Member Info for KeithOz

Takes care to be totally anonymous - major red flag. From his biography:

" I studied at University in London and, since then, I've been all over the world."

Which University? Was he actually enrolled on a course? If so, studying hat? Did he get a qualification? Doing what all over the world? Sitting in girlie bars smoking a bong?

"I know quite a bit about leasing mineral rights and obtaining government licences and permits, plus I am very familiar with the process of acquiring seismic, then drilling, completing and placing into production oil and gas wells."

Highly unlikely - all of these are separate specialist jobs. What is 'quite a bit'? What does 'very familiar with the process' mean? Never actually done any of this, but watched a couple of Youtube videos?

"I'm married and live with my wife and our cat".

Me too, but I don't try to fleece people for £1200 a year by telling them to buy on spud and sell before TD. Truly laughable.

They say you wait hours for a London bus, then three come along together - here's post #3.

We had previously discussed here the possibility that NewMed Energy was in line to buy PGVM. The rationale was that BP & ADNOC were finalising buying 50% of NewMed for $2 billion, NewMed were keen to expand beyond Israel, and that they were already in discussions with ONHYM about acquisition of Moroccan assets with the $2 bn.

Two things have happened since then. Firstly, independent assessors cast doubt on the value of assets being acquired, putting a question mark over the deal proceeding. Then Hamas did what they did, and Israel responded as they have. NewMed's Tamar gas field, its key cash generator, has been closed as a precaution against Hamas attack. I would be very surprised if the proposed deal is finalised. This would mean that NewMed no longer has cash for acquisitions, and sale of a Moroccan asset to what is perceived to be an Israeli company would be unacceptable in the current political environment.

I am reliably informed that NewMed were aware of all the goings on in Guercif, and therefore assume that BP & ADNOC were also. My money is on an acquisition of PGVM by BP/ADNOC direct. They know the project, are actively seeking new gas assets, have plenty of cash, and are viable partners from a political viewpoint.

@Buffin - Under ONHYM rules, it is allowable to ringfence an individual field, but there does not seem to be a definition of 'field'! It's complicated when MOU-3 and MOU-4 both tap into two different structures, especially if (as I believe but it is not yet proven) all those structures are connected. While it could be possible to retain an MOU-Fan based CNG operation, Paul has said on several occasions that he would prefer to sell all or a majority stake in PGVM.

I did not want to post anything unless I was pretty sure that it was more than just valueless speculation. Whether what follows is of value or not I will leave to your individual judgement - thinking of which, I think it is a little unfair for anonymous keyboard warriors to make personal attacks on individuals who do not conceal their identity or experience when they are trying to post helpful information. Anyway:

The T & T government agreed the Cory Moruga deal a couple of weeks earlier than expected. This is an improved deal for PRD, with sweet light crude Contingent Resources acquired at less than 50¢ per barrel. PRD were obligated to RNS this, and added what they hoped was a comforting paragraph at the end, explaining that a big juicy deal was being finalised, and that testing would also be the start of gas production. Unfortunately, it wasn't worded as clearly or positively as it should have been (probably ONHYM influence).

I think, but do not know, that the offtaker is Cérame Super. This GSA will be very profitable for PRD but will only use part of the potential gas from the MOU-Fan. The flow testing is not to support this GSA, but to determine how much surplus gas will be available for sending down the pipeline to Europe. I expect that MOU-3 testing has started this weekend, and that everything else should now be signed & sorted and already with ONHYM for approval of the announcements. I assume that PRD will be able to finalise the wording on Monday, with RNS on Tuesday. There is no reason why this should not include full details of the GSA, the testing process, CNG plant financing. and further drilling between now and the end of the year.

So Transformational Event #1 (Tuesday 14th November) is the forward profit flow from the GSA, TE#2 (late Nov/early Dec) is the amount of surplus gas flow and who is buying it, and TE#3 (late Dec) will be MOU-5/TIT-1/JUR-1. TE#4 will be sale of PGVM early next year. Obviously this is all just speculation on my part and should not be relied upon for any investment decision.

@Aligator. At 09.18 on 07 November I (geologist, not a 'downhole engineer') wrote:

"Two things seem encouraging here:

* Drilling encountered a lot of lumps of weathered basement rock (gneiss), indicating that there is a good transition zone of broken material - this means much greater surface area of helium-generating material, so more gas can be released,

* They started losing drilling mud very soon after hitting the unweathered basement rock - an indication of substantial fracturing of otherwise solid material - again this will facilitate release of gas fand/or increase the overall porosity for trapping helium.

Any more FUD I can counter before the share price climbs far above the reach of your pocket money?

It was last week.

Getting gas (of any kind) out of a fractured basement can be a bit of a gamble - just ask former shareholders of Hurricane Energy. Porosity can appear good, but it is the alignment and interconnectedness (is there such a word?) and even shape of the pores that determines whether you will get commercial gas flow. Two things seem encouraging here:

* Drilling encountered a lot of lumps of weathered basement rock (gneiss), indicating that there is a good transition zone of broken material - this means much greater surface area of helium-generating material, so more gas can be released,

* They started losing drilling mud very soon after hitting the unweathered basement rock - an indication of substantial fracturing of otherwise solid material - again this will facilitate release of gas fand/or increase the overall porosity for trapping helium.

Seems a very muted reaction to a significant degree of de-risking here and at NHE. Bought some more.

That's not at all what I was expecting. Seems very odd - I assumed the GSA was dependent upon test results, not the other way round. Must learn to read more slowly. Can only assume that the Cory Moruga payment has come out of the testing budget, and an upfront payment for the GSA needs to replace it. Not very happy, I'm sure others won't be either. PG must have very good reason to do this, just would be nice to know what is really going on.

Sorry, misread the last bit!

@Predfan - why do you think that? There is no suggestion anywhere that is the case.

Didn't expect this first.

Most interesting is that PRD will not pay a further $1M to CEG, nor will CEG have the opportunity to buy back in 25% in the future. Also interesting to see that all 8 Herrera sands targets (which are all producing on the licence next door) are to be drilled & appraised, and the feild development programme has been approved for up to 20 wells, initially for primary oil production, later with CO2EOR.

@Dai. 1000 millidarcy = 1 darcy. Loose gravel has a permeability of about 1000 md. Helium, being a very small molecule, can cope with a less permeable reservoir than methane or oil, so even 100 md is pretty good. This is an outstanding result.

Since we are dealing with the same charged system, contrary to what some here are saying, NHE results do have a bearing on likely HE1 results. NHE have found:

* Helium shows at all 6 reservoir intervals.

* More than twice the expected net reservoir thickness - 45.7m found, 20m expected.

* Good intact seals.

* Excellent porosity (figure not quoted).

* Excellent permeability - in one case in excess of a whole Darcy (look it up).

* Helium concentrations in the range expected in 2022 CPR - which for Mbelele was 2.7%

* These samples have been contaminated by air, so expect downhole samples currently at the lab to be higher Helium concentration.

* Only the Upper and Middle Lake Beds have been drilled - the big stuff is in the lower formations that have been drilled at Tai-3.

I reiterate a hold tight position, I really don't care that someone here chooses to respond with offensive remarks - I think it is a safe bet that they are not currently wealthy, nor are likely to be.

@Joanne - just for clarity, when gas volumes are stated (in a CPR or here) it is the volume at standard temperature & pressure (0°C, 1 Bar / 100kPa). The in-ground volume is assigned a gas expansion factor (GEF or Bg) to account for the increased temperature & pressure. For example, the MOU-1 main reservoir had an estimated GEF of 140 based on the assumed conditions at that depth, meaning that the gas was squashed into 1/140th of its above-ground volume. On drilling, gas was encountered at 2700psi, which was a lot higher than expected - this overpressure has resulted in an upwards revision of the GEF to 186 (1 Bar equals roughly 14.5psi).

Overpressured wells can be problematic for drilling, but good for economic return!

The new licence applications on trend with Eyasi are very interesting. I really think you traders who risk life & limb to scrape off your 10% on a bent halfpenny change are missing the big picture. This company is a simple buy & hold - the hold being until there is a massive offer by an international major for the whole lot. Just my opinion of course. And Lorna's, I suspect.

I hope everybody understands that potential gas generated does not equal commercially recoverable gas!

CORRECTION.

The numbers derived from the data I presented earlier looked crazy, so I've double-checked the source for volume of methane per km³. It's clearly wrong, where it says BCM it should be BCF, so is out by a factor of 35. My profuse apologies for causing any over-excitement.

To cross-check, I've done things by a different route - so here's a detailed calculation for cfg per km³ of source rock, where I have taken detailed basic numbers from a reputable source, the British Geological Survey -

https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/509720/1/OR14056.pdf Section 3.1, p.10.

* Methane content mg per g of source rock: Fair - 3 to 5 mg/g, Good - 5 to 10 mg/g . Let's take 5mg/g. (conservative!)

* Rock density, assume 2.5 = 2.5 million g per m³

* 2.5M x 0.005 = 12.5g methane per m³

* Methane density = 0.657kg/m³

* 12.5 / 657 =0.19 m³ methane per m³ source rock

= 190mm m³ methane per km³ source rock

* 35.3 ft³ per m³ = 6.7 BCF per km³

Using the relatively conservative numbers provided previously for the Guercif graben, that comes to about 25 TCF, which looks a lot more sensible. NB - this is a conservative estimate for gas produced from the source rock, which is different to the GIIP.

Apologies again, think I need an early evening coffee.

... See you in the funny farm.

Since the TDFI is approaching the 50% level, may I add a few comments to this highly interesting thread started by our friend Seabright on 15 Oct 2023 19:49? I suspect what I have to say will push the Indicator into crisis mode. I suggest you first re-read Seabright's post, key sentence: "Yes it’s huge, it’s all connected by major deep faults and it’s very hot in the kitchen", then consider GRH's short but to the point view repeated yesterday: "It's all BIG. It's all CONNECTED".

You will quickly appreciate that to form hydrocarbons, you need heat + organic material.

🦕 Heat

Some may be asking what is the heat in the kitchen all about? For the organic material in sediments to turn into oil, it needs to be 'cooked' at around 60-175°C - this is the 'oil window'. Gas is cracked from oil at around 175-225°C - the 'gas window'. This usually happens at considerable depth within the Earth's crust. I have posted a couple of charts on X:

https://twitter.com/KQuick20704342/status/1720617262783008771

showing the window temperatures at normal depths, plus a map showing the rather exceptional conditions around Guercif. How exceptional? I dug up this rather obscure paper showing a staggering 110°C per km depth just NE of Guercif.

http://www.lovegeothermal.org/pdf/IGAstandard/WGC/2010/1162.pdf

My view is that because of the high temperatures at shallow depths, we will see mostly gas rather than oil - this is good, since there is no functional oil infrastructure (pipeline, etc) in Morocco, and the only oil refinery has been mothballed for years. We wouldn't want an oil asset that is potentially stranded.

🦕 Organic material

Basically dead plant & animal matter deposited along with the other stuff making up sediments - usually expressed as %TOC (total organic carbon). Here's some info from a scientific paper that's also referenced in the PRD 2022 CPR under S. 4.1.2 - Source Rocks: p.1478 of Beauchamp, W. 1996 (very long link, suggest you just Google it) :

"Pliensbachian source rocks yield total organic carbon values between 1.66 and 3.87%" and "Maastrichtian source rocks yield high total organic values ∼18% and have excellent potential for generating hydrocarbons"

🦕 How much gas?

A useful rule of thumb is that for every 1% TOC, 1km³ of source rock will yield 3-12 BCM of methane (= 105-420 BCF). I'm not going to do this sum, for fear of ending up in the same loony bin as GRH if he reveals how much gas he thinks there is around Guercif. Why not assume the Guercif graben is 15 x 50km (it's bigger), with sediments 5km deep (they're deeper), with a TOC of 1% (it's more).

In the next couple of weeks, we will have confirmation whether all this gas has been trapped (it has) and can be flowed economically (it will) and if someone is prepared to buy it (they will).

Everything (in brackets) is my own view, you should not consider it reliable information on which to base an investment.

See you in the fun

@Voskos, just seen your second question on this subject: "is it reasonable to assume that the £1m we get back will offset against the £1m bonus?"

PRD do not 'get anything back' nor receive a discovery bonus - there is only one payment, and it is paid to Morocco by PRD. It can however be used to offset future tax. The fact that PRD need to pay $1M within 30 days in order to obtain an Exploitation Licence is the underlying reason for delaying declaring a discovery until all the ducks are in a row - including a gas sales agreement with at least a $1M upfront payment.