Member Info for KeithOz

@Jimmy - I am currently away, so using just a phone, but from memory the Appendix slide does indeed suggest that gas was detected in at least the middle of the three shallow samples taken in MOU-2. It was understandable that the whole borehole should be gas-free if thermogenic and reliant upon migration from below, but I have to admit that when they started talking in detail about biogenic gas in MOU-1 & MOU-3, I was puzzled that nothing has shown up in the analogous strata in MOU-2.

I can only assume that using Pure-Bore Silicate drilling mud in MOU-2, rather than Ultradrill used in the other three boreholes, has somehow obscured the earlier results, and it is only recent re-examination that shows gas traces. I think @Razorman is also correct that they did penetrate the MOU-Fan, but by then the borehole was so compromised that it was impossible to tell at the time. Detailed chip samples from clearly identified strata in MOU-3 & MOU-4, correlated with what was found from MOU-2, appear to have confirmed this - perhaps using RockWash tech again?

Paul noticeably did not draw attention to this re-interpretation - whether this is poor communications or playing cards close to the chest we will find out sometime in the upcoming Quarter.

Some here are planning their retirements, and trying to work out how much the Guercif licences could be worth to an industry buyer. I'm not going to do the sums for you, but will revise some info I posted here last October & November.

1. Capricorn (formerly Cairn Energy) 2022. At that time Capricorn had a mix of hydrocarbons, with roughly two thirds as gas. Reserves & Resources were equivalent to 420 BCF. The abandoned deal with Tullow valued Capricorn at £658M. The subsequent deal (also abandoned) with NewMed gave a valuation of £849M. At 1 GBP to 1.275 USD, that gives $2B per TCF, followed by $2.58B per TCF.

2. NewMed Energy. Initial offer of $2B by BP / ADNOC for 50% of NewMed, revised to $2.2B by independent valuation committee, then abandoned due to fallout of Gaza conflict. NewMed are 45% owner & operator of Leviathan, a field with an estimated 23 TCF of (biogenic!) gas. Thus the $2.2B was for 5.2 TCF. $425M per TCF doesn't sound like much of a deal, until you take a closer look at the bottom line. Not much profit in Leviathan - it's offshore, deepwater, very high costs per drill (someone here suggested $150M a shot?), very high capital costs for undersea pipelines and processing equipment on shore. Gas is contracted to be sold mostly to Israel for around $5 per mmcf. Corporate tax is 23%. Additional hydrocarbon royalty and special profits levy is insane – up to 62.5% - see last paragraph on p.2 of this:

https://www.oecd.org/fossil-fuels/ISR_v2.pdf

I have previously worked as Business Development Director, Europe Middle East & Africa, for three multinationals. What would I be thinking if I were in that position for BP or ADNOC, one keen on diversifying away from oil, the other keen on diversification geographically (ADNOC is 100% Gulf), with a major deal that had just fallen through?

I suggest I would be looking very hard at a large scale, high selling price, low-cost, onshore, close to infrastructure project, in a stable jurisdiction, with a low tax regime, well away from Houtis, etc. Especially if the current owner/operators had indicated they were keen to realise value from the project, and would have detailed flow rates and volumetrics available by the end of next quarter.

Unless of course, the people on here saying 'this is all a con, there is no gas' are correct. Next week they will be telling us that the Proactive video is a deepfake.

In my post yesterday starting the thread '7 TCF? No.' I gave a verbatim transcription of what Paul Griffiths said in the presentation on Thursday evening. Unfortunately, some here still seem to doubt that the small MOU area has the capacity to produce 7 TCF of biogenic methane, some even claim they do not believe Paul said this. Characteristically, these folk completely fail to provide any reasoning or evidence whatsoever to back up their negative assertions.

I posted here about biogenic gas on 4th November 2023. Perhaps it is of help if I expand on that post a bit.

Biogenic methane is formed in situ when bacteria chomp on organic material that has been deposited as part of the sediment. This is usually expressed as %TOC (total organic carbon). Here's some info about source rocks at Guercif from a scientific paper (Beauchamp, W. 1996, p.1478) that's also referenced in the PRD 2022 CPR under S. 4.1.2, Source Rocks:

"Pliensbachian source rocks yield total organic carbon values between 1.66 and 3.87%" ... and ... "Maastrichtian source rocks yield high total organic values ∼18% and have excellent potential for generating hydrocarbons."

The methanogenic bacteria can operate at temperatures of up to 70°C. We know that the geothermal gradient at Guercif is 43°C per km, so these bacteria can produce gas down to 1750m, which is consistent with the change from biogenic to thermogenic gas seen in MOU-1 (RNS 6th July 2021)

A publication from the British Geological Survey

https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/509720/1/OR14056.pdf Section 3.1, p.10.

rates the methane content mg per g of source rock: 3 to 5 mg/g = Fair. 5 to 10 mg/g = Good. 10mg/g+ (ie 1% +) is regarded as Excellent. We know from the above that the TOC of Guercif sediments is way above 1%, and it appears that PRD are using an average of 3% TOC.

How has PRD calculated the amount of biogenic gas that has been generated in the MOU area?

* Area of 100km², and depth of 1.75km = 175 km³

* Rock density, assume 2.5 = 2.5 million g per m³

* 2.5M x 0.03 = 75g methane per m³

* Methane density = 0.657kg/m³

* 75 / 657 = 1.14 m³ methane per m³ source rock

* 1.14B m³ methane per km³ source rock

* 35.3 ft³ per m³ = 40.2 BCF per km³

* 175km³ x 40.2 = 7.035 TCF.

There can of course be no guarantee that all gas generated has been trapped and can be commercially extracted. Positive indicators of hundreds of metres of gas shows in all wells, and overpressure in all wells demonstrating effective seals, are a very good start.

Since I am 12742km in a straight line from Mayfair, it has taken a while for the seismic vibrations from the presentation to reach me. I cannot understand how attendees were not severely impacted by what must be about M9 on the Richter scale. To me, this is the most significant bit of what was said, suggest you open up pp. 13 & 14 while you read this.

Paul is pointing to the top centre diagram on p.13 of the PowerPoint - it shows a small part of the licence enclosed in a purple line, including (only) MOU-1, 2,3 & 4. He is talking about the significance of biogenic gas worldwide, particularly in the Mediterranean Basin, and the implications for its presence at Guercif:

"Recently we have just completed an analysis of what could be generated in our area here (he points as above) of about 100km­­², which is where we think the (biogenic gas) potential lies, and that comes out at 7 TCF. Like, and that's not a big number for biogenic gas, biogenic gas generates huge volumes, so we know that not only do we have the potential to fill our traps (here), but any other traps that have developed.

He then goes on to talk about the additional (thermogenic gas) Jurassic opportunity, using top left of p.14 of the PowerPoint.

"This prospect is 177km² of closure, that's the limit of the structural closure....where we are going to drill we have 249m of closure within the carbonate. We're using 50m only for the 3P (upside resource estimate). Recent (?) work shows that this (?) here (points to light purple section) below the carbonate, is in the oil window. It is likely to be a gas condensate source.....it's a world-class prospect."

Paul skips over the top right of p.14, that gives the 3P numbers for the Jurassic prospect (remember based on only one fifth of the vertical closure) - 637 BCF gas, 79 M boe condensates.

Now look at p. 6, bottom centre - a map of all 26 prospects that are being retained by PRD, after the recently-announced relinquishment of part of the licence area.

7 TCF is just a part of the opportunity here. For the nitpickers, not in my opinion, in Paul's and his consultants' opinions.

Have a great weekend, but careful with those cornflakes.

@TheBold. My profuse apologies for misreading what you have written. I am delighted that you actually acknowledge that:

1. There is external interference causing delays to Predator activities - as has been intimated on several occasions, including by Paul Griffiths last night.

2. Predator has assets that promise a financial return - from just one of many prospects - that dwarfs all other companies currently operating in Morocco, and possibly any other company with such a small current market capitalisation.

It is indeed a pleasure to be in full agreement.

@TheBold. Thank you for making it clear to everyone that you talk total nonsense. No one apart from you has mentioned any of these companies. However, it has been alleged that you just happen to be a large shareholder of another O & G company with operations in Morocco, and that you spend a lot of time and effort posting on lse and elsewhere, often several times a day, in support of that company. In the interests of transparency, perhaps you would like to inform the readers of this BB if this is true, and if so, which company, and of your relationship with certain members of its board.

@mossman - I'm aware of these difficulties. They do not explain why equipment already in-country, urgently required by Predator, has been withheld by other operators after they have finished using it, thus preventing Predator from carrying out their work schedule. Nor do they explain why ONHYM has done everything required to enable timely issuance of licences, but sign off from other ministries has been inexplicably delayed or 'forgotten'.

I spoke with a number of people shortly after the release of the presentation, and touched base again this evening (UK time). Our pre-presentation concerns were:

* What has happened to Extension #4, since nothing can happen without it.

* Why no spud date for MOU-5

* Possible ongoing dirty tricks campaign to delay PRD progress in Morocco.

We now know that 1 & 2 are progressing as expected, 3 is still a concern.

It would appear that Sandjet testing and MOU-5 drilling will both be taking place in May, with results of both by the end of May. Volumetrics & reservoir connectedness data may not be available until June.

Interesting that PG says that data currently available suggests up to 7 TCF. That's worth a lot of money. Also interesting is that we now know not only that this is a very big system, but that overpressure was present in MOU-1, MOU-3 at top & bottom (so presumably also in between) and at the bottom of MOU-4. If you re-read the ITR, it is clear that for that document they have only evaluated a limited number of potential reservoirs, and in fact refer to the many other potential gas sources within the system that have not been taken into account.

I haven't seen the transcript of the comments relating to potential purchasers having already expressed interest, maybe more was said afterwards at the bar - PE interest does not excite me, they usually want not just their pound of flesh but your soul as well.

All the feedback from the non-prostitute using shareholders was around 90% positive. Clearly the Morocco assets are as valuable as we thought, it is just commercialising them is taking longer than originally planned - this is of course not at all unusual. Has anyone here who has done a real job ever worked on a project that came in on time and on budget?

@TLBLDN - Thanks for your input, a far more useful post than the majority on here - why should I ridicule it? I don't recall doing anything to offend you in the past - if I did, my apologies - Keith

What I like -

* Focus on Morocco.

* Sandjet & CTU both available by end April.

* Lots of detail on Sandjet performance.

* p.14 - Revenue of $13.8 Bn from MOU-5.

* p.8 - MOU-3 was overpressured by 700psi at TD - we already know the shallow sands were +120psi, so presumably overpressured all the way up.

What I don't like -

* Licence Extension #4 still hanging.

* No spud date for MOU-5.

Neutral -

*No news on T&T or (especially) Ireland - but hopefully something for IRL in the next fortnight.

A little too far for me to come for the presentation, but I look forward to feedback from those able to attend. A has already been said, Happy Birthday Michael Caine.

Handcuffs? I think he is more of a cable ties & duct tape kind of guy.

That not all posters here have your best interests at heart. Some may quote apparently factual information that relates to oil wells, not gas wells, but forget to mention that. Some may be large shareholders in direct competitor companies, operating in the same country and after the same customers. Some may even be associates of the CEO/Founder of such a company. They may also be active on other social media, such as Telegram, pushing the same FUD. If you are unfamiliar with a poster, it's always worth clicking on the poster's name to see what they have said previously about this and other companies, and form your own opinions.

Other indicators:

CEG RNS 20th December 2022: "Following mutual discussions, the Company and Predator consider that a broader collaboration in relation to CO2 EOR projects in the Company's existing portfolio of mature oil fields across Trinidad could provide a mutually beneficial outcome for both parties, leveraging shared past experiences utilising CO2 EOR techniques and methodologies."

PRD RNS 20th December 2022: "Predator and Challenger Energy have agreed to establish a collaboration in relation to CO2 EOR activities and projects in other areas in Trinidad, including but not limited to potential application of CO2 EOR techniques across Challenger Energy's other fields".... "Leveraging Predator's expertise in CO2 EOR techniques and methodologies."

and

"An Engagement Letter with Optiva has been executed by the Company regarding any potential M & A transaction with, or an investment by parties directly into, Predator Oil & Gas Trinidad Limited ("POGT"), a wholly owned subsidiary of the company, to gain specific exposure to CO2 EOR activities. Any such external investment specifically into POGT would allow this project to progress simultaneously with Predator's other projects, while not diluting the value of those other projects."

14 months later, and just two months after completion of the acquisition, PRD has a small ops team in place for Cory-Moruga, hopefully their remit will extend to other T & T projects in due course.

Financial close of any deal takes months - all the relevant & time-consuming regulatory approval has to be obtained.

The Cory-Moruga deal was announced 20th December 2022, not completed until 7th November 2023. I would not expect any further T & T deals to be much different.

This morning CEG have announced a farmout of 60% of their Uruguay block to Chevron, The RNS also says " Chevron will pay to CEG US$12.5 million cash on completion of the Transaction, these funds will be used to support the further development of the Company's business."

CEG are presenting alongside PRD at the end of next week - I am curious if some cooperation on T & T assets will be announced, perhaps a restart of the CO2EOR operations.

An alternative possibility is that CEG will focus their efforts on Uruguay, where they will still have some financial commitment - this is not a free-carry - and get out of T & T completely, as they have previously hinted. It just happens that PRD have the best knowledge of the potential of CEG's T & T assets, so possibly a further deal there.

According to the Tawheed, Volume 9, Book 93, Number 476:

Narrated Ibn Umar:

The Prophet said, "The keys of the unseen are five and none knows them but Allah: (1) None knows what gender is in the womb, but Allah: (2) None knows what will happen tomorrow, but Allah; (3) None knows when it will rain, but Allah; (4) None knows where he will die, but Allah (knows that); (5) and none knows when the Hour will be established, but Allah."

Since modern science has allowed the knowledge of 1 & 3 to become more widespread, may I suggest, without causing offence to the Faithful, we replace them with 1. When the next PRD RNS will be issued, and 3. If PG will stick to the timelines therein.

More like 'At the Zoo' - Bookends, 1968. Calm down, people.

Looking at the Europa presentation, I have just realised that Inishkea West is in 700m deep water, as opposed to 200-250m for Corrib South. That increases the engineering costs substantially. So, which should I choose?

PRD has an important advantage over Europa. Corrib South is a direct continuation of the Corrib Triassic Sherwood sandstone reservoir, both prospects are within the same 4-way dip closure. I would expect Vermilion to be pretty confident that they know the geology.

Although Inishkea has the same potential reservoir, it is separated from Corrib & Corrib South, and is fault-bounded. Inversion during the Cretaceous has resulted in removal of at least 1km of strata from above the prospect together with mobility of the Triassic salt layer, leading to speculation that the seal may be poor. Corrib South retains full thickness of overburden.

Europa have been trying to farm out Inishkea from at least early 2019, possibly before that.

Since there's not much to talk about at the moment.

When I was a child, I met Nubar at the opening of the theatre named after him, and which he had financed, at Canterbury University. His father owned 5% of the Iran Oil Company - Nubar originally worked for him, but didn't receive a salary. After the Chairman of Royal Dutch Shell married his father's mistress, Nubar continued his oil career working there. Having learned the ropes, he went about buying up promising oilfield locations in the Middle East, developing them, then selling them on, thus becoming one of the wealthiest men of his time.

During WW2 he was a British spy, setting up escape routes across Europe. He was well known for his extravagance and eccentricities - he drove around in a gold-plated London taxi that was fitted out with a Rolls-Royce engine. Despite always being surrounded by attractive women, he is famous for saying "the best number for a dinner party is two – myself and a damn good head waiter."

Lots of photos of him (& his cars) on Shutterstock - https://www.shutterstock.com/editorial/search/nubar

I'm sure Graham will fill us in on the rest.