Member Info for KeithOz

@WB. I did not imply this is a good thing. I presented this simply as information - publicly reported views by energy market analysts. It is certainly bad if you are one of the 1M Palestinian children caught in an escalating conflict not of your making. I hope for both moral and economic reasons that other states will exert their influence to resolve this long-running issue in a way that ends further loss of life and misery.

From an article in this morning's FT:

"Even after Israel’s demand for people to leave northern Gaza, markets still aren’t really aggressively pricing in an escalation beyond Israel [and] Gaza, otherwise we would be higher in oil and way, way higher in gas”, said David Hewitt, a consultant at Hewitt Energy Perspectives. European gas prices hit their highest point since February on Friday."

"We’re headed to $100 [a barrel] no matter what this quarter, said Joe DeLaura, global energy strategist at Rabobank".

"Prices could easily get a lot worse [higher] before we find some stabilisation,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank".

This might help. I have ranged it to show all the MOU drill sites. You need to adjust the date range on the left each time you view, then 'apply'. Currently takes about 5 days for new data to appear.

https://viirs.skytruth.org/apps/heatmap/flaringmap.html#lat=34.2696&lon=-3.34776&zoom=12&offset=15

I don't see how this could be classed as inside info. PRD has made it clear to the market they are confident of good flow rates, but obviously no one knows today what those rates will be, since testing will presumably not start until today at the earliest. Similarly, it has been clearly communicated to the market that the Cory Moruga deal is being worked on, they are confident of tying up the loose ends with the T&T authorities, and that the new backstop date is end November.

Nothing is certain at this stage - testing could go wrong due to various engineering problems, and CM could not get finalised for unexpected legal reasons.

It is significant that these options are issued now, and are contingent upon results. Rigless testing results should be available within 2-4 weeks, dependant upon your interpretation of 'results'. The long stop for completion of the Cory Moruga acquisition was moved to end November, seven weeks away. The company appears to be sending a clear message that both events will be positive and on time. There will be a lot of people kicking themselves for missing out on this.

@Dave R - Satellite - you may find this interesting background reading re. satellite oil & gas remote sensing technology:

https://www.scotforth.com/index.php/exploration-methodology

@ Welshpread All the best to you, Mrs W, and the upcoming W-let. As has been said many times, may all your troubles be little ones! My two are now big troubles😍

Part 2.

Traps are of three main kinds – anticlines (inverted pudding basin), tilted fault blocks, and diapirs (not to be confused with diapers). The first two are present across some of the Guercif licences, but most definitely not all, which will greatly reduce the volume potential. Diapirs – underlying the Jurassic is a thick layer of Triassic salt. This acts like a viscous liquid – it is less dense than the overlying rock and over millions of years will rise towards the surface forming underground salt domes and walls. H/cs become trapped against these impervious domes – this is the most common trap style in the Gulf of Mexico, where as you know, there is an awful lot of h/cs. Some of us have strong suspicions that there are many of these in the Guercif region. They can be identified by low gravity readings, as well as HSSI data.

I suspect that GRH has HSSI & other data indicating h/cs over much of the Guercif region including the area of buried & outcropping Jurassic – unfortunately this does not clearly indicate depth, so a strong reading will not differentiate between near-surface Neogene (MOU-Fan & Middle Sands), deeper Jurassic such as MOU-NE, or underlying Triassic, which is the main h/c source across North Africa. Graham – please correct me if I am wrong here.

One final point of possible confusion over the recent volumetric calculations: in the 11th July RNS, it said "The top Jurassic carbonate objective was reached at 1135 metres TVD MD". I am sure that the depth reference here was not to the top of the Jurassic, but to the top of the MOU-NE target, (the Jurassic carbonate objective) which is in fact towards the base of the Lower Jurassic.

So, 90 TCF in the Jurassic? – I think unlikely, since much of this rock volume does not have suitable reservoir characteristics nor trapping geometry. 90 TCF including the deeper strata? Just possible, but a lot more work needs to be done, and this will be by a company with a lot more than three staff, and a much bigger bank balance than £10M.

Part 1.

GRH has previously pointed out the vast volume of rock (much of it of Jurassic age) that has been potentially exposed to gas & oil migration, and Wacky has given us a calculation suggesting that up to 90 TCF of gas may be present. In order that investors come to their own conclusions, perhaps it would help if we had a brief recap of the factors that need to be present in order to get an economic hydrocarbon (h/c) deposit.

When you see a geological chance of success (gcos) calculated in a CPR, this is determined by multiplying together the %age chance of the following being in place: h/c source; migration pathway; suitable reservoir rock; a structural trap; and a seal.

For the Guercif Jurassic, we know that rock rich in organic matter has sunk to a sufficient depth to be cooked into both oil & gas (remember the geothermal gradient map I linked on X). This was then uplifted again by tectonic action (twice), which also caused extensive faulting that allowed gas to migrate upwards when the Guercif region was squashed between moving tectonic plates (several times). We also know that at the top of the Jurassic sequence, there are thick layers of fine-grained marl and siltstones which act as a seal - confirmed by gas still being in place at MOU-4. This leaves us with the need for suitable reservoir rock and a structural trap, and this is where it gets tricky.

Reservoirs first. Much of the huge thickness of Jurassic rocks to the E & SE of Guercif town consists of massive limestone, which normally has low porosity & permeability. This will only become reservoir material if extensively fractured, so far I have not seen evidence that this is the case. This will reduce the available volumes considerably. The MOU-NE target is an ancient reef structure – you all know what coral reefs look like, they are full of holes of all shapes and sizes, so once buried make excellent h/c reservoirs. They get even better when exposed to weathering – the holes get bigger and better connected – the 'enhanced porosity development' referred to in past RNSs. The third kind of limestone is Dolomite, which has been chemically altered over time, often causing high porosity & permeability. It is estimated that 80% of all h/c deposits are in reefs, dolomites & fractured limestones, so this is what PRD are looking for in the current field trip. Once they have a good idea of where such potential reservoirs occur in the rock sequence, it will help clarify the seismic readings, and optimise drill positioning.

Should really add that TAF-1X still had gas shows, despite being 50km away from MOU-NE, in a poor structure, with sub-optimal reservoir, substantially down dip & lower in altitude (remember gas rises). You might like to have a think about how that relates to 1. the potential for MOU-NE, and 2. the possible area over which gas might be found in the Guercif licences.

GRH on X:

"ROB did some odd jobs today. They involved a variety of kit. The most effective of which was a VERY OLD Phillips headed screwdriver. It was the biggest one in the toolbox. It worked better than expected.

Me on X:

"Translation: TAF-1X was the deepest & second oldest well drilled at Guercif, by Phillips in 1979. The only one to go through the Jurassic & into the Triassic. Some gas shows indicate regional potential, but placement was poor - small structure, not carbonate reef, porosity only 9%. PRD will do a lot better with the next one."

Jimmy is quite correct, I was just about to say the same. Unfortunately for this theory, TAF-1X was drilled into a separate structure and encountered different Jurassic strata, that had a porosity of only 9%.

On the plus side, there were gas shows in TAF-1X, which was drilled some 50km southeast of MOU-4, indicating potential over a very wide area. If you are looking for some additional upside TCFs, I would also refer you to the original CPR that clearly stated ONHYM's view that beneath the Jurassic there is significant sub-salt (Triassic) potential, particularly to the east & southeast of Guercif town. See pp. 18-20 (pp. 192 - 194 of whole document)

https://www.predatoroilandgas.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Predator-Prospectus.pdf

Apologies, should be approx $500M per annum. Fat finger.

@FabPhil. I think that you are under-estimating the flow rates from MOU-3 for 3 reasons:

1. Methodology showed how he derived gas flows per metre, which were dependent upon choke size. The lowest flow rate was for the smallest choke (as you would correctly assume), You suggested a flow rate of 24.9mmcfgd for 43m, which does not work for me, since that would give a rate of only 0.58mmcfgd/m. The flow rates given by Methodology for the various choke sizes (all x/64") are 24 - 0.74mmcfgd/m; 26 - 0.86; 32 - 1.82; 40 - 2.07; 48 - 2.98.

2. Smaller choke sizes would generally be used for smaller reservoirs. I would not consider MOU-3 to have anything like a 'small' reservoir, so I would expect that at least a 32/64" choke would be used. This would move the flow rate up to 1.82, over three times the rate you have suggested.

3. The thicker the reservoir sand, the trend was for a greater rate of flow per vertical metre, so we could perhaps move the flow rate up to 2mmcfgd per metre. Given 43m, that gives 86mmcfgd.

That suggests to me a potential revenue of something like $700M per annum. Just from the main interval in MOU-3.

Of course we all hope that other Arab countries are not drawn into this conflict. If a Middle East oil embargo were to result as happened previously, a resource within a country that has good relations with Israel, the US and Europe suddenly becomes of great value.

@Legalwolf, if you are a lawyer, you will know what this means. According to Pliny the Elder, it was originally said by the artist Apelles of Kos to a cobbler who criticised his paintings, and now has Proverb status.

"You (lawyer) at 22.59: "Do I see any positives worthy of discussion? My honest answer to that is NO, I do not. Not at this present moment in time. I do not believe the geological COS are high".

"Me (geologist): "You are either talking uninformed nonsense; or deliberately attempting to mislead people".

"In our view, natural gas prices are reaching a turning point. Gas spiked to decade highs last spring following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, only to fall back on milder-than-normal winter weather. Instead of running out of gas, traders worried about running out of storage as prices collapsed to near-all-time lows.

During market panic or euphoria, investors make the mistake of linearly extrapolating current trends. As a result, they fail to see the ground shifting underneath them and miss out on excellent opportunities. Natural gas represents a classic buying opportunity, and we believe investors are again focused on all the wrong issues."

We also need to correct Nigel's second sentence - "seismological"??? - surely he is not expecting PRD to do a study of earthquakes?

This morning's (my time) comment from Cube on Twitterex:

Delay or no delay.

Testing currently or not testing.

Its all speculation.

Its also largely immaterial.

Paul, Lonny and Moyra will be working flat out to monetise the Moroccan asset the *best* way possible.

The FINAL outcome is material.

Let's wait and see 🕖

Capricorn at that time had a mix of hydrocarbons, with roughly two thirds as gas. Reserves & Resources were equal to 420 BCF. The deal valued Capricorn at $388M. Anyone want to guess at PRD's resources by the end of 2023?

I have put a few phrases into CAPITALS - sorry to shout, but it seems some need to listen more closely. You can see that just over 10 months ago, Paul was suggesting that if high end expectations were met, PRD would pursue a sale of the Moroccan assets. The quotes I have lifted from subsequent RNSs indicate that not only have high end expectations been met, but been exceeded on almost every parameter.

RNS 08 November 2022

We have multiple gas prospects in this area of the Guercif licence for further "running room" without any requirement to expand our licence portfolio.....[There is potentially] a case for the higher end of the net contingent gas resources to the Company of 708 BCF, as defined in the independent SLR Consulting Ireland Ltd. ("SLR") Competent Persons Report ("CPR"), (February 2020 and January 2022 "MOU-4" updated). IF THIS WERE THE CASE THE COMPANY WOULD NOT HESITATE TO INITIATE A CORPORATE TRANSACTION in order to monetise shareholder value. In the current climate gas assets attract a significant premium as they can contribute to security of energy supply and the Energy Transition to help stabilise the near-term cost of energy."

RNS 17 March 2023

Placing to raise £2M, " To fully fund the MOU-3 well targeting Contingent and additional Prospective Resources in a single well, ACCELERATING THE POTENTIAL FOR MONETISATION THROUGH A SALES PROCESS IN 2023."

RNS 27 June 2023

"The MOU-3 well has VALIDATED OUR PREDRILL UPSIDE FORECAST for sand development in respect of the main Moulouya Fan target.....The shallow gas potential of MOU-3 HAS EXCEEDED ALL PRE--DRILL EXPECTATIONS".

"The MOU-4 well has confirmed the presence of the Moulouya Fan SOUTHEAST OF ITS PREVIOUSLY MAPPED EXTENT. ... The M1 Sand interval HAD NOT PREVIOUSLY BEEN CONSIDERED AS A RESERVOIR TARGET ....The MOU-3 drilling results also confirmed the POTENTIAL TO EXTEND the presence of possible shallow gas to the west of MOU-3 and northwest of MOU-1."

RNS 13 July 2023

"The MOU-4 NuTech petrophysical analysis has highlighted a number of intervals to be likely gas sands, including some shallow sands that were NOT PREVIOUSLY CONSIDERED to be potential drilling targets....The recognition by NuTech of likely good quality thin gas reservoirs at the top of the Jurassic carbonate is PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT in the context of the large Jurassic structural closure."

Perhaps it is now a little more obvious why I think the radio silence has little to do with customs delays, and more to do with one or more Confidentiality / Non-Disclosure Agreements being in place.