Member Info for KumKuat

Current market still very well bid -;

3.01-3.1p

Sell limits
Up to 550k @ 3.01
550-1.2m @ 2.91p

Max buy of 250k @ full ask.

Joe,

You're probably correct re ISA trade re not showing both sides and coincidentally, £20k. If it was , still a nice transaction moving 689k to the tax wrapper.

Paying divis and resources to do it ? Yep, probably last year they could see that things were picking up, maybe they thought the barge was likely and continued on the journey. Yep, agree re ppwk and organisation re voting this through, a bit of a dogs dinner !

I suppose payment of qtrly divis depends on what they're willing to pay. 0.15p per qtr puts c £5m into the Oraziman coffers and replaces the loan and annual interest, job done and only costs Casper £10m from cash flow. They could continue to do this at current levels without increasing production but i'm sure KO would like to see larger divis if things progress. Oil prices set to stay high and if they dropped as a result of peace in Ukraine, the Urals discount would reduce considerably or Casper will find other routes to market. Kazakhstan isn't going to live with a 30% discount to oil exports !

Is Casper a buy or sell ? It was a sell on news release and it was a buy after the selling done. This is traded buy PIs and unfortunately those who are spread betting or leveraged get burned and many who have been around for a while have decided to exit, can't blame them. Casper is a serial underperformer with a board that do what they want in the absence of any institutional investment that will hold the board to account. Many won't like it and i fully understand that but i still see the upside as otherwise i'd be offloading too. Next 3 months will tell me what i need to know and the no 1 priority is production up. If this becomes a cash cow for KO and WCP ie drawing regular divis and not building production rapidly then this isn't for me as far better places to lock up capital. Divi payments should be stalled until they are really throwing off cash but who knows, KO & co may be skint and £7.5m pa goes a long way in Kaz.

One day Rodders.

Nice one WM, let’s hope the next 3 months aren’t Walter Mitty !

Beynon, I’m sure they’ll change route if needed. Seems worthwhile now when losing $16m pa !!

7.42m total trades
BednIsa 1.37m
Net trades 6.05m
Sells 1.8m
Buys 4.25m

The 689k trade at 12.48 looks like a buy as market was 2.82-2.9p at that time. Somebody(s) were hoovering up stock and market was very well bid at close as I could sell 1.3m @3.01p.

This will trade north again next week and continue on the lead up to Divi.

Important to keep a tab on Urals discount. 2022 up to the war on 24/2 prices were almost at parity. 24th to end of Feb averaging $8 down and March $26. March crude average was c$115 so should have been receiving c $85-$90. April probably $70 and next move depends on contd sanctions. The Chinese and Tissusn friends will be stockpiling on cheap Urals !!

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1298092/urals-brent-price-difference-daily/

This looks more accurate and ties into Casper comms. They'll need to look at other routes if this worsens, i'm sure they are well down the road of doing that as per last comms re Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan. China, India and ****stan would love to have light sweet crude from a willing seller !!

Tyr,

Re BednIsa. Ring them up and pay the £49 as opposed to your 7.99 online fee. I've done 3 now and they were all stuck.

This is a serious game and serious money to be made/lost and as always, only one person to carry the can. No room for victim mentality as only one person making decisions.

The announcement was not what I was expecting although I’d written off A8. The additional disappointing news, 142 halted and barge not chartered. As far as I’m concerned, the company remains hugely undervalued based on shallows only and that’s what we have to make our decisions on. Nobody loses money until they sell and that’s down to the investor to make that call.

Facts
Deeps are shelved for now, thank feck for that
Shallows - come to their senses and going to drill the arze out of MJF and SY.
Crude/Urals - discounted which is a pain and if continues then they have stated other routes possible eg Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan.
Barge - disappointing no sale or charter
Current production - 2142 bopd, with 142 offline and no SY yet
Divis - going ahead. Much that I hate this, they need cash to fund it so production has to go up or they loan money, I believe that won’t happen.

Taking out the emotion, I’m looking at the numbers and as far as I can see, they’re delivering 2142 bopd at 70:30 split at $75/$80 gross. 2 years ago we were 1300bopd at $20/6 and the price today isn’t much higher. They have SY to add and thank god they are now going to focus on building production and cash and come back to the deeps.

3rd BnIsa done today, 685k a far better result that the 550ks done and I’ve added another 363k at 2.89p as this is way oversold. At this rate, won’t be long before revenue exceeds m/cap.

Investing/trading is ruthless game and no room for blame. Regardless of anyone else’s opinion I see this as a buy as production and cash will build as they’ve come to their senses on the real priorities .

https://topoilnews.com/

One good thing, i may get all my trading stock into the ISA after that cracker. Al Marris must've signed at gunpoint !

...lol. Clive strikes again. Paying divis...lol

Was that Interactive Investor by any chance ?

To add, can peeps stop buying as i want the cheapest prices for BnI executions !! Sell a chunk, that would help :)

Thank you DD.

Yep, BednIsa season and transferring excess residue that doesn't fit into other accounts, all takes time. Did you execute over the phone or do it online ?

To add, i really don't get why the CE had a $2.8m sticker in the books ? If they have flogged it or were to flog it, it obviously would generate a considerable gain and corp tax would be paid. If they slotted it in @ original $25m then obviously a much smaller tax bill.

Re cash to pay the divis, got to have done a deal on the barge and we'll know soon enough.

Turn positive, now that would be a seismic change. BednIsa, not possible til tomorrow as zippo allowances but £80k won't cover it BUT i'll get a chunk in, who knows, sp may crash and i'll get the lot in before the truly fantastic news hits.

As stated many times, too early for Divis or SBBs, do that next year when there's excess cash sloshing around after all operational success they delivered. Q2 results should tell us all we need to know ;)

CC,

$250K...LOL, have another little look, $250m and P&L deficit of $223m so housekeeping gives them $27m, the headroom to issue divis from reserves BUT where's the cash coming from.

Et al,

I never understood the barge conversion @ 1.75p and $2.8m entry in the balance sheet. Deal done @ $25m at an agreed 12p strike price and 160m shares. Disastrously for all share recipients, the sp crashed to c 1.75p and their 160m shares ain't looking to pretty at current values. Another strange one that Casper made the BSheet entr @ $2.8m as i'm sure they could have valued at the original deal value of $25m. Probably stock exchange rules but hey, that's now history. One thing that is being missed is that the CE has zippo value priced into company value as currently it's a cost not a profit generator and we're going to find out whether it's a 'white elephant or not. The original owners inc KO son are hugely underwater with the deal at 12p so why did they do it in the first place ? Must've thought that the Casper sp was going north and that they be able to charter the barge.

One little flaw in the plan, raising/generating the cash to pay divis and deliver operational success. Something has to give as currently, the divi payments are going to please many. Get the wells flowing and get the sp up, problem solved !

https://astanatimes.com/2022/04/kazakhstan-eu-relations-on-the-spotlight-in-brussels/

CC, sounds like you know they’ve ****ed up A8 again ! If they have messed it, it’s definitely time for a rethink as they’re obviously not competent enough to bring it home. They are completing the remaining 2 wells to give themselves time to do the remedial work on all wells if they haven’t ruined them with endless sidetracks. The issue is that the real money will be made as OIP converts to reserves and MJF has c 15m P1 and 23m P2. SY not known neither is 3AB but we’re flogging that if it’s worth flogging. The real money is in the deeps ie the 10 bagger Adrian’s alluded to, the shallows will only give us a third of that at best.

Not expecting fireworks , probably a couple of Roman Candles and a couple of damp squibs unfortunately.

TT

I like the ten bagger statement BUT they need the deeps for that and i believe the next news means the wait will continue, hope i'm wrong. The shallow journey will generate healthy revenues but the reserves and future multibags comes from converting OIP to reserves, i believe that journey goes on.