Round Up.19 Nov 2023 04:54
Following release of the 7th November RNS, I exchanged opinions with a small group of knowledgeable shareholders. Our views were about 80% in agreement -
* The T&T news had come earlier than expected, an immediate news release was necessitated, and it was thought advisable to mention the status of operations in Morocco, even though this was a little premature.
* If all clearances for testing were in place, and equipment and crews were available, you would not waste time and money leaving things on hold, but be testing at the earliest opportunity. If that were to be more than a week away, you would demobilise and save money.
* The only hold up was stated to be the MOU. Again, you would not be mentioning this in this way unless it was pretty much agreed – our collective view was that it was just awaiting ONHYM sign-off.
The conclusion was that the next RNS announcing an agreed MOU and commencement of testing would be either the same week (ie by Friday 10th), or the following week just ended – all agreed that something would have published by now, and most are perplexed that nothing has been.
After a further round of discussion over the last couple of days, the general view is that the delay is caused by one of two reasons – either ONHYM need to seek higher approval (why? - see my post of 26th October 09.03 - https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/keithoz/?page=3 ) or that this offtake agreement is now part of a larger and more comprehensive arrangement.
Quite a few folk have contacted the company to complain about the ambiguity of recent news releases, the apparent lack of coherent strategy, and the undefined or missed timetables. I understand that Paul has taken this on board, so I am hopeful of something more definitive being issued shortly – exactly when, I am now reluctant to guess.
In short, it is understood that expectations have not been met, but there is good reason for a delay. To those feeling concerned, may I remind you:
* Paul has more knowledge and experience of Moroccan hydrocarbon geology than anyone on Earth.
* Lonny has more experience of gas sales into the Moroccan market than anyone on Earth.
* Lonny & Moyra have drilled more gas wells in Morocco than anyone on Earth, 85% of which have found gas, which is an extraordinary record.
* Irrespective of testing, there is one whole lot of gas at Guercif.
* The Moroccan & European markets are in dire need of gas supply.
* Paul & Lonny have substantial PRD shareholdings and options, their objectives are aligned with ours.
* The NEDs, who have relevant O&G deal negotiation experience, have options that vest specifically on release of MOU-3 test results.
As always in O & G exploration, a little more patience is required. I do sympathise, being a somewhat impatient person myself 😕.
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