Member Info for KeithOz

They know there is shallow gas in MOU-3, because it was at such high pressure that it nearly blew out the well. They now want to confirm how laterally extensive this reservoir might be, hence the step-out wells. My guess is that just testing what they think is the same reservoir in MOU-4 will not provide this information - only that there is shallow gas at MOU-4, which might be the same formation. Once they have three wells available for testing, they can use pressure transient analysis and other techniques to provide more comprehensive information to prove reservoir extent and connectivity, and give a much greater degree of certainty on what could prove to be an additional sizeable resource.

@Jimmy - I think that this interval is now given lower, not higher, risk status, since it is shown as Contingent rather than Prospective in the ITR. In the 13th July RNS (MOU-4 update) it was determined that there was a gross interval of 50m after Nutech analysis, so this appears still to be a future testing target. I assume the reason that testing is not being conducted under Phase 2, is that they want to wait until the two MOU-3 derivatives are drilled, so that they can determine reservoir connectivity over what could be a very large area.

@Nigel - there are plenty of billabongs in the UK, just a different name, people would think I was more than a little odd if I were to suggest that when you are asleep you would be doing so in an oxbow lake. "Just my honest opinion".

Here's another interesting fact for you, considering your continued mockery of one of my nationalities: 85% of all Australians with a higher degree and professional qualification were born overseas - I, my wife & my elder daughter are all within that 85% - none of us drink beer, speak with an accent like a steel garage door being slammed, nor wear hats with corks hanging from the brim. Do you realise that Crocodile Dundee was just a Hollywood film?

@Jimmy. I think this is PRD doing their usual trick of changing names without telling anyone. I assume that these MOU-4 shallow sands are the same as those untestable behind casing in MOU-3, awaiting new drilling. They are shown in the schematic on p.17 of the ITR in light pink, where they are described as 'Top M1 Sand Seabou equivalent in Rharb' and I assume are the bottom line of the table on p.42. as Contingent Resource, 'A Sand Shallow', where testing is to be confirmed. I assume testing is TBC since they will wait until the two new MOU-3 wells are drilled before testing in MOU-4, since on p.17 they were described only as 'shows' in MOU-4. The classification as Contingent rather than Prospective is due to gas entry at high pressure into MOU-3. Confusing, I agree.

That's researchhyphentree.

proactive video from eog yesterday may be of interest from about 2m onwards - talking about the licensing & commercial issues for ireland, much is relevant to corrib south.

https://*********************/media/europa-oil-gas-says-inishkea-west-gas-prospect-presents-lucrative-development-opportunity

@Wacky - I'm in full agreement on the location, it is the same as Paul has previously indicated as the culmination of the structure, 1.7km to the SE of MOU-4. However, I don't think we can necessarily assume that this is an indication that the flow tests are going well, since the MOU-4 Jurassic section was not scheduled to be tested until Phase 2. In fact, any testing of MOU-4 in Phase 1 was only a contingency. I suspect the rapid firm booking of the SV101 drill & team is linked to the CHAR announcement today regarding their imminent drilling plans.

@Peter - It's obviously @Findme who is selling. and Yes.

Drill booked and long-lead time items organised, ready for an April-May drilling of the Jurassic carbonate (Titanosaurus). Even better, it's fully funded.

Just for fun, I put a flow rate poll for Phase 1 (all tested horizons combined) on Investor Guru.

GRH has recently suggested that Shaikan / Sheikh Ali is a 'rounding error' compared to Guercif. The Shaikan 2019 CPR gives 2P recoverable resources of 622 MMBOE , which is equivalent to 3.7 TCF of gas. That will do nicely for starters.

@IJWT - "Appointment of an Investment Bank as advisor would have needed an RNS." It's not only investment banks who put deals together. A well-connected outfit specialising in resources, especially with an office in the Emirates, "offering a full range of independent corporate finance and capital markets advisory services for both public and private companies". would be perfect.

RNS 15th May 2023 " Predator Oil & Gas Holdings Plc (LSE: PRD), the Jersey based Oil & Gas Company with near-term gas operations focussed on Morocco, announces the appointment of Fox-Davies Capital as joint broker to the Company."

The quote above is from the first paragraph of their website: https://www.fox-davies.com/

Perhaps I should have made it more clear - that is not my prediction of share price - it is Lionel's prediction of value per share, the two are rarely the same.

Share prices go up and down, often unpredictably. Undeveloped resources may or may not be commercialized, or not in the expected quantities or at the hoped for profitability. These are all well-known risks.

Market makers do not 'play games' or 'manipulate prices', as is frequently claimed here. MMs use algorithms to maintain a balanced book and maximise trading volume - that is how they make a profit. There are no malevolent dwarves trying to steal shares away from naïve private investors. Yesterday's sub-penny drop in low volume is irrelevant in the scheme of things, especially after a substantial rise over a short period of above-average volumes. Of course the usual suspects emerge from the woodwork proclaiming doom. I do not know if they are short term traders hoping to buy cheap, or even paid by someone else so that their masters can buy more cheaply. Whatever, it is also irrelevant - just remember that they are promoting their own interests, that may well be the opposite of yours.

Something that is worth concentrating upon is the effects on the value of PRD's assets due to the staged removal of risk. Lionel Therond is one of the most respected analysts working in the oil & gas sector. He was the author of the Fox Davies Capital note issued on 13th July 2023. here it is:

https://danielfoxdavies.sharepoint.com/Shared%20Documents/Forms/AllItems.aspx?id=%2FShared%20Documents%2FPublic%20Research%20Documents%2FPredator%20Oil%20%26%20Gas%2FPredator%20Oil%20flash%2013%2E07%2E23%2Epdf&parent=%2FShared%20Documents%2FPublic%20Research%20Documents%2FPredator%20Oil%20%26%20Gas&p=true&ga=1

He calculates that the unrisked NPV10 of the MOU-Fan & Middle Sands is $1176.4M. That is their value today, assuming that 1/. They are producing commercially as planned, and 2/. The cash flows are reduced at a compound annual rate of 10%, to account for the time value of money. How do we get to 'unrisked'?

* Produce combined flow rates at or in excess of 50mmcfgd from around 150m of reservoir intervals. As you know that de-risking events will be in two phases - the first finished this month, the second next month.

* Agree a commercial contract with a suitable gas distributor. Again, as you know, the main terms have already been negotiated with Afriquia Gaz, the largest distributor in the country, that happens to be owned by Morocco's PM.

* Set up the CNG operation - once again, you already know that the money is there to do this.

* Secure an Exploitation Concession - PRD have said they should be ready to apply for this early next month, and given the influence of their partner and the urgent desire to produce indigenous gas, this should be granted rapidly.

Removal of these risks gives an NPV10 of £922M at fx rate of 1 : 1.275. With 565.2M shares in issue, that is £1.63p per share. Just for MOU-Fan & Middle sands. No Jurassic, no 'running room', no Ireland, no T & T.

By end of next month.

Sorry, forgot to put this up. I believe the legend underneath this map is incorrect. I am pretty sure it should be:

Miocene is orange - dashed lines are proven prospects (MOU-Fan, etc. Triassic is green. Red dash line is max extent of Jurassic prospect, yellow is the high priority Jurassic. Dashed purple lines are the Oxfordian sands. The two overlapping purple prospects to the southwest are the two Jurassic prospects shown on the seismic slices on p.39.

If anyone has a different view, please post.

Even set for English, I still turn up Taliban PRD (Public Relations Dept.) Dare not open it in case ASIO / GCHQ is tracking me.

@wonderer - Jasper is correct as to the definition of commerciality, but I anticipate rates well in excess of that.

Phase 1 (conventional) testing is limited to the more stable sands that management believe will flow successfully with explosive perforation, and collectively produce at 10-20mmcfgd in order to meet a probable initial demand for CNG via Afriquia Gaz.

Phase 2 (SandJet perforation) is covering a lot more horizons, particularly the friable sands that may have been compromised during drilling or where explosive perforation might result in compaction and reduced production. Such unconsolidated reservoirs will typically have higher porosity & permeability. SandJet is also able to accurately target thinner horizons that would be difficult to perforate with conventional methods. I am hoping that this phase will result in an additional 30mmcfgd.

For your reference, a combined total of 50mmcfgd, at a profit of $10 per mcf (maybe more), would bring in $180M / £142M per annum, potentially giving a forward P:E of 0.5. Just for the first 3 producing wells from this area.

Learning curve? Flatline.

Just took a quick look at volumes. Before the Jan 12th Ops update, average daily volume was around 2m shares. Since Jan 12th, daily rates have more than doubled, averaging 4.4M, giving turnover of 53M since then. So less than 10% of the company has changed hands, but the share price has increased 30%. Today, as at time of writing (so less than the first hour) only around 600K shares, or 0.1% of shares in issue, have changed hands, but the share price is up by over 10%.

Several folks are in agreement that institutions are starting to nibble - it is interesting to speculate what will happen when two or more big investors decide they each want a 3% stake. PRD shares are very tightly held - if you are a holder, illiquidity is your friend, but if you are a johnny-come-lately buyer, the reverse will be true, big time.

Fasten your seat belts, February is going to be very interesting.

@Bob @ CCC. Sorry, I'll go away & sulk in a dark corner. I didn't write it, just quoted someone more learned. 👨🏽‍🎓