic decisions. They never get involved in humanitarian causes, they stay out of military conflicts, meanwhile they build their economic supremacy and position in the world.

Enough of the happy thoughts on a Friday, c'mon Casper, a little interest today to see us through 3p ready for the p&d boys to make their usual intro pre month end ;)