Member Info for KumKuat

Somm,

Yep, A5 was the best chance, maybe still is the best chance so hopefully they haven't messed up the well to the point of no return. A5 is worth a lot more than 4 shallow wells, not about the bopd, all about the reserves and 100m boe PT is what we're after, that's the massive multi-bagging re-rate we've been waiting for.

Can't believe the sp @ current level but hey, most stocks are battered as Russian sabre rattling continues and inflationary pressures build. At this rate, quarterly divis will be at 10% !! that will definitely attract attention .

A5 is the only well that flowed with gusto, 3800bopd but that would've been opening the choke. Hopefully all invested here saw the flaring video and proves that we do have oil BUT getting it to flow consistently is not achievable by this mob. They're not skilled enough and after 7 years trying, they have to get somebody involved. They're going alone as they are keeping costs down and stating that they know as much as anybody else after drilling deeps for 7 years but the scoresheet says nil points and something has to change. If they flowed one, they could then have serious conversations re farm in, sale etc. In the interim, get production up to 5000 bopd by year end by drilling 5 or 6 shallow wells and drill them simultaneously. 2 a month ? why not they've got multiple rigs so let's get cracking.

Somm,

Not quite how i read the last update ie A7 no plans to drill this year, 'at a later date' and A5 later in the year. I can't believe they're persisting with A5, much that it's the best well ie it flowed, it's been side-tracked so many times, why is this time going to be any different ? Should probably just re-drill it .

Re Urals, last weeks spots were @ 76.4 average and keep the lights on number was $30 so by my maths, that's a heap of profit for 70% of current oil produced and if prices dipped then they'll move distribution away from Russian blends. If they are getting $75/$25 then that's $50m pa based on 2300bopd and we don't know the position on the previously shut in SY production. They are very profitable currently and FY 21 accounts ie the H2 numbers will hopefully show us that.

https://uk.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-urals-spot-futures-historical-data

With regards to short term oil production, you may be right but can they speed up the process if all rigs and all staff are focussed on the shallows. Will drill time accelerate with more heads focussed solely on MJF and SY ?

As always, patience required but at £63m m/cap, making £20m pa ? this sp is hugely disconnected from the fundamentals. The divi yields are going to look very attractive if the sp stays down here.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/World-Bank-Sees-High-Energy-Prices-For-Years-After-Russias-War-In-Ukraine.html

Not exactly rocket science but many factors affecting oil and the future trend will be high prices so our Casper just has to exploit the shallows and spend all dough on that task. Yes they have to complete last 2 deep appraisals to meet licence obligations but priority 1 is to get MJF to max daily rate and the same at SY, who knows, the new structure may add to production volume and an upgrade to reserves. 3AB, nothing in the sp for that so who knows what could be there and the barge could generate a lump.

Next few months pre first divi payment will see sp appreciation following FY numbers publication and continue the northwards trend if 142/SY first horizontal are successful.

Morning DD, i hope you're right and sizeable divis are coming. My only concern is taking too much cash for divis which will affect operational campaign. FY accounts will give us the clarity we need re financials. Costs will also be going down as no deep activity going on, 2 x deeps pa probably = $10m+, Tenge devaluation, albeit 4% now, still helps the cause with so many staff paid in Tenge. Will be interesting to see where salaries are too and whether they are still reduced.

ODS, if Putin dared to use chemical weapons, tactical nukes, we are all in trouble. All Casper can do is max out on production and take advantage of the higher oil prices. Will be able to use FY21 numbers to calculate earnings ytd in Q1 22 and calculate the likely cash generation and poss scale of divi payments.

The current market pricing is 2.855-2.9p, moved up from yesterdays 2.81p.

DaisyDo, i have no cloo as to their plans. i do know they've built up and are continuing to build up CAB so they have the funds to pay a sizeable chunk as first divi and the big boys and gals probably want their payday.

770k buys v 56k sells and 0.1p up, almost as good as a small qtrlt divi. Are some peeps waking up to the fact that they're likely to get a sizeable return on their money going forward. 4 x 5% chunks per annum, that's a decent amount of cash especially if we get sp appreciation to go with it.

Penny dropping ?

Those two 174/176k buy trades have warmed the market up followed by a little 36k. The bid has gone through the roof to 1.2m @ 2.73. market id 2.81-2.85p up to w00k sell @ 2.81p and 2.73p up to 1.2m. Max buy 150k @ 2.85p. Is this the last time we see 2p pricing ?

ODS, I believe Casper's biggest risk was from the recent unrest when there was a witch hunt for the elites on the wrong side of the argument. Casper are an absolute minnow and will poodle along and nowt they can do about geopolitics. They've stated that they have other options re oil distribution if the Urals route became too difficult, last comms from Clive stated Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan but no detail as usual.

To add, the fact that they're taking divis now, you could argue that they're taking the cash whilst it's there because of the political volatility but the divis have been on the radar for some time so it's not a knee jerk 'pay ne the money' action.

If they do get production up to 3500 bopd+ in the near term, the divis get bigger and the sp appreciates, it has too or divi yields will be stupid, that in itself will attract interest regardless of geopolitical tensions.

https://astanatimes.com/2022/04/kazakh-delegation-visits-us-to-reaffirm-strategic-partnership-discuss-impact-of-sanctions/

Highlights the difficulty Kaz has walking the political/economic tightrope. Strong relationship with the West but feeling sanctions pain and no choice but to trade with Russia as 2 countries are inter-connected economically and as stated most of the exports go through Belarus/Russia. They also have a good relationship with Ukraine so Kaz are in a difficult spot.

Interesting that half of the working population only earn $110 pm !! Oligarchs, the Kleptocrats that have robbed the country for years, maybe Tokayev can resolve a lot of this as detailed in his address to the people in March. Loads of plans to share the wealth, introduce political and social reform but i suppose time will tell. Casper are obviously benefit with the low cost of employment and the Tenge devaluation, helped even more.

Geopolitical tensions are affecting this investment but as said before, if Kaz are dragged in, by that time, we'll all be in trouble. Kaz want to increase their independence, to trade with partners across the globe but very difficult when there's a megalomaniac next door.

Divis coming, take the money and the future operational performance will decide the level of divi and the eventual re-rate of the stock.

As always, tick, tock.

Re Divis, I’ve posted my thoughts and I’ll take the money as it’s offered. If I wanted a Divi play, I’d have picked the players delivering the higher yields. You could take PSN as one of the best but they have seen 30% attrition to sp over last year.

Our Casper is high risk and for that high risk you expect multi-bagging rewards not 5-10% divi yield. Yep, we’ve now got multi-bagging potential if they start to build production and profitability, sp has to re-rate and substantially.

Next steps

142 result
FY 21 accounts end of May
152
SY first HDrill
Divi payment

They have to increase production and the easiest way to go that is drill more holes quickly and that’s the bit I don’t get with Divis now. Maybe KO is getting pressure from the WCP and they want some cash now. Time will tell whether this is a ‘take the cash’ exercise but in the interim, I’m staying with it and doing as they do.

Mike,

I’m waiting for the FY accounts and I may follow the money and take more pre first divi . On the face of it, looks like money for old rope.

Mike,

If you’ve got 7m or do, that’s a decent return and May as well join the greedy bods taking their slice. Sp has to move at done juncture otherwise the future yields will look very silly indeed if production numbers increase. Quite simply, something has to give.

DD, that's an interesting one. They've been building up cash reserves since the last financials provide for H1 2021. They produced 1245bopd average in H1 2021 and average crude price for that period was c $55. They had $0.3m in the bank and since then, things have changed dramatically. Production increased by over 1000 bopd with 154 success in July and 153 success in October. Crude prices average $80 in H2 and c$112 ytd in 2022. The cashflow transformation is considerable but i haven't made a stab of likely CAB (cash at bank) but it's going to be healthy.

To answer your question, i suspect that it could be 0.15p paid quarterly, increasing as production builds. They should be generating c $3.5-$4m revenue based on $75 Urals and $25 domestic so they can easily afford 0.15p and it wouldn't surprise me if the first one was higher. 85% of divis out to the CP/WCP and all tax efficiently, not a bad return and will be improving with every additional barrel pumped. I really do want them to wait and deploy all cash to operational activities but i sense the bigger boys want a return now, suppose u can't blame them.

MXP....lol. Shouldn't laugh but nothing like MXP, thank god. MXP fecked it up by sheer incompetence and were losing shedloads of dosh, the US management not doing a great job of working with the Kaz authorities. So much opportunity back then but just poorly managed.

Roxi or Casper, not saying that they've not ****ed it up to date, they have, especially on the deeps. Saving grace is that they've had Kazakh management that has managed to keep it going with a very low cost base. They're not going pop and are now very profitable, just got to do what they're meant to do and drill a load of bleedin shallow wells and build the cash. The CP/WCP are going to be paid handsomely with divis and the bigger the oproduction no, the bigger the divis, simples.

$79 average over last 21 days

https://m.uk.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-urals-spot-futures-historical-data

If they’re receiving these spot prices in the mid 70s, not the end of the world.

Mr C,If you've got stock in your trading account and ISA allowance available, you can do it anytime in the year ?

ODS, Not sales, definitely bednisa, especially if you did it online with Interactive Investor. I did 4 over the phone in minutes but paid £49 for the privilege. In hindsight that has backfired as i'd have got more in at these lower prices, i didn't believe we'd see these levels again, heyho.

If Casper do give 10%+ yield, it will probably attract attention, especially if they have a positive set of financials showing continued improvement and the likelihood of bigger divis going forward. The company are probably happy with SP, i mean CP &WCP not the other directors who will get zippo, apart from Limerick who actually owns some. At this level the yield will get noticed, first divi could be silly then switch the oil distribution to ramp up revenues with some additional production before paying the second. Will it by the catalyst for a re-rate ? probably and some positive PR will definitely help.