RE: He118 Oct 2023 09:25
Folks here are making forecasts for the share price based on what it was thirty months ago. You are wasting your time.
In case you hadn't noticed, the world has changed beyond recognition since Tai-1 was being drilled. It is not just HE1 share price that is low, it is every other risk asset - take a look at the overall AIM market chart. Two years ago, money was free; now with highest inflation for decades it costs an arm and a leg to borrow anything, assuming you are able to borrow anything at all. We have one long-running war that has screwed up just about every market you can think of, and another even more potentially disruptive one started last week. The world's largest commodity purchaser and processor (China) is falling apart at the seams.
Risk assets will remain out of favour for the foreseeable future, and HE1 will remain a risk asset until a commercially viable quantity of helium is proven. Once this occurs, HE1 will change overnight from dodgy risk asset to a desirable provider of quantifiable positive cash flow. The share price (or more usefully the market capitalisation) will initially depend upon how much helium is present, at what concentration, at what pressure, on cost of extraction and transport, selling price, capital costs for getting up & running, and timing of all of this.
Perhaps you should come up with your views on those factors and then do the sums, using a standard NPV/IRR spreadsheet. I suggest you discount using at least 12% pa, given the relatively unstable jurisdiction, and the dodgy state of the world. Divide your 10-year NPV12 by 4, and that is how much an acquiror is likely to pay for the whole lot. Divide that figure by the number of shares you expect to be in issue at that time, and there is your reasoned target price.
Just saying "It should be 10p by xxx" is just p-ing into the wind.
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