Member Info for KeithOz

"Nothing will happen here untill (sic) later this year". Obviously, that is correct - since "later this year" includes tomorrow.

@Oilyfred. RNS 30th November 2023:

"The Company will maintain an opportunistic strategy with respect to potential sale or farmout of some project equity where market conditions are conducive to such transactions and the commercial terms are attractive. Given that the Company is well-financed to deliver all of its current near-term firm strategic objectives for its substantially de-risked oil and gas portfolio, any dilution of project equity would need to be a compelling value proposition for shareholders."

That doesn't sound like a placing to me. Also there is no need for one - same RNS (my emphasis):

"* PGVL IS FULLY FUNDED to execute a pilot CNG development project (the "CNG Project") in Guercif.

* The previously announced acquisition of TRex Holdings Trinidad Limited ("TRex") and the Cory Moruga field WAS COMPLETED USING DISCRETIONARY CASH on the Company's balance sheet THAT WAS SURPLUS to the CNG Project financial requirement.

* Initial development of the Cory Moruga field will require only LOW COST workovers of up to four existing wells and IS FULLY FUNDED BY THE DISCRETIONARY CASH on the Company's balance sheet.

* By the second half of 2024 TRex is expected to be GENERATING SIGNIFICANT POSITIVE CASH FLOW from workover operations."

My father quite correctly described lotteries as a tax on the foolish. It doesn't surprise me at all that you play them.

GRH on X:

"ROB regards the #PRD deal on Cory Moruga

As a straightforward, conventional oil play

Close to :

1...Infrastructure

2...Very willing market

3...1P status"

11:26 PM · Jan 7, 2024

My response:

May I add:

4...Unlike most of T & T heavy oil, Snowcap-1 flowed sweet, light crude - 37° API.

5...CPR is likely to show a minimum of 20 MMBbl

6...Purchase price of US$ 0.40c or less per in-ground Bbl onshore is the cheapest deal I can recall.

I expect the CPR for Cory-Moruga this week, as a taster here is an IPR - Incompetent Person's Report - which may give some background to what we could see.

Trinidad has been an interesting location for the last couple of hundred million years. About 150 Ma (million years ago) the North & South American tectonic plates separated, forming the Gulf of Mexico - poor little T & T was left hanging on to the outer edge of the S American plate. For the next 100M years or so it was the Cretaceous period, with lots of organic material deposited in warm shallow seas. Then around 80 Ma, the South American plate split from the African Plate, forming the South Atlantic Ocean (N. Atlantic formed earlier) and once again T & T was left on the outermost corner of its plate. Continuing tectonic movement caused slumping and rifting, with the organic-rich Cretaceous rocks becoming deeply buried, forming a vast hydrocarbon kitchen. I mean VAST. Have a look at this resource map I have posted on Twitter -

https://twitter.com/KQuick20704342/status/1743909817155309710/photo/1

- you can see that Trinidad is at the intersection of the prolific Western Atlantic Margin (Guyana/Suriname Basin), and the Eastern Venezuelan Basin. Venezuela has more oil than any country on earth - more than the KSA. So why is it not a super-rich nation? - the answer is political - Venezuela is in effect a failed state.

Anyway, back to the history. Around 30 Ma, huge influxes of sand from what is now the middle part of Trinidad flowed southwards underwater into a large rift, forming extensive turbidites. These are now called the Herrera Sands. Then during The Miocene (23 - 5 Ma) and Pliocene (5.4 - 2.4 Ma), a series of compressive events occurred as the Caribbean and S. American tectonic plates squeezed together. This caused extensive faulting, folding and even thrusting (sorry, it means something different in geology - thrusting is where one sequence of rock strata gets pushed up over itself, so that you get a repetition of the same rocks - in some Trinidad locations you can drill vertically through the same oil reservoir twice). The main structure beneath the SW Trinida peninsula is the Los Bajos Fault. which runs WNW - ESE, and acts as the feeder from the deep oil kitchen up to the network of lesser faults that run up into the Herrera Sands reservoirs. These reservoirs include anticlines, fault closures, thrust/fault closures, plus the occasional salt diapir. Cory Moruga is just to the NE of the Los Bajos Fault.

The oilfields surrounding Cory-Moruga have been tapped for decades, and are now largely depleted - they need CO2EOR, but that's another story. I have dug up some MEEI data from when these field were in their youth - 1992. Moruga E, W & N -79K Bbl per year, 13.5 MMBbl cumulative from start. Plus Penal-Barrackpore just to the North - 1096K Bbl per year, 101MM Bbl since start. All these fields still produce.

Whether it is a trivial thing to change chokes or not is not the point. Yes, it is a straightforward physical operation, but the whole point is to get a choke size that gives you maximal flow, but at a stable rate. You can do this on a trial-and-error basis, but good luck with that. Most people would start with a calculation of likely flow using measured variables - the original calculation is Gilbert's equation - I can't get this to copy properly here, but you can Google: Gilbert equation +choke.

This is pretty accurate - in one study, arithmetic prediction of over 1000 gas wells had a correlation with real-world flow rates of 0.8978. Later work by Tangren, Guo and others has produced modified equations that bring R up to almost 1. To optimise the flow by choke diameter you would then use the Vogel equation - again it is too complex to copy it here, but again Google: Vogel equation +choke.

The point I was trying to make was that the original Reddit note by Methodology

https://www.reddit.com/r/PredatorOilandGasPRD/comments/t8ssg0/mou1_the_rharb_basin_net_pay_vs_well_flow_rate/

may be underestimating the likely flow rates that we will (hopefully soon!) see from the MOU-Fan.

There was some discussion on Telegram concerning chokes for gas flow testing. I posted this:

Take a look at the Reddit post about well productivity from the Rharb Basin. Different size chokes were used, mostly around half inch (or 32/64 as the Americans annoyingly put it). I have suggested that PRD have higher pressured and larger reservoirs, so may well be able to flow test using larger chokes, hence get better flow rates per metre than have SDX.

This article on Eni's (now failed) project on the southern Morocco Atlantic shelf may be of interest to the financially-minded who may wish to compare with Guercif economics - it contains data on projected break-evens, IRR, NPV etc.

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/ci/research-analysis/could-enis-nfw-unveil-further-potential-offshore-morocco.html

Someone has been able to buy 4710 shares @ 10p - same trade, six times. Is this some kind of mystic number that is supposed to guarantee success?

@SandyB (+anyone else looking for trade data). lse is not showing any trades today, but the real LSE is - see:

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/PRD/predator-oil-gas-holdings-plc/trade-recap

I put a diagram on Twitter that may be of interest:

https://twitter.com/KQuick20704342/status/1742115469648351510

@MEM - The post here last week you mention was referring to Regeneron in RSA. Totally different geology & origin of gases.

Gas composition for MOU-1 was RNS'd on 6th July 2021. Between 605 and 1487m - methane, plus traces of C2, C3 & C4. No Helium. RNS of 13th June 2023 confirmed the connection of reservoirs at various levels in MOU-3, thus gas composition would be expected to be the same for the whole basin - "The presence of overpressured gas trapped at shallow depths in a common structural closure above the next Ma and TGB-6 targets has de-risked vertical thermogenic gas charge from deeply buried source rocks generating dry gas. Migration pathways can now be identified on seismic based on the early MOU-3 drilling results." This was an extremely important statement that appears to have been overlooked by many - put simply, it means 'it's very big and it's all connected.'

Happy holidays to all, and we wish you and your families a peaceful and very prosperous new year.

@Gudin - perhaps the idea is to use proven production to underpin reserves-based lending.

Translation: "Damn, you've proven me wrong again. But whatabout..."

I would wager that there is some major misunderstanding here, unless it is deliberate obfuscation. This article sums up what may or may not happen to Azeri gas getting to Europe (or not) via the proposed increased capacity of the TANAP pipeline. There is absolutely zero chance of it being routed to Morocco, assuming Azerbaijan are ever able to produce it, and the TANAP owners being able to justify the huge development costs. Bizarre comment.

https://eurasianet.org/plans-for-doubling-azerbaijans-gas-flows-to-europe-on-hold

"The plans to double exports of Azeri gas to Europe were agreed under a memorandum of understanding between the European Union and Azerbaijan signed in July last year. The agreement was signed in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine the previous February and growing fears that the loss of Russian gas imports of upwards of 180 billion cubic meters a year would leave Europe starved of gas and suffering widespread power outages.

The wording however was not that of a formal commitment, signalling only that the two sides had agreed to "aspire" to support doubling Azeri gas exports to Europe to "at least 20 billion cubic meters of gas annually by 2027, in accordance with commercial viability and market demand." But while Europe has faced unprecedented increases in energy prices, a continent-wide energy shortage has been avoided thus far thanks to greatly increasing imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and boosting power generation from other sources such as coal, nuclear and renewables.

This has left both sides facing a conundrum. If there is no gas shortage, there is no guaranteed market for the extra gas Azerbaijan is supposed to supply, and no reason to invest in expanding either production or the capacity of the pipelines.

At the same time, it's still unclear just how much extra gas Azerbaijan will be able to supply, and when."

I would agree with Graham that the section worded

"MOU-3 - 1,406.0 to 1,412.0 metres RKB (within Moulouya Fan interval)" ... "Subject to establishing the potential quantum of gas flow rate for the Moulouya Fan interval in MOU-3, an option to replace the Ma Sand test in MOU-1 would be considered as follows: MOU-4 - 873.85 to 879.85 metres RKB (within Moulouya Fan interval)."

implies that management think there is a good chance that just the relatively thin section of the MOU-Fan reservoir to be tested will supply enough gas for the initial CNG operation. Why make this potential change? - if there is a good enough gas flow from this interval at MOU-3, there will almost certainly be the same rate from MOU-4 (making what some might consider to be a big assumption that there is no reservoir compartmentalisation). Two producer wells will be required to ensure continuity of supply in case there is a problem with one well, or if maintenance is needed.

Now I need some collective help in interpretation of the rest of that RNS, specifically on financing. It is clear that the following are fully funded from existing cash resources:

* T-Rex (Cory-Moruga) acquisition.

* 4 x well workovers on C-M.

* CNG pilot development.

I assume that the following are fully funded, although it is not specifically stated:

* The rigless testing programme as detailed.

* 5 x EIAs for new Guercif drill sites.

NOT currently funded, and potentially from C-M cash flow if nothing else comes sooner:

* Jurassic carbonate 1100m well

Funding status not specifically mentioned:

* Appraisal of shallow sands found at MOU-3, plus the Ma sands - one well to 800m, one to 1000m, both apparently new sites, since EIAs are being processed for both.

Anyone have any (sensible) observations on this, please?

Lonny had better check the potential drill sites for the Jurassic carbonate prospect - the new motorway route will likely run right over the top, as it connects the existing A2 motorway (100m from MOU-2) to the planned upgrade of the Mediterranean port of Nador, for which LNG facilities are planned.

Bad - Rod is back

Good - Bo is no longer a Director, Rob Edwards is gone. Eric Sondergaard is back.

Very good - "In due course, the new Board will update shareholders regarding the implementation of a new strategy that will focus solely around developing the Disko magmatic massive sulphide project in Greenland."

I would be very interested to hear the views of folks who have been shareholders for a few years.

Far too hot today to be an armchair geologist/ceo/strategist, so doing it from a hammock on the veranda. Today would be the last day this year to give an update, before everybody goes away for a couple of weeks, mentally and/or physically. Not a good idea to issue a C-M CPR without a mention of progress in Morocco. It would only be worthwhile issuing an update if there is something concrete – firm dates – to mention. If not, better to wait until January, then issue the CPR timed so that the RNS can also confirm that flow testing has actually started. What would I hope to see in an update? – A statement of strategy for 2024. Here's my PowerPoint!

Consider this:

💲More money was raised a few months ago than was required for the bare-bones plan.

💲Further cash has been saved by getting C-M cheaper than anticipated.

💲A reduced flow testing programme has saved a bit more.

💲There is the possibility of the CNG trucks being paid for by Afriquia.

💲Debt finance or leasing are possibilities for the rest of the CNG plant.

My guess is that Paul & Lonny are overheating their calculators working out the best way of using this cash to achieve:

🦖Short Term Objective – next 6 months – achieve positive cash flow, avoid further dilution, and be independent of a particularly fickle market. This may be either by -

🎇Testing just enough of Guercif to convert the MOU to a GSA, and getting the CNG operation up & running, or,

🎇Re-entering C-M Snowcap-1 and flowing oil. Given the frequently noted T & T traits of procrastination, incompetence, indolence & corruption, this would not be my personal choice, but since I know next to nothing about this specific opportunity, will have to defer to Paul & Lonny's expertise & experience.

🦖Mid Term Objective – 6-12 months – use the cash flow to work up Guercif to readiness for sale, by

🎇Drilling MOU-3 Twin to appraise the Middle Sands.

🎇Drilling Jurassic carbonate reef to determine reservoir characteristics and dimensions.

🎇Comprehensive testing of all remaining MOU-Fan horizons, using Sandjet for the friable reservoirs, as well as the newly-drilled Middle Sands & Jurassic. This would determine connectivity and volumes as well as flow rates for the whole basin.

🎇Sell all or a majority of PGVM, the Moroccan subsidiary.

🦖Longer Term Objective – 12-24 months

🎇Develop C-M, assuming it is the huge opportunity Paul claims - the Herrera Sands have produced one hell of a lot of oil, and this is just about the last undeveloped prospect.

🎇Set up a partnership CO2EOR business in T & T, as the country's authorities are now requiring for all oil operations - noteworthy that Paul is a member of the T & T EOR steering committee.

🎇Sell the Irish assets after the Greens are kicked out at the next elections – either Autumn 2024 or latest Spring 2025.

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https://www.royalmint.com/aboutus/press-centre/a-roar-some-reveal-the-royal-mint-unveils-new-50p-coins-featuring-iconic-dinosaur-specimens--including-t-rex/